Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Can Superpoor India Become a Superpower?

"India is superpoor, not superpower"
Sashi Tharoor

“It is still 80 percent nation and 50 percent democracy”
Ramachandra Guha
Source: Where Are the Poor and Where Are the Poorest?

Last year, Indian writer, diplomat and politician Sashi Tharoor said "India is superpoor, not superpower". This week, Indian historian Ramachandra Guha went a step further and suggested that "India can not and must not become a superpower". Guha added that “India should not try to be a dominant and powerful country, but a less discontented nation.”

How poor is India? An Oxford study found last year that India has more poor than the poor population of all of sub-Saharan Africa. The latest World Bank data shows that India's poverty rate of 27.5%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points higher than Pakistan's 17.2%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with similar or lower poverty rates than Pakistan's.

“A superpower is a political, economic and military giant that has global reach,” Tharoor said. “The US still holds that position. It can fight a war in East Asia or any other part of the world. But I can’t imagine China or India doing that.”

Given the many ethnic, regional, religious and caste fault lines running through the length and breadth of India, there have long been questions raised about India's identity as a nation. Speaking about it, the US South Asia expert Stephen Cohen of Brookings Institution said, " But there is no all-Indian Hindu identity—India is riven by caste and linguistic differences, and Aishwarya Rai and Sachin Tendulkar are more relevant rallying points for more Indians than any Hindu caste or sect, let alone the Sanskritized Hindi that is officially promulgated".

Acknowledging the reality of deep fault lines in Indian polity, Guha says: "Because of its size and diversity, because of the continuing poverty of many of its citizens, because it is (in historical terms) still a relatively young nation state, and because it remains the most recklessly ambitious experiment in history, the Republic of India was never going to have anything but a rocky ride.

Pakistan share of the world poor about the same as its share of the world population

"National unity and democratic consolidation were always going to be more difficult to achieve than in smaller, richer, more homogeneous and older countries."

Mr Guha argues that democracy and nationhood in India face the following major challenges:

1. India is home to some of the world's fiercest insurgencies which Indian military is attempting to put down in northeast, northwest and central India.

2. Religious fanaticism is "receding but by no means vanquished." A "sullen peace rather than an even-tempered tranquility" prevails in the country

3. There is increasing corrosion of public institutions. Political parties are becoming family businesses; the police and bureaucracy are heavily politicized; corruption is rampant and patronage trumps competence

4. Natural resources are rapidly degrading and depleting as population grows, causing severe problems for the rural poor.

5. There is growing economic disparity. One example: India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, is worth more than $20bn, and his new home is a 27-storey high, 400,000 sq ft building in Mumbai, where 60% of the people live in subhuman conditions in overcrowded slums.

I think both Tharoor and Guha make a lot of sense. The sad reality is that India is home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates, a country where nearly two-thirds of the people still practice open defecation. India really needs to focus on solving these basic domestic problems rather than trying to become a superpower through a massive arms buildup.

Here's a video of Ramachandra Guha on the subject:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Are India and Pakistan Failed States?

India Home to World's Largest Number of Poor, Hungry and Illiterate

India Leads the World in Open Defecation

India Tops in Illiteracy & Defense Spending

Indians Poorer than sub-Saharan Africans


Anonymous said...

India, the world's second fastest growing economy, has been ranked as poorer than its blighted enemy Pakistan in a United Nations report on global poverty.

The report also finds more 'gender equality' in conservative Pakistan than in 'tolerant' India.

Its findings amount to a wake-up call for a nation which has taken great pride in its rapid economic growth and the increasing clout of its billionaire business leaders but has failed to share the spoils with its poor. Britain's Department for Internmational Development has pointed to this chequered progress to justify its continuing aid to India.

The Human Development Report reveals that while India ranks slightly above Pakistan in its level of 'human development' – based on life expectancy, schooling and per capita income – its wider poverty level is worse than Pakistan's.


Anonymous said...

Superpower? 230 million Indians go hungry daily

With 21% of its population undernourished, nearly 44% of under-5 children underweight and 7% of them dying before they reach five years, India is firmly established among the world's most hunger-ridden countries. The situation is better than only Congo, Chad, Ethiopia or Burundi, but it is worse than Sudan, North Korea, Pakistan or Nepal.

This is according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) which combines the above three indicators to give us a Global Hunger Index (GHI) according to which India is 67th among the worst 80 countries in terms of malnourishment.

That's not all. Data collected by GHI researchers shows that while there has been some improvement in children's malnutrition and early deaths since 1990, the proportion of hungry in the population has actually gone up.

Today India has 213 million hungry and malnourished people by GHI estimates although the UN agency Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) puts the figure at around 230 million. The difference is because FAO uses only the standard calorie intake formula for measuring sufficiency of food while the Hunger Index is based on broader criteria.


Ashmit (India) said...

You are hilarious, Mr. Haq.

You are questioning india's potential, when not very long back you were fiercely advocating for viewing pak as a natural contendor for the 'superpower' tag.

Your implicit suggestion, therefore, is that pak is a better bet for heading a new world order.

I didnt know the fine afghan weed had found its way to silicon valley.

Mr. Haq, your rhetorical rants reek of emasculation and betrays a deep seated prejudice. The same prejudice for which you villify others.

Anonymous said...

rhetoric aside being a superpower isn't cheap the USSR collapsed under its weight and the US is in deep deep fiscal and social trouble and likely to collapse if it continues to spend $1 trillion a year on defence.

I think what India wants to be is a major world power ie 4 SSBNs 16 SLBMs each and ~500 nukes arsenal

1000 plane airforce, a blue water navy and a 3000 tank army.

I don't think it wants the ability to fight wars on the other side of the world like the US has.

By 2020 it will be the world's third largest economy so I don't think the spending will be unsustainable.

Harish said...

Riaz, you know what, i like you. :). Yep, i really do. Your dogged determination to stand against the world in the defence of a failed ideology, and the attempts to project misleading data in defiance of international media, remind me of the 300 spartans who stood against the million strong persians in the ancient times.

Alive said...

Indian psyche is to boast about anything which they do differnt. Give it a cultural theme and then dance around it. Adding some charm to anything and luring in westerners to the Majestic India which is in reality The Poorest India. But as it is a Secular state the West is more tilted towards them. After seeing your throughly researched posts i feel that actually now is the time for Pakistanis to take on the competition and pull a lead on India in social, cultural and economic fields. We can do it as we have the potential but May God Deliver us from Our Corrupt Leaders first. Ameen

Ashmit (India) said...

You are hilarious Mr. Haq.

You challenge India's potential, yet not very long back you were vociferously advocating for Pakistan to be viewed as a nation which has the makings of a superpower.

(You post titled - Arabs view pak as a potential superpower - http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/11/arabs-view-pakistan-as-potential.html) Nevermind the fact that, that the survey reveals that arabs WANT to see pakistan as a superpower, not that they EXPECT pakistan to become a superpower.

Nevertheless, your dismissal of India and advocacy for pak, carries the implicit suggestion that - pak is a better bet for heading a new world order.

I didn't know the fine afghan marijuana had made its way to the silicon valley.

I'll be the first to concede that India is far from perfect - but to argue that pak stands a better chance is downright delusional.

But if it's me, who's dreaming, then i'd love if you could enlighten us with some credible work by an authority on the subject, who backs you views on pak upstaging india in the race to become a superpower.

Anonymous said...

The west considers Pakstan to be the headquaters of international terrorism and this has lead to negatively publicity of Pakistan. Investments in Pakistan compared to India are negligible which is bad for the economy as jobs are generated are not keeping growing population which is leading to social problems. Yes its true India is worse off than Pakistan for now but the gap is closing and by 2020 India will overtake Pakistan in many human development issues. Its not that we Pakistanis can't out do India its just we have become too hung up on religion and scared of religious extremists instead of Allah. Classic example is showering of petals on the murder of governor taseer by lawyers. If lawyers who are supposed to be one of the most educated people can be so brainwashed by religion then what can we expect of ordinary pakistanis.
i sincerely hope and pray that The next Pakistani government invests a lot more on modern education and public health.

Anonymous said...

Riaz, why don't you get it into your head once and for all that South Asia's primary problem is their lack of cognitive ability (on average). Low IQ, enormous population = recipe for disaster.

I am an Indian now in the West, and have redneck friends who drive trucks. They're way sharper than the average middle class Indian. I'm sure Pakistanis are also similar to Indians in terms of their cognitive abilities.

Anyway, Indians keep bragging all the time, and do nothing about it.

Riaz Haq said...

Here are some excerpts of an NPR Fresh Air interview of Katherine Boo, the author of Behind the Beautiful Forevers:

.......Some inhabitants (of Mumbai slum Annawadi) lack any shelter and sleep outside. Rats commonly bite sleeping children, and barely a handful of the 3,000 residents have the security of full-time employment. Over the course of her time in Annawadi, Boo learned about the residents' social distinctions, their struggles to escape poverty, and conflicts that sometimes threw them into the clutches of corrupt government officials. Her book reads like a novel, but the characters are real.
BOO: Well, I'll describe it (the slum) this way. You come into the Mumbai International Airport, you make a turn, and you go past a lavish Hyatt and a beautiful hotel called the Grand Maratha. By the time you get to the Hyatt, which is about three minutes in your car, you've already gone past this place.

There's a rocky road that goes into it, and you turn in, and the first thing you notice when you get into this landscape of hand-built, makeshift, crooked huts is one of the borders of the slum - or it was I came in 2008 - was this vast lake of extremely noxious sewage and petrochemicals and things that the people modernizing the glamorous airport had dumped in the lake.

And so it was almost beachfront property on this foul, malarial lake, and all around it in this, the single open space in the slum were people cooking and bathing and fighting and flirting. And there were goats and water buffalo. There was a little brothel, and men would line up outside the little brothel. And there was a liquor still.

And mainly there were families and children who were trying their best to find a niche in the global market economy. Almost no one in Annawadi had permanent work. Six people out of 3,000 last I checked had permanent work.
DAVIES: One of the most remarkable things to read here was that you tell us in the book that no one in Annawadi was actually considered poor by traditional Indian benchmarks. Is that right? I mean, if they're not poor, who is poor?

BOO: Go to the village, and you'll see what poor is. No, so officially, the poverty lines in many countries, including India, are set so low that officially the people that I'm writing about look like part of the great success narrative of modern global capitalism. They look like the more than 100 million people who have been freed since liberalization in India in 1991 from poverty.

So usually in my work, I'm not looking to write about the poorest and abject. I'm not looking to make you feel sorry for people. I want readers to have a connection more blooded and complex than pity or revulsion. But really, the main point I have to say is that on the books, these men, women and children have succeeded in the global economy. They're the success stories.

But I hope what my book shows is that it's a little more complicated than that.

DAVIES: Well, I mean, so many of them are just on the edge of losing, you know, food and shelter for the day. I mean, are the truly poor, are they rural poor who sleep out in the open? I mean, who are the...?

BOO: Well, many people in Annawadi sleep out in the open, too, but when Asha(ph) - in the book, I follow Asha, the mother, who has used politics and corruption to try to give her daughter a college education, I follow her back home to Vidarbha, a very poor agricultural region.

And when Asha walks through the door, everybody can see on her face and the face of her children how good life is in the Mumbai slums. Asha's grandmother walks on all fours, she's so bent from agricultural labor. And when Asha walks in that door, she stands mast straight.,,,


Ashmit (India) said...

Let me begin by making clear that in my humble opinion, neither of the two countries are likely to become a superpower.

But since we are in fantasy-land, no harm in letting the creative juices flow.

So let’s consider the following.

Superpowers have massive economies and enjoy trading ties with nations across the world. India does better than Pakistan in this aspect. India is nearly 10 times in size and is growing nearly twice as fast as pak. Moreover, India’s trade with China alone is about half the size of Pak’s entire GDP.

Superpowers also boast of an impressive arsenal. Pak is believed to have more nukes, but other than that it lags on every front. Indian army is far larger (2.1 million strong). India boasts of a greater number of armored divisions, higher number of artillery guns, the two are however equally matched in terms of ballistic and cruise missiles. Indian airforce also scores one over pak. Higher number of aircrafts, with the likes of Su-30MKI, a 4.5 generations fighter, unquestionably the most advanced piece of weaponry in south asia. Now rafale is likely to come into the picture – and with BVR tech, JF-17s and F-16s can be painted from a distance that won’t allow pak fighters to engage the rafale. Again, in the navy, the less said about pak navy, the better.

Softpower and perception management is also critical for superpowers. By your own admission (the worst 5% getting most attention...blah blah), India has lobbied better and has been accepted with relative ease as compared to pak. Also let’s not forget Indian influences through religion, food, cinema, etc. From what I understand bollywood is quite famous in pak itself.

Equally, alliances are also important for superpower aspirations. Pak begs US on one hand and stabs it in the back with the other, and US returns the favor. So, that leaves pak with few choices – China, on certain issues maybe Saudi, and not many others would terms their ties with pak as close or intimate. India, on the other hand, finds favor with US, Japan, Australia – arc of democracy as it is called. At the same time, on the other side of the Spectrum, a country like Russia, too, is seen cosying up to India. Never-mind the fact, that few would question india’s status as a regional power in south asia. Add to that Manmohan Singh’s “look east” policy and India is the definite winner in terms of lobbying and gaining alliances.

As for human developments, both the countries’ performance has been abysmal. Probably the key reason that will keep both from realizing their aspirations.

So, as per indicators mentioned above, India scores over pak on most. Therefore, in my dreamworld, India is more likely to win the race.

What do your fantasies tell you?

Anonymous said...

i think economic, military and political powers are 3 powers that make a nation a super power. In todays world only US can claim that. china today is an economic power and slowly becoming a political power as well. Its military has a long way to go to become a military power. Russia is a military power but it doesnt help as its political power has decreased so as its economic power. Countries allying with the US have gained because of its superpower influence around the world. India is still not ready to embrace US openly because of cold war rivalry. India is neither an economic or military or political power. India has huge socio economic problems and unless India addresses the issues its problems are going to increase inspite of growing economic power. Pakistan is on a collision course with US and there is a possibility that US will use everything in its power to create anarchy and chaos in Pakistan unless it gets what it wants from Pakistan i.e. Elimination of terrorists attacking nato forces in Afghanistan. If republicans win the elections Pakiistan will see tough days ahead.
There is no question of India or Pakistan being a superpower in the next 30 yrs.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "What do your fantasies tell you?"

Harvard economist and former US Ambassador to India John Kenneth Galbraith called India a "functional anarchy" some 30 years ago.

Now Ramachandra Guha, renowned historian and author of India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy, says instability is India's destiny, according to Soutik Biswas of BBC.

In addition to all the advantages you claim India has over Pakistan, India also has huge baggage and problems of hunger, poverty, insurgencies, corruption, social backwardness, instability, etc.

Never say never, but I agree that neither India nor Pakistan have a chance of achieving superpower status any time soon.

However, I do expect both India and Pakistan to eventually become significant world powers which can exert considerable influence in international affairs.

raoul said...

India already has a lot of power in the world arena as was seen in 2010 when all the P5 countries came to india and agreed that india should join their club( except china, which obviously never will as they do not want their neighbor to show their true potential) whereas, leaders only come to pakistan to accuse them of terrorism. Mr. haq, donot be under the perception that pakistan will have power, the only reason you guys capture the headlines is for the nuisance you create.I was in dubai recently and was having a chat with an arab over their,when i told him that i was from India, he got very excited and started telling me how he studied in India and how India has grown to reach superpower status. when i told him about pakistan causing a hindrance in our growth story, he said that pakistan is the only muslim nation to cause so many problems to the world, which i totally agree with. I mean if pakistan didn't have terrorist, people would not have cared what pakistan is!

You talk about how only westerners consider india to be a potential superpower, well you must be thoroughly ignorant then, because you do not read articles from other parts of the world. whether it is africa, the middle east, south east asia, even south asia other than pakistan, all of them preach that india is a superpower along with china!

Riaz Haq said...

raoul: "India already has a lot of power in the world arena as was seen in 2010 when all the P5 countries came to india and agreed that india should join their club.."

Yes, I remember Hillary Clinton calling India a "self-appointed" front-runner for UNSC seat.


raoul: "I was in dubai recently and was having a chat with an arab over their,when i told him that i was from India, he got very excited and started telling me how he studied in India and how India has grown to reach superpower status."

Really? Polls say otherwise.
There was a Pew poll last year in which Arabs saw Pakistan as a potential superpower.


Ashmit (India) said...

I don’t think you get the drift of what I have been saying.

I don’t think India will be a superpower. It is more likely to be one of the various poles of a multi-polar world. Given the nature of issues that Pakistan face, and the limited potential (in relation to india…smaller economy, smaller army, smaller navy, smaller cultural impact, smaller land mass, access to fewer resources, smaller industries, etc) – Pakistan is more likely to be a tier 2 power, at best.

Moving on, you place disproportionate importance on the levels of human development (in context of nations competing of power). Consequently, implicitly dismissing the impact of other variables.

When nations face-off, it’s not the average citizen that competes but rather the collective entity. And representative of the strengths / weaknesses of the collective entity are parameters such as economy, armed forces and global clout. For better or for worse, neither of these three are a function of the human development.

India itself should be a case in point, the economy is skewed in favour of elite, ignoring large chunks, yet the power that it has come to wield on the international stage, is phenomenal. Similarly, the poverty tag has not kept india from developing a strong arsenal and nurturing alliances.

India has already registered a significant lead over pak, in all of the 3 parameters. And it is light of this massive gulf between the two nations, that I conclude India is more capable and more likely to first, establish itself on the international stage and second, to wield greater power.

PS – “Yes, I remember Hillary Clinton calling India a "self-appointed" front-runner for UNSC seat.”

You are mocking at yourself by quoting these examples. Barrack Obama, who occupies a higher office, has explicitly stated that he backs India for permanent membership. And he made this clear in various public forums, unlike Clinton who spoke in hushed tones behind curtains, only to be revealed through wikileaks. Besides India enjoys support from other major powers such as France, Russia, UK.

Other than the major powers, 53 nation African Union has also backed india’s bid. Also 52 other nations ranging from Malaysia in SE Asia, to Bangladesh in south asia, to Kazakhstan in central asia, to UAE in middle east, to the likes of Croatia Greece Portugal Norway in Europe, to Bahamas in the Caribbean and to Cuba in South America have supported India’s bid.

Perhaps a reflection of greater global clout and acceptability – that Pakistan lacks. Also an example of how internal strife in India, as you have so painstakingly articulated, is doing little to limit India’s global reach.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "Pakistan is more likely to be a tier 2 power, at best"

Talking about tiers of power, with all of its massive baggage of hundreds of millions of poor, hungry and illiterate and discontented people, I see little chance of India achieving "tier 1" status.

If the past is any guide, it's quite safe to assume that Pakistan will continue to effectively respond to all military threats to its security and assert its power ...be it nukes, missiles, satellites, fighter jets, drones, nuke subs, etc. Now you talk about India's nuke sub, it's just a matter of time before Pakistan launches its own nuclear subs to complete the nuclear triad. Let there be no doubt on this point.


As to eating grass to build nukes, all of the available data from international sources shows that many Indians can't even find grass to eat, as hundreds of millions of Indians go to bed hungry every night.

Here's a quote from Times of India poking fun at the superpower claim:

With 21% of its population undernourished, nearly 44% of under-5 children underweight and 7% of them dying before they reach five years, India is firmly established among the world's most hunger-ridden countries. The situation is better than only Congo, Chad, Ethiopia or Burundi, but it is worse than Sudan, North Korea, Pakistan or Nepal.

Today India has 213 million hungry and malnourished people by GHI estimates although the UN agency Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) puts the figure at around 230 million. The difference is because FAO uses only the standard calorie intake formula for measuring sufficiency of food while the Hunger Index is based on broader criteria.


Riaz Haq said...

Here's a DefenseNews report on Pakistan's rumored nuclear submarine project:

...Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer at Islamabad’s Quaid-e-Azam University who specializes
in nonconventional weapons and missiles, believes the reports are the result of a
calculated leak by the Navy, and that a message may be being sent to India.

“This news … appears to be some kind of signaling to the Indians seeing as they are taking delivery of a new nuclear-powered
submarine from the Russians as well as their own Arihant Class SSBN,” he said.

“So Pakistan is signaling to the Indians that they are mindful of these developments and taking due measures in response.”

Ahmed said he has for some time believed Pakistan was working on a nuclear propulsion system for submarine applications and that Pakistan already has a functional submarine launched variant of
the Babur cruise missile.

The Babur cruise missile is very similar to the U.S. BGM-109 Tomahawk, and perhaps derives at least some technology from Tomahawks which crashed in Pakistan
during U.S. strikes on al-Qaida training camps in Afghanistan in 1998. It can be armed with conventional or nuclear

Ahmed believes Pakistan is now gearing up to build its own SSN/SSGN flotilla as a way
of deterring India and maintaining the strategic balance in South Asia.

However, in the long term in order to fully ensure the credibility of its deterrent Ahmed said he believes Pakistan should
build ballistic missile submarines.


Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "You are mocking at yourself by quoting these examples. Barrack Obama, who occupies a higher office, has explicitly stated that he backs India for permanent membership."

Yes, but US publicly agreed only to a UNSC permanent seat for India without veto power.

Privately, US leaders mock India as "self-appointed" front-runner for it.


Ashmit (India) said...

You never fail to amuse me. You remind me of the famous cartoon series “The Road Runner Show”. I see you like the coyote, running gleefully towards the light at the end of the tunnel, only to realize that it’s a several ton heavy locomotive racing towards you.

“If the past is any guide, it's quite safe to assume that Pakistan will continue to effectively respond to all military threats to its security and assert its power.”

Respond to military threats like in the past?! The same way pak responded to ongoing drone strikes by foreign forces over sovereign pak soil? The same way pak responded to unilateral strikes by US into pak soil to kill OSAMA? The same way pak responded to 24 soldiers being killed by US? Was the hurt pak pride salvaged by actions as timid as not allowing a few trucks to run?

And FYI – US ambassador to pak has revealed that NATO supplies continue to be routed through pak airspace. Meanwhile, the pak Defense Minister is busy advocating that the land routes to be opened for NATO forces.

The past only indicates that pak, however hopelessly, will continue to TRY to respond to military threats. The efficacy of such efforts leaves much to be desired, I presume, given that half of your country was sliced away (East Pakistan).

But you really think that it’s wise for pak to compete with India militarily? Doctrines adopted by the pak forces suggest that pak has already conceded the superiority in conventional warfare to India. Firstly, the use of proxy warfare (terror cells) by pak. It is a well established military strategy that yields results, and importantly, in the case of pak, allows it deniability. Hence, reducing the likelihood of military engagement with India. Secondly, with respect to nukes, isn’t it obvious why pak hasn’t adopted a no first use policy?

Besides, arms build up is an expensive affair. How exactly do you think pak plans to pit its meager defense budget of USD 6 billion, against India’s defense spending of USD 37 billion for FY12? India spends a lower percentage of its GDP, yet it’s more than 6 times what pak can afford. And as the pace of growth differs, the difference is only likely to get larger. Are you getting a better picture of the train’s headlights?


Ashmit (India) said...


“Now you talk about India's nuke sub, it's just a matter of time before Pakistan launches its own nuclear subs to complete the nuclear triad. Let there be no doubt on this point.”

It’s only a matter of time? So says the man with close ties with pak’s defense establishment, who despite the links relies on googling of newspaper stories to validate rhetorical claims? The information that you provide, is just shy of being called wishful thinking and at best is speculation – but importantly, no hard facts.

As for pre-empting by arguments – India’s latest acquisition the nuclear sub didn’t cross my mind till you pointed it out. But, it’s an interesting subject as well.

Well firstly, other than India only 5 countries can boast of such hardware. Pak’s not one of them. As for pak’s ability to secure one, you would have the readers believe that the rumor about pak’s n-sub is the product of a selective leak to caution India. But talk of india securing a nuclear submarine was made public years ago. Yet after so many years, all that pak could manage was this little rumour? which jingoists are promoting as a “selective leak” How about a photo-op?? A news brief on the sub?? A paper by a govt sponsored think tank??? Anything?!?!?

Pak navy’s strategy to deter india is through a leak?! If pak had the wares why would it not put it on display?? A desperate hope that India doesn’t call pak’s bluff is the basis of this “selective leak”?! Is this rumour / leak / speculation a representation of pak “effectively responding to all military threats”?? Please, for sake of your own nation, tell me that as India brings in a nuclear powered sub into the sub-continent pak has more than rumors to bank on to tackle this challenge.

Please pardon my skepticism. Given the facts you have presented, I’m inclined to believe that pak is still light years from a nuke sub.

And finally, according to you India has the heavier baggage of poverty to carry, as compared to pak. But despite the heavier baggage, it has outperformed its lowly neighbors in terms of economy, military and clout. India has already emerged as the sole regional power in a subcontinent that includes pak. What does that say about pak’s destiny with tier 2?

Those headlights are awfully close. Don’t you think?

Ashmit (India) said...

"Yes, but US publicly agreed only to a UNSC permanent seat for India without veto power.

Privately, US leaders mock India as "self-appointed" front-runner for it."

Let's not be childish here. Are you always this delusional and are you deliberately swaying from the point, today?

The issue is not what privileges india will enjoy, or will have to forego. The point is that despite the baggage that you point towards, major world powers and dozens of smaller nations are rallying behind India’s contention for permanent membership.

Support that is indicative of future power status. It also reflects poorly on pak, that finds few takers today.

As for private vs public issue. How does Clinton’s personal opinion matter, if the administration and the office that she is a part of are committed towards a particular agenda? You don’t have to love curry to support India.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "Support that is indicative of future power status. It also reflects poorly on pak, that finds few takers today."

Few takers? Pakistan has been elected UNSC member several times, and is also a member today. A non-veto permanent membership of UNSC is not particularly different or nore significant in substance.

Ashmit: "The information that you provide, is just shy of being called wishful thinking and at best is speculation – but importantly, no hard facts."

Yeah, sure. It's wishful thinking, the kind of wishful thinking that has already produced indigenous nuclear bombs, ballistic and cruise missiles, tactical nukes, conventional subs, frigates, indigenous plutonium reactors at Khushab, main battle tanks, modern fighter jets, etc. etc. in Pakistan's arsenal.

Ashmit: "Respond to military threats like in the past?! The same way pak responded to ongoing drone strikes by foreign forces over sovereign pak soil? The same way pak responded to unilateral strikes by US into pak soil to kill OSAMA?"

There's a world of difference between superpoor India and sole global superpower United States. India is a pygmy while US is 10-ft tall. Besides US-Pak is a complicated frenemy relationship in which both compete for influence in the region.

Ashmit: " India has already emerged as the sole regional power in a subcontinent that includes pak. What does that say about pak’s destiny with tier 2?"

India has only appointed itself as "sole regional power"....just as it's a "self-appointed" front runner for UNSC permanent membership. Neither Pakistan, nor Sri Lanka accept it as such.

Here's an excerpt from an Indian paper on the subject:

"According to Brahma Chellany, a prominent Indian analyst, “India has ceded strategic space in its
regional backyard in such a manner that Bhutan now remains
its sole pocket of influence."
"Of greater worry to India have been the deepening military and political ties between Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The relationship appears to be growing closer. Pakistan has long been an outspoken supporter of the Sri Lankan state’s campaign against the LTTE, as well as one of the
island’s largest suppliers of military hardware in recent
years.127 In November 2010 President Rajapaksa praised
Pakistan for helping the government defeat the LTTE. Pakistan had also stationed roughly a dozen military personnel in Sri Lanka over the past decade, who “extended technical assistance and training for the SLAF [Sri Lankan Air Force] during its air campaign” against the LTTE. There are allegations that Pakistani pilots flew bombing..."

Riaz Haq said...

A newly-wed woman in a village in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh recently left her husband's home because the house had no toilet, reports BBC:

Anita Narre returned eight days later after her husband, a daily wage worker, built one with savings and aid from villagers.

An NGO announced a $10,000 reward for Mrs Narre for her "brave" decision and forcing her husband to build a toilet.

More than half a billion Indians still lack access to basic sanitation.

The problem is acute in rural India and it is the women who suffer most.

Mrs Narre's husband, Shivram, said he was not able to build a toilet at home because of lack of money.

He admitted that his wife returned home only after he constructed one with his savings and "some support from the village council".

"It is not nice for women to go outside to defecate. That's why every home should have a toilet. Those who don't should make sure there is one," Mrs Narre told the BBC.

Many people in India do not have access to flush toilets or other latrines.

But under new local laws in states like Chhattisgarh, representatives are obliged to construct a flush toilet in their own home within a year of being elected. Those who fail to do so face dismissal.

The law making toilets mandatory has been introduced in several Indian states as part of the "sanitation for all" drive by the Indian government.

The programme aims to eradicate the practice of open defecation, which is common in rural and poor areas of India.

Special funds are made available for people to construct toilets to promote hygiene and eradicate the practice of faeces collection - or scavenging - which is mainly carried out by low-caste people.


Asoka said...

I am tired of hearing that India is a poor country. We are a poverty free nation. We have the largest number of millionaires and billionaires in the world. The world's richest person is an Indian.

I am tired of hearing that India is behind China and that she will one day catch up to China. Let me tell you the Truth India is already a global superpower. Forget about G2, G8, G20, India is class by itself.

India is G1, the lone hyper-superpower in the world.

We are not behind China in the race. We have already won the race to become the world’s next superpower. We are already enjoying our Superpowerdom, superpowerhood, and supoerpower status, thank you very much Bloomberg editors.India has the fastest growing economy in the world with over 10% annual growth rate, the world’s largest middle class consumers with over 1 billion people, the world’s largest and greatest democracy, and a huge foreign reserve that is second to none.

It makes no sense to talk about India’s future. India is the Future. We will rule the world. India is shining.

Let me tell you a few more facts about our Great Country India:

1>India Largest Democracy in the world-: Population: 1.2 Bn. India’s population will surpass china’s by 2030. India has the largest middle class in the world –> Population superpower.

2>India the most industrialized country. India produced the cheapest car, the Tata Nano. India’s IT industry is second to none. Industrial superpower.

3> India never lost a war in its 8000 years history. War superpower.

4> India never invaded other country in history. Peace Superpower.

5>Largest english speaking nation by 2010. The world’s biggest back office. world’s largest skilled workforce. World’s largest working age population. People superpower.

6> over 800 movies made anuualy–bollywood overshadows hollywood, Movies superpower.

7> 6 Miss Universe / Miss world titles in last 10 years: Beauty superpower

8>Per capita income US $9550 ; 2% live in poverty, literacy levels at 88%. India has the world’s largest number of millionaires and billionaires: economic superpower!

9>The Indian Diaspora
38% of Doctors in AMerica are Indians
36% of NASA employees are Indians
34% of Microsoft employees are Indians
28% of IBM employeesare Indians
17% of Intel employees are Indians
13% of Zerox employees are Indians

intellectual superpower!

Asoka said...

10>India will eventually become world’s largest economy in 2083–Goldman Sachs

11>India is fastest growing GDP’s in the world, averaging over 10% growth since 1990.

12>India’s GDP will exceed that of Italy in 2020, France in 2020, Germany in 2025 and Japan in 2035 — USA in 2050, China in 2082 –Goldman Sachs

13>India’s Foreign exchange reserves history
1990-91 $40 billion
1995-96 $200 billion
2001-02 $600 billion
2002-03 $760 billion
2003-04 $1000 billion
2004-05 close to $1500 billion
2006-10 over $ 3000 billion

14>Indian Economy
Robust hyper growth of manufacturing, agriculture and services
Low external debt, low deficit, high trade surplus

299 Fortune 500 companies outsource IT work to India
Increased disposable income, increased wealth
Large emerging affluent middle class

15>Indian Aviation
Air deccan–1 st low cose domestic carrier
Most international carriers now target India for network growth and profitability
$5 bn capital infusion in govt owned carriers
Airport privatization

16>India will be the second fastest growing travel and tourism market over 2005-2014 at 8.8%– WTTC

17> Size of indian tourism is 330 million as of 2004

18>Indians going abroad as of 2004
Singapore — 375,658
Saudi Arabia — 373,636
UAE — 336,046
Kuwait — 293,621
Thailand — 280,641
Bahrain — 268,383
USA — 257,271
China — 213,611
U.K — 205,065
Hongkong — 193,705
NewZealand — 16,862

19> India growth projections
1999 — 2.7%
2000 — 3.4%
2001 — 3.6%
2002 — 4.2%
2003 — 4.5%
2004 — 5.9%
2005 — 6.9%
2006 — 8.0%
2007 — 9.4%
2008 — 11%
2009 — 12.8%
2010 — 15%
2011-2050 — 16.8%

20> Drivers of outbound growth
Increased charter operations
Upper middle income group will remain largest segment
potential consumer pie will grow to 300 billion
Age group of 15 to 49 likely comprise 62%
Self-employed who account for over 40% will emerge as
high potential target market
Holiday finance will become popular

21> Over 500 million Indian’s will travel overseas by 2020 — WTO

22> india discover water in moon, space superpower

23> 15 indian awarded Nobel prize.

24> Indian Prime Minister Nehru gifted the UN Security Council Seat to China, and now India is the leading candidate for the permanent member, winning endorsement from USA, Great Britain and Russia. Diplomacy Superpower

Riaz Haq said...

Here's Russian analyst Anatol Karlin on India's prospects and its comparison with China:

It is not a secret to longtime readers of this blog that I rate India’s prospects far more pessimistically than I do China’s. My main reason is I do not share the delusion that democracy is a panacea and that whatever advantage in this sphere India has is more than outweighed by China’s lead in any number of other areas ranging from infrastructure and fiscal sustainability to child malnutrition and corruption. However, one of the biggest and certainly most critical gaps is in educational attainment, which is the most important component of human capital – the key factor underlying all productivity increases and longterm economic growth. China’s literacy rate is 96%, whereas Indian literacy is still far from universal at just 74%.
The big problem, until recently, was that there was no internationalized student testing data for either China or India. (There was data for cities like Hong Kong and Shanghai, but it was not very useful because they are hardly representative of China). An alternative approach was to compare national IQ’s, in which China usually scored 100-105 and India scored in the low 80′s. But this method has methodological flaws because the IQ tests aren’t consistent across countries. (This, incidentally, also makes this approach a punching bag for PC enforcers who can’t bear to entertain the possibility of differing IQ’s across national and ethnic groups).
Many Indians like to see themselves as equal competitors to China, and are encouraged in their endeavour by gushing Western editorials and Tom Friedman drones who praise their few islands of programming prowess – in reality, much of which is actually pretty low-level stuff – and widespread knowledge of the English language (which makes India a good destination for call centers but not much else), while ignoring the various aspects of Indian life – the caste system, malnutrition, stupendously bad schools – that are holding them back. The low quality of Indians human capital reveals the “demographic dividend” that India is supposed to enjoy in the coming decades as the wild fantasies of what Sailer rightly calls ”Davos Man craziness at its craziest.” A large cohort of young people is worse than useless when most of them are functionally illiterate and innumerate; instead of fostering well-compensated jobs that drive productivity forwards, they will form reservoirs of poverty and potential instability.

Instead of buying into their own rhetoric of a “India shining”, Indians would be better served by focusing on the nitty gritty of bringing childhood malnutrition DOWN to Sub-Saharan African levels, achieving the life expectancy of late Maoist China, and moving up at least to the level of a Mexico or Moldova in numeracy and science skills. Because as long as India’s human capital remains at the bottom of the global league tables so will the prosperity of its citizens....


Riaz Haq said...

LSE study finds India can not become a superpower, reports The Hindu:

Despite India’s "impressive" rise, its ambition to be a super power may remain just that—an ambition, according to an authoritative new study by the London School of Economics to which several Indian scholars have contributed.

It pointedly dismisses what it calls the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s "unequivocal verdict" during her India visit in 2009 that "India is not just a regional power, but a global power’.

The study, India: the Next Superpower? acknowledges India’s "formidable achievements" in fostering democracy, growth and cultural dynamism but concludes that these are nullified by its structural weaknesses, widespread corruption, poor leadership, extreme social divisions, religious extremism and internal security threats.

India, it argues, still faces too many "developmental challenges" to qualify for "super power" status, or to be considered a serious "counterweight" to China, a role sought to be thrust on it by some in the West. Some of the report’s authors wonder whether India should even aspire to be a super power given its institutional weaknesses and social and economic divisions.

Historian Ramachandra Guha, currently the Philippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at LSE, suggests that rather than being seduced by the bright lights of great power diplomacy, India should instead focus on reforming its institutions and repairing the social fabric that seems to be coming off its seams.

“We need to repair, one by one, the institutions that have safeguarded our unity amidst diversity, and to forge the new institutions that can help us. It will be hard, patient, slow work,” he writes.

The study, a summary of which was released on Wednesday, starts off by acknowledging that" India’s rise has certainly been impressive, and warrants the attention that it has commanded".

"India has been one of the world’s best-performing economies for a quarter of a century, lifting millions out of poverty and becoming the world’s third-largest economy in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) terms. India has tripled its defence expenditure over the last decade to become one of the top-ten military spenders. And in stark contrast to Asia’s other billion-person emerging power, India has simultaneously cultivated an attractive global image of social and cultural dynamism," it says. But then come the "ifs" and "buts".

Plunging the knife into Indian ambitions, the report says:"Still, for all India’s success, its undoubted importance and despite its undisputed potential, there is cause for caution in assessing India’s claim to superpower status. India still faces major developmental challenges. The still-entrenched divisions of caste structure are being compounded by the emergence of new inequalities of wealth stemming from India’s economic success. India’s democracy may have thrived in a manner that few ever expected, but its institutions face profound challenges from embedded nepotism and corruption. India’s economic success continues to come with an environmental cost that is unsustainable."

These problems are compounded by India’s "pressing security preoccupations" arising out of "insurgent violence" affecting large parts of the country and long-festering cross-border disputes.

The best that India can hope for—the study offers as a consolation-- is "to continue to play a constructive international role in, among other things, the financial diplomacy of the G20".

"Yet the hopes of those in the West who would build up India as a democratic counterweight to Chinese superpower are unlikely to be realised anytime soon," it concludes....


Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Washington Post blog on India's claim of poverty reduction:

India’s Planning Commission says the number of poor people has dropped by 51 million — more than the entire population of Spain or Argentina — in the past five years. This, officials say, is the sharpest drop in poverty rate in India — from 406 million to 356 million, out of 1.2 billion Indians — since the country introduced an ambitious economic reforms program in 1991 that brought unprecedented economic growth and wealth. Poverty in rural India declined at an even faster pace, the report said.

But many Indians are not ready to believe this rare good news. Some accuse the government of statistical jugglery — first, lowering the definition of the poverty line, so as to include fewer people, and then claiming that the number of Indians living in poverty has declined.

According to the commission, Indians are defined as poor if they spend the equivalent of 56 cents or less daily in urban areas and 44 cents or less in villages. This is lower than the earlier level of 65 to 75 cents a day or less in cities, and 50 to 55 cents daily or less in villages, which was set by the commission.

“Is this the poverty line or the starvation line?” S. S. Ahluwalia, a lawmaker with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, asked in parliament on Tuesday, accusing the government of playing with lives of the poor.

“India’s poverty line is the most austerely defined line in the whole world,” said M. S. Swaminathan, an agricultural economist. “It is lower than other emerging economies.”

The government’s data triggered fear among many activists that fewer people will benefit from the government’s proposed free food program for the poor.

But Planning Commission chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, an ardent advocate of free market policies, dismissed such fears on Tuesday.

“The focus of this exercise is to determine whether inclusive growth is working,”said Ahluwalia. “It is not to determine who will get food entitlements.”

One official at the commission said welfare programs like the rural public works guarantee scheme launched by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government has reduced destitute poverty in the past five years,

But in India’s poorer, populous northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the poverty decline has only been marginal, and the absolute number of poor has risen.


Riaz Haq said...

Is India another illusion? asks Pierro Scaruffi of IEET:

Last year I predicted that the Chinese bubble will burst soon, and that it’s unlikely that China will become the biggest economy in the world any time soon, contrary to what most analysts predict (See The great illusion?). Now it looks like India might also disappoint, although for completely different reasons.

The closer we look, the more Indian ills look like a scary combination of European ills and American ills. Start with the budget deficit: India’s economy needs to grow frantically just to pay its debt, which is about 8.5% of GDP. Defense spending increased 10% last year and this year should grow even faster. At the same time, growth is projected to slow down to 6-7%. That sounds a lot like the problem the USA is facing with colossal defense spending that is not justified by the facts on the ground (who’s planning to invade the USA? who’s planning to invade India?)

On top of defense spending, the Indian government also spends billions to provide subsidies to the oil industry and to farmers. Just like the USA. Finally, the Indian parliament resembles the fractured and paralyzed parliaments of Italy and Belgium, in which the governing party is tamed by the tiny allies that it needs in order to claim a majority. Just like Europe, the balance sheet and ridiculous bureaucracy are scaring away foreign investors.

India is famous for a dumb and gargantuan bureaucracy, which was never truly reformed when it moved from pseudo-communism to free-market capitalism, and that bureaucracy recently has been at work to make it difficult for anybody to do business in India. (And even for tourists to visit it: India is the only country in the world that forbids tourists from reentering India for two months).

The social and political problems of India have long been ignored by the world as remote and passing nuisances.

The truth is that many more people are killed by terrorists of various factions in India than in the other emerging powers.

The truth is that India still has a caste-based system that has created incredible social injustice.

The truth is that India, unlike China, Brazil and Russia and virtually any other emerging country, is a federation of linguistically and ethnically different states, a fact that could potentially derail the union.

The truth is that it is the largest Muslim country in the world (or second largest after neighboring Pakistan), a fact that constitutes a perennial threat to its identity.

The truth is that, unlike China, Russia and Brazil, who are unlikely to go to war with any of their neighbors, India is in a constant state of alert along the border with Pakistan, a nuclear enemy.

The truth is that corruption in India is more widespread than even in Russia (see for example for example).

The truth is that this year 27 million babies will be born in India (versus 10 million in China and 4 million in the USA): India needs to create an improbable number of jobs to improve the conditions of its population, or even to keep it where it is and avoid social unrest.
The closer one looks, the less reassuring India looks as a place to invest money.

This would matter little if growth were still exponential and business opportunities were popping up everywhere. However, just like China, India is vulnerable to oil prices and to prices of commodities in general. Those prices are unlikely to come down any time soon, now that the US economy is picking up steam.

Last but not least, India may have run out of Western customers willing to offsource jobs to cheaper English-speaking countries (i.e., to India) and may have to rely on its own domestic market. That market is, in theory, huge. Alas, the World Bank estimates that 300 million of them live under the poverty line, and the others have an average salary which is below $1,000 a month


Riaz Haq said...

Here are some excepts of a BBC Op Ed on Indian economy titled "Five things wrong with India's economy":

After several official predictions that India would grow by 7-8% in 2011-12, the finance minister finally admitted in his Budget 2012 speech that the growth would be 6.9%.

The actual figure may be lower at 6.5%, thanks to the statistical error in sugar production, which dragged down January's industrial production growth figure from 6.8% to 1.1%.

Although ratings agency Standard and Poor's estimate for 2012-13 is 5% or above, Indian economists feel they won't be surprised if the economy grows by just 4%.

"If things remain the way they are, in terms of policy decisions, investments and sentiments, I would go to the extent that the figure may be 3%," says a senior economist with a leading business association.
Wholesale price inflation, which is under 7%, could increase to 9-10% over the next few months.

Food inflation is still high at double-digit levels, and any hike in fuel (petrol and diesel) prices in the near future will spur inflation.

A combination of low growth and high inflation, or near-stagflation, would be India's worst economic nightmare come true.
In 2011-12, the fiscal deficit zoomed from a projected 4.6% of GDP to 5.9%. Although Budget 2012 predicted it would come down to 5.1% in 2012-13, most economists remain sceptical.

Low growth rates, lower-than-estimated government revenues, and higher-than-expected expenditures, especially on welfare schemes for rural employment and the right to food, may force the deficit to go up in 2012-13, as happened in the previous financial year.

Although exports grew by 20% in 2011-12, imports rose at a faster pace, and the trade deficit went up to $185 billion, the highest ever in the country's history.

Since August 2011, foreign exchange reserves have dipped from $322bn to $293bn due to the higher trade deficit and other foreign exchange outflows.
Coalition compulsions, a united opposition and corruption allegations have forced the government to backtrack on key economic reforms, including foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand organised retail.
In 2011-12, the domestic private sector was wary of huge investment commitments; many firms delayed or postponed plans to invest in expansion or building new factories.

An April 2012 overview of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated that "consultations with industry and banks suggest that new project investment continue to be sluggish"


Riaz Haq said...

Here's an excerpt of an article from India's Open Magazine on India's delusions:

There is a thin line between the audacity of hope and grasp of reality. India’s middle-class, with its fond dream of India as a Superpower, is like a trapeze artist walking that very thin line. Despair too much, and your case is hopeless. Daydream too much, and you topple into a delusionary void.

Over the past decade or so, it’s the latter which has been the bigger danger. India the Infotech Iron-pumper. India the Nuclear Non-aggressor. India the Space Scorcher. India the Cricket Conqueror. India the Massive Market. India the Enormous Economy. India the Growth Giant… you get the drift. With a flying cape and coloured briefs, it’s an India ready to make the world spin the other way round on its axis. At the top level, the dream was articulated by an optimist-in-residence at the Rashtrapati Bhavan itself, former President APJ Abdul Kalam. With his technocratic training straight from the rah-rah realm of rocket science, he went forth and set a deadline: 2020. And then got little children all across the land waving little tricolours to pledge their support.

The Millennium Goal to beat all millennium goals! The future that was promised! The glory that was destined! Each success has brought another bout of delirium, India’s lunar mission being a fine example. There’s ice on the moon, Jai Hind!
So why does this fancy persist? Says Shiv Vishwanathan, a sociologist, “There is a fantastic urge within the middle-class for upward mobility. For status. This is fuelled equally by the expatriate Indian cousins when they visit or hold ‘India’ days. It is a dangerous fantasy because it is taken as manifest destiny. Bear in mind that a lot can still go wrong in the India story. If the middle-class insulates itself in the superpower ivory tower, it will invite reactions.”

There are sniggers in the dark, scowls in the aisles. Read The White Tiger. Or watch Slumdog Millionaire. Though aimed at Western audiences, they are reminders of the mockery that comes the way of India’s middle-class consensus on Superpowerhood. And indeed, there is much that should make the country squirm. There is nothing ‘super’ in having to declare a quarter of the country’s districts tormented by Naxal violence. There are people out in the jungles who are taking up guns to overthrow the State, an entity they see as increasingly hostage to the mollycoddled middle-class and its fancies.


So, can no good come of hallucination? It could depend on how the energies are channelled. In Meiji Japan, or Imperial Britain, the State took national ambition to new heights. “Some good does come out of the fantasy,” says Gurcharan Das, “It gives a sense of self-belief. But it is critical to direct this positive energy, for otherwise it can lead to a dangerous disconnect of the elite from the concerns of a transforming country.” India must wake up.


M Singh said...

Mr. Haq,

Even if we assume India is a "functional anarchy". it is indeed far better than the well known international migraine, "functioning terrorist state of Pakistan".

It is further not surprising, how it has come about, and why!

Data doctoring in Pakistan has been perfected to the level of brazen art form, seen nowhere else in the world.

On the other hand, in spite of advances in various fields, a teeming army of leftist NGO and foot soldiers of ideology along-with corrupt officers and contractors, blatantly doctor data negatively in India to support multiple vested interests.

But nevertheless, it is expected of you to go on repeating your anti India campaign based on deep seated resentments and envy.

Unfortunately, you can increase and extend any thing but not the geographical ares and natural resources.

It would be far better, if you focus and utilize energies and skills to make Pakistan a less dangerous place for the world and yourself as well.

Hopewins said...

^^^"If the past is any guide, it's quite safe to assume that Pakistan will continue to effectively respond to all military threats to its security and assert its power ...be it nukes, missiles, satellites, fighter jets, drones, nuke subs, etc. Now you talk about India's nuke sub, it's just a matter of time before Pakistan launches its own nuclear subs to complete the nuclear triad. Let there be no doubt on this point."


The doubt is PRECISELY on this point.

How will our "diverse and vast Industrial base" respond to all these Global Threats when our DOMESTIC SAVINGS are so abysmally low?

From where, exactly, will all this capacity come? Who will finance it and how? We have alienated almost every nation in the world, except for our BFF China. And now China is headed for its own "lost decade". Even Saudi Arabia holds a grand reception for Manmohan Singh, even as it refuses to so much as meet with Zardari. It would appear that we have NO friends left. None. Zero.

Please commment.

peterparker said...

Yes, india has population of poor people. But who are those people? They are muslims and christians, especially muslims. And it is correct, as india is land of hindus. People like shashi tharoor and ramchandra guha belong to secular creed, and hence, for them, muslims are also part of india. But we know that muslims came from uzbek, mongol ,turkey and are foreigners for us.

Riaz Haq said...

Mary Kay Magistad of NPR's The World reported that China has reacted strongly to the Pentagon report on China's military growth and modernization with its first aircraft carrier, several nuclear submarines and stealth aircraft.

Magistead reported that Xinhua has for the first time talked about China as a global economic power with global interests and it needs a blue water navy to protect a tremendous number of sea-lanes.


Riaz Haq said...

Here's NY Times on India's growing troubles:

...a summer of difficulties has dented India’s confidence, and a growing chorus of critics is starting to ask whether India’s rise may take years, and perhaps decades, longer than many had hoped.

“There is a growing sense of desperation out there, particularly among the young,” said Ramachandra Guha, one of India’s leading historians.

Three events last week crystallized those new worries. On Wednesday, one of India’s most advanced submarines, the Sindhurakshak, exploded and sank at its berth in Mumbai, almost certainly killing 18 of the 21 sailors on its night watch.

On Friday, a top Indian general announced that India had killed 28 people in recent weeks in and around the Line of Control in Kashmir as part of the worst fighting between India and Pakistan since a 2003 cease-fire.

Also Friday, the Sensex, the Indian stock index, plunged nearly 4 percent, while the value of the rupee continued to fall, reaching just under 62 rupees per dollar, a record low.

Each event was unrelated to the others, but together they paint a picture of a country that is rapidly losing its swagger. India’s growing economic worries are perhaps its most challenging.

“India is now the sick man of Asia,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at the financial information provider IHS Global Insight. “They are in a crisis.”


The Indian government recently loosened restrictions on direct foreign investment, expecting a number of major retailers like Walmart and other companies to come rushing in. The companies have instead stayed away, worried not only by the government’s constant policy changes but also by the widespread and endemic corruption in Indian society.

The government has followed with a series of increasingly desperate policy announcements in recent weeks in hopes of turning things around, including an increase in import duties on gold and silver and attempts to defend the currency without raising interest rates too high.

Then Wednesday night, the government announced measures to restrict the amounts that individuals and local companies could invest overseas without seeking approval. It was an astonishing move in a country where a growing number of companies have global operations and ambitions.
The submarine explosion revealed once again the vast strategic challenges that the Indian military faces and how far behind China it has fallen. India still relies on Russia for more than 60 percent of its defense equipment needs, and its army, air force and navy have vital Russian equipment that is often decades old and of increasingly poor quality.

The Sindhurakshak is one of 10 Russian-made Kilo-class submarines that India has as part of its front-line maritime defenses, but only six of India’s submarines are operational at any given time — far fewer than are needed to protect the nation’s vast coastline.

Indeed, India has fewer than 100 ships, compared with China’s 260. India is the world’s largest weapons importer, but with its economy under stress and foreign currency reserves increasingly precious, that level of purchases will be increasingly hard to sustain.

The country’s efforts to build its own weapons have largely been disastrous, and a growing number of corruption scandals have tainted its foreign purchases, including a recent deal to buy helicopters from Italy.

Unable to build or buy, India is becoming dangerously short of vital defense equipment, analysts say.

Meanwhile, the country’s bitter rivalry with Pakistan continues. Many analysts say that India is unlikely to achieve prominence on the world stage until it reaches some sort of resolution with Pakistan of disputes that have lasted for decades over Kashmir and other issues.


Riaz Haq said...

Here's The Economist Magazine on India's Mars Mission:

ON NOVEMBER 5th or at some point in the following weeks India’s space organisation, ISRO, will launch a rocket carrying a small, unmanned spacecraft, the Mangalyaan (“Mars vehicle”). By the end of the month, the orbiter is set to stretch its solar wings and begin a nine-month trip to Mars. Officially, it will look for signs of methane on Earth’s neighbour. In fact the main concern is rivalry closer to home: to show that India’s space plans are not entirely outclassed by China’s. A successful mission would swell national pride. But as the Mangalyaan begins its journey, many might wonder how a country that cannot feed all of its people can find the money for a Mars mission. How can poor countries afford space programmes?

India is not the only emerging economy with space ambitions. Nigeria already has a handful of satellites floating around the Earth (though these were launched by others). Depending how you define a space programme, even minnows like Sri Lanka, Bolivia and Belarus have plans of some sort to get space activity under way. By one count, including co-operative efforts between countries but not fully private ones, there are currently over 70 space programmes, though only a dozen of these have any sort of launch capability. China’s programme is advanced: last year it put a woman in space, and in December it will launch its first (uncrewed) lunar mission.

From a distance, India's extra-terrestrial ambitions might seem like a waste of money. The country still has immense numbers of poor people: two-fifths of its children remain stunted from malnutrition and half the population lack proper toilets. Its Mars mission may be cheap by American (or Chinese) standards, at just $74m, but India’s overall space programme costs roughly $1 billion a year. That is more than spare change, even for a near $2-trillion economy. Meanwhile, spending on public health, at about 1.2% of GDP, is dismally low. What if the 16,000 scientists and engineers now working on space development were deployed instead to fix rotten sanitation? And why should donors bother to help tackle poverty where governments have enough spare resources to think about space? For some countries, at least, decent answers exist to such questions. Trips to the Moon and Mars may well be mostly about showing off. But most space programmes are designed to get satellites into Earth’s orbit for the sake of better communications, mapping, weather observation or military capacity at home. These bring direct benefits to ordinary people. Take one recent example: a fierce cyclone that hit India’s east coast last month killed few, whereas a similar-strength one in the same spot, in 1999, killed over 10,000. One reason for the improvement was that Indian weather satellites helped to make possible far more accurate predictions of where and when the storm would hit. Otherwise, improved data on monsoon rains, or generally shifting weather patterns, can help even the poorest farmers have a better idea of when to plant crops.

Donors may not be mollified (Britain, for example, is winding down its aid to India). But any aid programme has to be justified in the face of other waste, which can be far costlier than space programmes. A bigger problem in India, for example, is that pitifully few people pay tax, partly because so few have formal jobs. As an emerging middle-income country, India should easily have the means to pay for proper public health, as well as the odd jaunt into space. The pity of it all: it does neither as well as it could.


Riaz Haq said...

By:Prem Sagar, Meerut
Date: Friday, 11 January 2013, 2:20 pm
Open your eyes about great India:

900 million people earn only 20 rupees per day in India. Out of which 500 million people earns only 10 rupees per day. Out of which 250 million makes only 5 rupees per day. Out of which 50 million people makes nothing. We have created the most heinous society in the history of human race. We 1 million Indians carry the toilet of other Indians every day. This is the greatest economical terrorism in the history of human race. We have 5 lakh villages without water. 34 families control 50% India – the greatest feudal system ever. Our mataas and mothers in the villages do their toilet on the road side. We are topping in AIDS, Blood Pressure, Stress Level and many other ills and deceases. We have the largest ghetto in Bombay. And yet, we have all the time to attack Muslims. We have killed and massacred over 10 million Hindu female babies in the last decade alone by forced abortions. Every day, hundreds of Hindu women are being raped by other Hindus. Every day! When Muslims lost power in India, the literacy rate was 96%. When British lost India, the literacy rate was reduced to 12% and they left 160 million Indian poor and destitute. Today, that poor and destitute climbed to 900 million. Today, Hindus have created the greatest feudal System in the history of mankind. 34 Hindu families control 50% India. Out of 1200 million people, only 35 million Indians are full time employees. The rest is hopping one place to another. Out of which 1.5 million are employed in military, few lakhs in Banking, Railway and government.

If anybody wanted to substantiate the above, please watch RAJIVE DIXIT SPEECH IN HYDERABAD 2010. Just cut and paste the capital letters on YouTube and enjoy the speech by this Pakka Hindu. Hindus are incapable to function as a society. When Muslims entered India, the country was divided into 200 mini kingdoms. They always use to fight with each other. They demolish each other Bhagwans and deities statutes. It was a regular practice. Muslims provided stability. Bollywood today is the hub and powerhouse of prostitution. The producers and directors regularly rape the upcoming start up heroines. The branded heroines regularly sell their bodies for lakhs per night to rich people inside and outside India. India is becoming a superpower is nothing but hoax and false.

Today, every city of India is filthy, dirty - they live like haiwaans and animals.


Riaz Haq said...

In the first 25 days of 2014 (in Delhi), 197 thumbnail images have gone up in the gallery of nameless dead.

Everyday, an average of seven people are dying unidentified and unclaimed in Delhi's winter. But what may be even more heart-rending is that such deaths are not limited to this season. As police data shows, they are an all-weather phenomenon. Around 2,900 died unidentified in Delhi last year. 241 perished in January; 225 in April; 279 in July; and, 238 in October.

The highest deaths, 323, took place in May. Data for last three years shows that unidentified deaths peaked in summer and monsoon. A majority of such deaths were of able-bodied men. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/The-everyday-tableau-of-Delhis-nameless-dead/articleshow/29430667.cms

MANJUL said...

Mr. Riaz sahab you always say that pakistan do every thing better than india, than you told me that no. of pakistani companies in fortune 500 list.i do not discus this time on the difference of inflation rate of both countries. and difference of purchasing power of both countries which shows the standard of life. but one thing i say that in an indian earn aprox. 1 $ per day per head and in an indian family average have 5 person than a poor family
of india earn aprox 10000 indian rupee per month and i truly say that if that family live in a village of panjab, haryana or western U.P. type comparatively costly area, live with a good living standard. i am live in Muzaffarnagar city of U.P. state of india with my family in a rental home i maintain 2 scooty and one nissan micra diesel car and maintain one two wheeler in saharanpur city where i work. i daily up and down from muzaffarnagar to saharanpur by train and use railway season ticket i use 24 hour internet maintain 2 cell phone and i truly say that my monthly expenditure is less than 10000 indian rupee per month.

poverty can not only depend on earning of a family it is also depend upon availability and cost of things and services which are necessary for a good living standard.
in india a good standard living cost very low than pakistan that's mean in india an average family live with a very good standard than pakistn in low earnings in $ than pakistan. i saw pics and videos of pakistan and i found that average living standard of pakistan is very low than india. an average india have good educational, medical, railways,road transportation, electricity, water resource communication facility than pakistan.

i invite you in india with meet me and visit all over india with me and saw realty by yours eye that an average indian live a very gool life than an average pakistni.

dharmender singh said...

mr haque i appreciate ur research on bad things about india. u seem to be very happy with this. may god give u peace. i acccept the problems we r facing today but we have one thing "HOPE" which u dont have mr Haque. we have a visionary and vibrant leader modi. We are hopefull of getting rid of these things in next two decades but certainly the land of pure is heading towards middle ages. Congrats to u

Riaz Haq said...

Pankaj Mishra in Nw York Times:

"Mr. Modi doesn’t seem to know that India’s reputation as a “golden bird” flourished during the long centuries when it was allegedly enslaved by Muslims. A range of esteemed scholars — from Sheldon Pollock to Jonardon Ganeri — have demonstrated beyond doubt that this period before British rule witnessed some of the greatest achievements in Indian philosophy, literature, music, painting and architecture. The psychic wounds Mr. Naipaul noticed among semi-Westernized upper-caste Hindus actually date to the Indian elite’s humiliating encounter with the geopolitical and cultural dominance first of Europe and then of America."


Riaz Haq said...

"India is home to over 340 million destitute people and is the second poorest country in South Asia after war-torn Afghanistan...In South Asia, Afghanistan has the highest level of destitution at 38%. This is followed by India at 28.5%. Bangladesh (17.2%) and Pakistan (20.7%) have much lower levels" Colin Hunter, Center for Research on Globalization


Anonymous said...

This is one of the best posts from Mr Haq on India.

Its not about India v Pakistan. Lets leave that aside completely. Its about India and India alone.

I agree with the post. India should first focus on the fundamentals - alleviation of poverty, destitution, improving health care, housing, sanitation, etc. There is no point in floating in the fantasy land of superpower stardom which does not give any tangible benefit or could even be detrimental to the poor.

Btw, I am an Indian.

Riaz Haq said...

India's maiden mission to planet Mars, named Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), which took off from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh a short while ago has brought back to the table a long-standing debate: Rocket over roti or the other way round?

Prominent scholar and economist-activist Jean Dreze, who had conceptualised and drafted the first version of the NREGA, is critical of MOM, maintaining that the mission "seems to be part of the Indian elite's delusional quest for superpower status".

As if to prove Dreze's contention, the BBC quoted a top government official as saying: "We have heard these arguments since the 1960s, about India being a poor country not needing or affording a space programme. If we can't dare to dream big it would leave us as hewers of wood and drawers of water! India is today too big to be just living on the fringes of high technology."

Foreign press has cast doubt on the chances of the mission's success. "Since 1960 about 45 missions to Mars have been launched. Of these about a third have failed. And no nation - apart from Mars Express, Europe's maiden venture to Mars representing 20 countries - has succeeded in its maiden venture," the BBC wrote. The CNN said, "Japan made an attempt with the Nozomi orbiter in 1998 but it failed to reach the planet and a Chinese probe was lost along with the Russian Phobos-Grunt mission in January 2012. The UK's Beagle 2 probe separated from the European Space Agency's Mars Express orbiter in 2003 but nothing was ever heard from the lander."

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/mars-mission-indian-elites-delusional-quest-for-superpower-status/1/321731.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's why the world laughs at Indians' delusions of being a global power:

1. Recent World Bank report on student learning in South Asia shows Indian kids perform very poorly on math and reading tests. Buried inside the bad news is a glimmer of what could be considered hope for Pakistan's grade 5 and 8 students outperforming their counterparts in India. While 72% of Pakistan's 8th graders can do simple division, the comparable figure for Indian 8th graders is just 57%. Among 5th graders, 63% of Pakistanis and 73% of Indians CAN NOT divide a 3 digit number by a single digit number, according to the World Bank report titled "Student Learning in South Asia: Challenges, Opportunities, and Policy Priorities". The performance edge of Pakistani kids over their Indian counterparts is particularly noticeable in rural areas. The report also shows that Pakistani children do better than Indian children in reading ability.


2. Indian kids rank at the bottom on international standardized tests like PISA and TIMSS.


3. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen has said India will never be a great power with its uneducated and unhealthy population.

In a recent visit to the LSE, Sen laid out his thoughts in black and white. In an interview to Sonali Campion and Taryana Odayar, he explains why the Narendra Modi government's economic philiosophy is completely wrong — and bound to fail.

"India is the only country in the world which is trying to become a global economic power with an uneducated and unhealthy labour force. It’s never been done before, and never will be done in the future either."

"India is trying to be different from America, Europe, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Singapore, China — all of them. This is not good way of thinking of economics."

Sen then warns of the inherent contradictions of this approach:

"The whole idea that you could somehow separate out the process of economic growth from the quality of the labour force is a mistake against which Adam Smith warned in 1776. "

Sen is harshest when asked about the comparison between India and China

"By 2009 they could bring in a scheme of universal healthcare and by 2012 they are well in the 90s in terms of percentage coverage of health insurance. China are able to do that if ten people at the top are persuaded.

In India, ten people is not sufficient. You have to carry the population. Against the blast of propaganda that happened in the general elections last year — fed on one side by the activism of the Hindutva Parivar, and the other side by the gigantic money of the business community — it is slow to correct ongoing deficiencies."​


Riaz Haq said...

#India is second most ignorant nation of the world after #Mexico: Survey http://www.ibnlive.com/news/india/india-is-second-most-ignorant-nation-of-the-world-survey-1173478.html … via @ibnlive

London: India has the "dubious honour" of being the second most ignorant nation in the world after Mexico, according to a survey which posed questions on issues like inequality, non-religious population, female employment and internet access. The survey conducted by Ipsos MORI, a London-based market research firm, polled 25,000 people from 33 countries and found that while people "over-estimate what we worry about", a lot of major issues are underestimated.
"Mexico and India receive the dubious honour of being the most inaccurate in their perceptions on these issues, while South Koreans are the most accurate, followed by the Irish," the survey said. The rankings of the nations were based on the "Index of Ignorance" which was determined by questions about wealth that the top one per cent own, obesity, non-religious population, immigration, living with parents, female employment, rural living and internet access.

Most Indians "underestimate" how much of their country's wealth is concentrated in the hands of the top 1 per cent, the survey said, adding that the top 1 per cent actually own an "incredible" 70 per cent of all wealth. The survey also found that most Indians "hugely overestimate" the proportions of non-religious people in the country to be 33 per cent when the true figure is under 1 per cent.
While Israel significantly underestimates the proportion of female employment (by 29 percentage points), people in countries like India, Mexico, South Africa and Chile all think of more women in work than really are, it said. India fell in the list of nations which overestimate representation by women in politics. Countries like Columbia, Russia, India and Brazil all think there is better female representation than there really is, the survey said.

However, the Indian population seriously underestimates the rural population of the country and thinks more people have internet access than in reality. In India the average guess among online respondents for internet access is 60 per cent - an overestimation of the true picture of 41 percentage points, the survey added.

Riaz Haq said...

Poor #Delhi Homeless Must Pay a ‘Sleep Mafia’ in #Modi's #India #BJP http://nyti.ms/1JUMMP3

When midnight approaches in Old Delhi and a thick, freezing fog settles over the city, the quilt-wallah Farukh Khan sits on his corner, watching the market for his services come to life.

They shuffle up one by one, men desperate for sleep. The bicycle rickshaw pullers, peeling one of his 20-rupee, or 30-cent, quilts off a pile, fold their bodies into strange angles on the four-foot seats of their vehicles. The day laborers curl their bodies on the frigid sidewalk, sometimes spooned against other men for warmth.

Those who cannot afford to pay Mr. Khan build fires, out of plastic if necessary, and crouch over them, waiting for the night to be over.
Does any city have a more stratified sleep economy than wintertime Delhi? The filmmaker Shaunak Sen, who spent two years researching the city’s sleep vendors for a documentary, “Cities of Sleep,” discovered a sprawling gray market that has taken shape around the city’s vast unmet need for shelter. In some places, it breeds what he calls a “sleep mafia, who controls who sleeps where, for how long, and what quality of sleep.”

The story of privatized sleep follows a familiar pattern in this city: After decades of uncontrolled growth, the city government’s inability to provide services like health care, water, transportation and security has given rise to thriving private industries, efficient enough to fulfill the needs of those who can pay.

But shelter, given Delhi’s extremes of heat and cold, is often a matter of survival. The police report collecting more than 3,000 unidentifiable bodies from the streets every year, typically men whose health broke down after years living outdoors. Winter presents especially brutal choices to homeless laborers, who have no place to protect blankets from thieves in the daytime hours. Some try to hide them in the tops of trees.

The moral quandary of making this into a business is at the center of Mr. Sen’s film, which had its premiere at a Mumbai film festival in November. One of his subjects, Ranjit, takes a protective attitude toward his regular “sleepers,” as he calls them, allowing them to drift off to sleep watching Bollywood films for 10 rupees a night. Another, a hard-nosed businessman called Jamaal, increases his price to 50 rupees, from 30, when the temperature drops.

In one scene, when a man pleads, “Sir, I am a poor man; I’ll die,” Jamaal chuckles and replies: “You’re not allowed to die. Even that will cost 1,250 rupees.”

“Look, sleep is the most demanding master there is; no one can stop it when it has chosen to arrive,” Jamaal says in the film. “We were the first to recognize the sheer economic might of sleep.”

Like many of this city’s businesses, sleep vendors are both highly organized and officially nonexistent. In Mr. Khan’s neighborhood, four quilt vendors have divided the sidewalks and public spaces into quadrants, and when night falls, their customers arrange themselves into colonies of lumpy forms. Some have returned to the same spot every night for years.


Continue reading the main story

Continue reading the main story

A drunken man, his hair matted, stumbled up to Mr. Khan and begged. “Brother, please,” he pleaded, and Mr. Khan uttered a curse under his breath, then grabbed a quilt and thrust it at him.

“If I don’t give him the blanket, he will freeze to death,” he said.

Earlier in the week, this had happened, just a block away from Mr. Khan’s spot. The morning street sweeper had tried to rouse a sleeping man from the sidewalk, but he pulled back the blanket and saw that the man’s feet were stiff.

The man, who was around 35, had been stumbling around drunkenly the night before. No one knew who he was; a police officer asked some other men to go through his pockets, in hopes of finding identification, but they were empty. He covered the body with a sheet, and it lay on the sidewalk until the mortuary workers came, at sunset.

Riaz Haq said...

#India has been a post-truth society for years. #Modi #Trump #alternativefacts http://theconversation.com/india-has-been-a-post-truth-society-for-years-and-maybe-the-west-has-too-71169 … via @_TCGlobal

India: home of post-truth politics

That was the global context of post-truth politics and its advent in the West. But as the US and UK wake up to this new era, it’s worth noting that the world’s largest democracy has been living in a post-truth world for years.

From education to health care and the economy, particularly its slavish obsession with GDP, India can be considered a world leader in post-truth politics.

India’s post-truth era cannot be traced to a single year – its complexities go back generations. But the election of Narendra Modi in 2014 can be marked as a significant inflection point. Ever since, the country has existed under majoritarian rule with widely reported discrimination against minorities.

India’s version of post-truth is different to its Western counterparts due to the country’s socioeconomic status; its per capita nominal income is less than 3% of that of the US (or 4% of that of the UK). Still, post-truth is everywhere in India.

It can be seen in our booming Wall Street but failing main streets, our teacher-less schools and our infrastructure-less villages. We have the ability to influence the world without enjoying good governance or a basic living conditions for so many at home.

Modi’s government has shown how key decisions can be completely divorced from the everyday lives of Indian citizens, but spun to seem like they have been made for their benefit. Nowhere is this more evident than with India’s latest demonetisation drive, which plunged the country into crisis, against the advice of its central bank, and hit poorest people the hardest.

Despite the levels of extreme poverty in India, when it comes to social development, the cult of growth dominates over the development agenda, a trend that Modi has exacerbated, but that started with past governments.

The dichotomy of India’s current post-truth experience was nicely summed up by Arun Shourie, an influential former minister from Modi’s own party. He disagrees with the prime minister, just as many Republicans share sharp differences of opinion with President Trump.

Shourie said the policies of the current administration were equal to his predecessors’ policies, plus a cow.

...there is an argument to be made that the US and the UK have been living in denial of facts and evidence for years. In 2003, after all, both the countries went to war in Iraq over the false notion that Saddam Hussein was harbouring weapons of mass destruction.
Major social change does not happen within the space of a year. Yet, to a large number of observers around the world, the “post-truth” phenomenon seemed to emerge from nowhere in 2016.

Two key events of 2016 shaped our understanding of the post-truth world: one was in June, when Britain voted in favour of leaving the European Union. The other was in November, when political maverick Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States of America. Trump’s administration spent the third day of his presidency speaking of “alternative facts”, and making false claims about the size of the crowds that had attended his inauguration.

For the rest of the world, the importance of both Trump and Brexit can best be gauged by understanding that they happened in the USA and in the UK. The UK was the key driving force of the world from the 19th century until the second world war, the US has been ever since. The US and the UK often have shared a similar point of view on many global geopolitical developments, as strategic allies or by virtue of their “special relationship”.