Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Signs of Pakistan's Economic Rebound Brighten

Shares in the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index trade at 9.6 times reported earnings, the lowest in Asia excluding Japan, after the gauge rose 21 percent in 2009, according to Bloomberg.

Dollar-denominated debt sold by Pakistan returned 86.4 percent so far this year, more than any of the 45 emerging markets tracked by New York-based JPMorgan and 19 developed countries followed by Merrill Lynch & Co.

Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London is bullish about Pakistan because the country is a beneficiary of international support. The U.S. House voted on June 11 to triple economic and development aid and to increase military assistance to stabilize a country vital to the war in neighboring Afghanistan.

While the US aid announcement attracts the attention of investors, the fact is that the Pakistani global diaspora's remittances to Pakistan are far larger than any foreign aid packages. Over 7 billion dollars have already been received in the first eleven months (July-May) of the current fiscal year 2008-09, according to APP.

Foreign direct investment in Pakistan declined by 8 percent to $3.04 billion, compared with $3.31 billion in the year-earlier period, according to Reuters.

In local currency, Pakistan's exports during July-April (2008-2009) were Rs.1,147,435 million (about $14 billion) versus Rs.938,428 million during the corresponding period of last year, showing an increase of 22.27 percent, according to Federal Bureau of Statistics. But the rupee decline against dollar has more than offset any increase in exports.

“We are positive,” said Edwin Gutierrez, who helps oversee $4.5 billion of global emerging-market debt at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London and added Pakistan dollar bonds to his funds earlier this year. “It was pretty clear that the international community is supporting Pakistan and providing it with a decent amount of money.”

An important source of investments in Pakistan are the Islamic nations of Asia and the Middle East. While the Islamic finance is still early in its early development stage, I see it as a crucial vehicle to ensuring in the future that significant part of the wealth of Muslim investors is invested with Muslim businesses in Muslim nations to help them develop. Already, the biggest foreign direct investors in Pakistan are Muslims from Dubai, Malaysia and the Middle East.

APP reported that Malaysia topped the list of investors making Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan during first six month of year 2008, according to data released by Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Foreign Direct Investment during the first five months of current financial year reached US$ 1.8 billion registering an increase of 1.5 percent, export reached to US$ 8.2 billion with a growth of 20 percent and foreign remittance at 2.9 billion registered an impressive increase of 15pc.

The May Bank of Malaysia made the biggest investment of US$ 907 million in banking sector followed by Saudi Arabia with an investment of US$ 750 million in steel sector and UAE with an investment of US$ 500 million in power sector in Pakistan.

The global economic meltdown has not deterred the foreign investors, including Malaysians, from investing in Pakistan, as Pakistan’s economy showed extreme resilience and defied the economic recession with registering growth in FDIs, Export and Foreign Remittance.

The signs of an economic rebound in Pakistan are more visible today, bringing new investors and businesses to Pakistan.

Related Links:

A Trillion Dollar Halal Market


Pakistani Economy Poised For Rebound

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

pakistan has 7 billion usd as remittance. Compare the same with other countries like india which has around 45 billion usd.

further it is dependent on the aid for its forex position. 1.5 billion usd aid has purchased the pakistan government / army to make 2 million refugees within their own country to through out proabably tens of thousand of taliban who were nurtured by pakistan army / government.

Generally pakistani tends to compare themself with india and say they are better off and riaz is no excpetion. However the reality is too far from the wishful thinking.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon:

You want to know the reality of poverty, hunger and backwardness in India? Let me share some data with you:

An important way to measure progress in Pakistan for the poor is is terms of the probability of Pakistan achieving the UN Millennium Dev Goals (MDGs). Pakistan ranks at 45, well ahead of India at 62 and it is included in the medium performing countries. PHI is a new composite indicator – the Poverty and Hunger Index (PHI) – developed to measure countries’ performance towards achieving MDG1 on halving poverty and hunger by 2015. The PHI combines all five official MDG1 indicators, including a) the proportion of population living on less than US$ 1/day, b) poverty gap ratio, c) share of the poorest quintile in national income or consumption, d) prevalence of underweight in children under five years of age, and d) the proportion of population undernourished.

In the context of India’s unprecedented economic growth (9-10 percent annually) and national food security, over 60 percent of Indian children are wasted, stunted, underweight or a combination of the above. As a result, India ranks number 62 along with Bangladesh at 67 in the PHI (Poverty Hunger Index)ranking out of a total of 81 countries. Both nations are included among the low performing countries in progress towards MDG1 (Millennium Development Goals) with countries such as Nepal (number 58), Ethiopia (number 60), or Zimbabwe (number 74).

The World Hunger Index of 88 countries published by IFPRI last year ranked India at 66 while Pakistan was slightly better at 61 and Bangladesh slightly worse at 70.

India remains among the worst in all the rankings of nations on basic indicators like poverty, hunger, illiteracy, disease, sanitation etc etc

As to your boast about India's 45 billion dollars in remittances, India's remittances should be about 56 billion dollars compared to Pakistan because of India's much larger population.

Anonymous said...

Riaz, other than the same Pakistan(45), India(60) ranking, please bring on something more credible. Maybe if we consider that Pakistan is practically living on foreign aid from donors who are terror blackmailed, then I wonder where the Pak. ranking would be, if a ranking makes sense at all, for a country which claims not to know where its borders are and not to have control of its population. When Taliban is just miles away from the capital city of your affluent country, what is the point of talking about PE ratio and debt/equity ratio? If your contrct wont be honoured as Taliban dont believe in any contract other than Shariah, what is the sense in talking about parameters that only make sense in a civilized society?

"As to your boast about India's 45 billion dollars in remittances, India's remittances should be about 56 billion dollars compared to Pakistan because of India's much larger population."

If India has more population, then there will be more poor people as well..Add to this that India is a much more multicultural and tolerant society as a whole, so that these statistics does'nt make much sense for Pakistan or China

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: Still not convinced, huh?

Here's more for you from a recent Times of India report headlined "India Tops World Hunger Chart":

NEW DELHI: India is failing its rural poor with 230 million people being undernourished — the highest for any country in the world. Malnutrition
accounts for nearly 50% of child deaths in India as every third adult (aged 15-49 years) is reported to be thin (BMI less than 18.5).

According to the latest report on the state of food insecurity in rural India, more than 1.5 million children are at risk of becoming malnourished because of rising global food prices.

The report said that while general inflation declined from a 13-year high exceeding 12% in July 2008 to less than 5% by the end of January 2009, the inflation for food articles doubled from 5% to over 11% during the same period.

Foodgrain harvest during 2008-09 is estimated to be a record 228 million tonnes. However, the requirement for the national population would exceed 250 million tonnes by 2015.

India ranks 94th in the Global Hunger Index of 119 countries, the report said.

Brought out by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), the report points to some staggering figures. More than 27% of the world's undernourished population lives in India while 43% of children (under 5 years) in the country are underweight. The figure is among the highest in the world and is much higher than the global average of 25% and also higher than sub-Saharan Africa's figure of 28%.

More than 70% of children (under-5) suffer from anaemia and 80% of them don't get vitamin supplements. According to the report, the proportion of anaemic children has actually increased by 6% in the past six years with 11 out of 19 states having more than 80% of its children suffering from anaemia.

Percentage of women with chronic energy deficiency is stagnant at 40% over six years with the proportion in fact increasing in Assam, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana during the same period.

The report said that the ambitious Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) was failing. "Apart from failing to serve the intended goal of reduction of food subsidies, the TPDS also led to greater food insecurity for large sections of the poor and the near-poor. These targeting errors arise due to imperfect information, inexact measurement of household characteristics, corruption and inefficiency," the report said.

It added, "Another problem of the TPDS was the issue of quantity of grain that a household would be entitled to. The TPDS initially restricted the allotments to BPL households to 10 kg per month. For a family of five, this amounts to 2 kg per capita. Using the ICMR recommended norm of 330 grams per day, the requirement per person per month would be 11 kg and that for a family of five would be 55 kg."

The Union Budget of 2001 increased the allotment to 20 kg per month and raised it further to 35 kg in April 2002.

The report also questioned the government's definitions of hunger and poverty. "The fact that calorie deprivation is increasing during a period when the proportion of rural population below the poverty line is claimed to be declining rapidly, highlights the increasing disconnect between official poverty estimates and calorie deprivation," it said.

"Nutrition security involving physical, economic and social access to balanced diet, clean drinking water, sanitation and primary healthcare for every child, woman and man is fundamental to providing all our citizens an opportunity for a healthy and productive life," said Prof M S Swaminathan.

Almost 80% of rural households do not have access to toilets within their premises. The figure exceeds 90% in states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa and MP.

The proportion of stunted children (under-5) at 48% is again among the highest in the world. Every second child in the country is stunted, according to the health ministry's figures.

Around 30% of babies in India are born underweight.

Anonymous said...

Riaz:

First anon. was a different guy.
I, who posted 3rd comment am a different anon ;-)

As for the reply, I wish you had replied with some solid counter arguments to my comments rather than some copy paste. I think your effort to paint India black and Pakistan "green" wont get too many convincing ears, so long as the news that come out of your country is horrible, and news that comes out of India is predominantly positive. There are poor people in both countries, but there may be a big difference in civil societies - and if you don't have basic stability, then hunger statistics are just a joke. Or you may convince me that Taliban is better in hunger reduction than democratic govt. of India. After throwing acid on teenage girls' faces, may be they throw a piece of bread to them as well...

Riaz Haq said...

Anon:
So you want to pick one example of an unfortunate girl who became victim of acid attack. Why don't you then also talk about systematic discrimination against women in India that begins even before they are born. Millions of female fetuses have been aborted by abusing the ultrasound technology, millions more have been killed in what is now as female infanticide, thousands more are tortured and killed because they do not bring dowry, and widows have routinely have their heads shaved and left in temples to fend for themselves.

Anonymous said...

"Anon:
So you want to pick one example of an unfortunate girl who became victim of acid attack. Why don't you then also talk about systematic discrimination against women in India that begins even before they are born. Millions of female fetuses have been aborted by abusing the ultrasound technology, millions more have been killed in what is now as female infanticide, thousands more are tortured and killed because they do not bring dowry, and widows have routinely have their heads shaved and left in temples to fend for themselves."

Riaz, "one" unfortunate girl? We hear may be one out of 100. Your opinion of India's systematic discrimination against women is just a wishful thinking. We have female leaders in business and politics and in all walks of life - something that Pakistan can only dream of. Anyway my point was that, in a country like Pakistan where there is no civil society, and the whole existential strategy is based on foreign aid, what is the point of talking about these hunger indexes?

The whole idea of existence of Pakistan is based on hostility to Kafirs - if I ask what is your contribution to civilization - a big zero. Throughout cold war, you got billions from USA and now USA is infidel number 1. India on the other hand, despite poverty have contributed many things positive and is widely seen as a force of stability and civility in an otherwise hostile, violent and undemocratic neighbourhood.

Anonymous said...

Raiz

Fundamental difference is that the female discrimination is banned by law in india but it is more accepted as a law in pakistan.

Taliban SWAT had destroyed all female schools as a great credit for pakistan which you could count.

IN fact the best complement came from pakistan's master obama saying to american's that they have to buck up against chinese and indian. Probably obama thought that pakistan is part of america or pakistan is no great threat to the employment of america or he must be feeling happy with the ally which continuously provide job for its army.

Latest credit could jaizya tax for sikhs / hindus in pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon:
It seems you only have opinions but no facts to back them up.

Let's start with women in powerful positions in Pakistan. No only has there been a woman prime minister in Pakistan, the current speaker of Pak parliament is a woman and there are dozens of women in parliament. Some fly passenger airplanes, others are Air Force fighter pilots. In addition to dozens of women colleges and universities, some of the co-educational professional institutions of higher learning have 50% or higher enrollment of women. There are other indicators such as women's growing numbers in the traditional male professions such as engineering, law, medicine, business, the police and the military. Women's ranks have also grown in the nation's entertainment, news and mass media and they are much freer than ever to express themselves in the choice of appearance, speech, clothing, arts, entertainment etc. There have even been performances of The Vagina Monologues in Pakistan. Localized with Urdu and Punjabi words, The Vagina Monologues was first staged in Islamabad in 2003 for an audience of 160, mostly women, followed by performances for mixed audiences in Karachi and Lahore. Organized with AMAL, an NGO working on gender rights in Pakistan, the actresses added information about local incidents of violence against women and honor killings.

As to Pakistan's contribution, Pakistanis are making contributions in a whole range of activities from art and literature to science and technology. Pakistanis are writing/publishing many best sellers, Pakistani scientific papers are being cited in large numbers (according to Sciencewatch), doing research at CERN and in Antarctica, designing/building UAVs being used by many, including US border patrol on border with Mexico, Pakistanis in Si Valley are designing everything from processors to routers to advanced software programs etc.

As to foreign aid, India has received far more foreign aid than Pakistan, over $100 billion since 1950s.

You should check your facts before mouthing off hateful opinions.

Anonymous said...

Riaz

We will do one thing. We all will say unanimously that pakistan is rocking with investments and developments. Let us close this argument and go to our work.

Anonymous said...

Riazbhai why you waste time on these "smart" fellows from India. They do not know real Pakistan. They hate Pakistan. We do not hate India. We want to just live peacefully. They only see how our house is on fire and enjoy the show. They even throw petrol on the fire (Baluchistan and FATA). But we have built this country from nothing and we can take it many places. These nefarious designs by the enemies of Pakistan will be defeated.

Pakistan Paindabad!

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: I don't deal in hyperbole like "Shining India" or " Pakistan rocking with investments" etc.

I deal in facts as I see them. India is not "shining" nor is Pakistan "rocking". Both are poor and backward third world nation with great potential that has not been realized.

Like India, Pakistan did very well in economic growth until 2007.

nd Pakistan is the most egalitarian nation in its region as measured by Gini coefficient.

According to the new UN-HABITAT report on the State of the World’s Cities 2008/9: Harmonious Cities, China has the highest level of consumption inequality based on Gini Coefficient in the Asia region, higher than Pakistan (0.298), Bangladesh (0.318), India (0.325), and Indonesia (0.343), among others.” Gini coefficient is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1: A low Gini coefficient indicates more equal income or wealth distribution, while a high Gini coefficient indicates more unequal distribution. 0 corresponds to perfect equality (everyone having exactly the same income) and 1 corresponds to perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income).

So the poor in Pakistan benefited from growth far more than they have in other nations including India, Bangladesh, China, Sri Lanka, Indonesia etc etc.

Another way to measure progress in Pakistan for the poor is is terms of the probability of Pakistan achieving the UN Millennium Dev Goals (MDGs). Pakistan ranks at 45, well ahead of India at 62 and it is included in the medium performing countries. PHI is a new composite indicator – the Poverty and Hunger Index (PHI) – developed to measure countries’ performance towards achieving MDG1 on halving poverty and hunger by 2015. The PHI combines all five official MDG1 indicators, including a) the proportion of population living on less than US$ 1/day, b) poverty gap ratio, c) share of the poorest quintile in national income or consumption, d) prevalence of underweight in children under five years of age, and d) the proportion of population undernourished.

In the context of India’s unprecedented economic growth (9-10 percent annually) and national food security, over 60 percent of Indian children are wasted, stunted, underweight or a combination of the above. As a result, India ranks number 62 along with Bangladesh at 67 in the PHI (Poverty Hunger Index)ranking out of a total of 81 countries. Both nations are included among the low performing countries in progress towards MDG1 (Millennium Development Goals) with countries such as Nepal (number 58), Ethiopia (number 60), or Zimbabwe (number 74).

The World Hunger Index of 88 countries published by IFPRI last year ranked India at 66 while Pakistan was slightly better at 61 and Bangladesh slightly worse at 70.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: Female discrimination in India is embedded in your holy books and your culture. No law banning it can or will make any difference.

1.1 VEDIC FEMALE INFANTICIDE
The horrible custom of female infanticide was widely practiced by the barbaric Vedic Aryan tribes who invaded India. It is these Vedic nomads who introduced this depravity into India. The Vedas prescribe an intense hatred for women, and female children were considered highly undesirable in the nomadic Aryan patriarchal view. Indeed, so deep-rooted was the desire for male children that the Vedas prescribe numerous prayers for male offspring :

Atharva Veda.6.2.3 : " Let a female child be born somewhere else; here, let a male child be born."
-- [ Ath.Ved.VI.2.3 ] [ cf. Peri ]

These verses were recited whenever an Aryan couple wished to have a child, and display considerable discrimination against women even in the Vedic age. Nor does the `wonderful' treatment of women in Vedic religion end here. The `holy' and `great' Vedas explicitly sanction the practice of female infanticide. Indeed, the real reason for this truly animal practice lies deep in the blood-stained verses of the Vedas. The following verse, from the `sacred' Vedas of the `noble' faith of Hinduism, allows the practice, and takes it for granted as a normal practice in Vedic religion :
Taittirya Samhita VI.5.10.3 : " Hence they [ Aryans ] reject a female child when born, and take up a male."
< Sans. " Tasmat striyam jatam parasyanti ut pumamsam haranti " >
-- [ Taitt.Samh.VI.5.10.3 ] [ Muir I 26 ]


Nor has it stopped here. The Brahmins have perverted modern technology to develop a new variety of female infanticide, namely female foeticide, which is now spreading rapidly in Brahmin-Occupied India. In Tamil Nadu it is now resorted to, in addition to the time-tested methods of starvation, burial of live children and suffocation [ Tam ]. The latter methods appear natural and thus allow the mother to circumvent the law, whilst the more new-fangled hi-tech methods are technically illegal. These laws on paper are the result of Ambedkar's law-making : the Brahmins opposed any legislation against female infanticide. However, the Brahmins have made sure that these laws are not enforced. This was the experience of Malli, a Tamil woman, describing how her child had been murdered :

" She knew someone may have already inserted a grain into her daughter's mouth, or fed her yerakkam pal [ poison ], or may have drowned her in a bucket of water."
[ Shobha ]

Source: http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/594-578.aspx

Anonymous said...

Riaz

Pls verify and revert on the followers of atharvana veda in india. It is supposed to consist of black magic and other material related power. Hardly you will have any family vowing to atharvana vedas but for tantrics.

It shows your uttur ignorance with regard to the status of woman in a brahmin family. Female infanticide is practiced more by vaishyas and sudras.

To give the importance given to mother, there are many but most important is that the sanyasi is allowed to do the last rites for his mother and not for the father.

http://annaswamynatarajan.sulekha.com/blog/post/2009/05/touching-words-of-adi-sankara-on-motherhood.htm

Here is the original slokas and meaning in english. If you can appreciate.

Jadev,India said...

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn. -Gone with the Wind
Thanks for enlightening us Indians with commentary on Adarva Veda(Holy Book ha ha..nice one)..I hope you are not practicing stuff given in it.I don't have the caliber yet to read those stuff..so I assume what you posted(probably from some enlightening Christian website) is true. Its our fortune that you didn't quote from Kama Sutra(another holy book).

See, this is the difference. In India, we personally define(Ishta devta concept) what is holy and what is not so holy.There is nothing "inscrutable" books or ideas in Indian culture(May be you will piss off some Sangh Parivar guys or followers of Religion of Peace called Islam). Adharva veda is supposedly written by two groups of rishis called Atharvanas and the Angirasa. People are free to pick and choose what they what from thousands of volumes of ancient wisdom (and commentaries) or discard it altogether.It is spiritual science. People can agree or disagree with it with arguments according to tharka shastra(science of methodical debate) and get stuff fixed. That is how Sati Practice was mitigated..not just as a consequence of law or a fatwa by clueless jihadi clerics..

If I got some wisdom from some book or a practice that elevates me(spiritually) as a person then I will say that book or guy is sort of holy to me.

I thought that Aryan Invasion Theory was debunked in favour of Aryan Migration Theory(in 1993 itself)..except in Indian left-congress circles and Pakistan+OIC countries.It is indeed very paradoxical for a guy from certified terror sponsoring country following religion of barbaric countries in the middle-east to call names a towering civilization which actively contributes to world's spiritual needs through Yoga,Ayurveda and unfathomable wisdom of Gita,Vedas and Upanishads.You are increasing fitting into my straight jacket view of Pakistanis :-).
If you go to wikipedia..there is a heading under Aryan Invasion Theory(Histories and controversies)
and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Aryan_migration

Europeans,Japs,Uncle and Chinese are feeding & keeping alive a venomous snake which should die for world peace.We are a world acknowledged "cultural superpower"(Stephen Cohen)..constructive doing our dharma in the world and you people are a "part" of a bunch of intolerant cancerous species migrated to our western border. Hope David Kilcullen got it right this time..and hope this Cancer affecting Asia will breath its last breath and do us a big favor.

Anonymous said...

THE FUTURE
Despite incontrovertible proof of its policy failures, the United States will continue to spend countless billions to fund intractable and corrupt Pakistan regimes in the name of waging “The War on Terror” … or war on whatever else Washington can exploit, invent or promote.

Target For Terror A year later, in the Spring of 2009, though President Obama cited Pakistan among the most pressing challenges facing his Presidency, the general public still knew next to nothing about the country, what had led to the escalating war … and especially what justified increased US involvement. Twenty-one thousand additional troops and a tough new military commander were sent by Obama to fight the Afghan war more vigorously. The consequences were predictable: the war spread beyond the borders into Pakistan and civilian casualties mounted.
In May 2009, at the behest of Washington, the Pakistani military launched a massive offensive in the Swat Valley to rid it of Taliban forces … as if such a feat were feasible. What had been achieved was that three million civilians were forced to flee their homes, creating a humanitarian crisis which refugees blamed on the US for pressuring Pakistan to launch the campaign. Suffering Pakistanis now added to the already swelled ranks of Muslims seeking to avenge the tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands mutilated by America in the ongoing Afghan and Iraq Wars. But when promises to retaliate were fulfilled, the media and politicians would attribute the attacks to “militants” and “insurgents,” rather than call them acts of revenge by angry people who had lost everything … including the lives of loved ones: “Pakistani militants launch bomb raid on hotel.” Financial Times, 10 June 2009. Back then, as in 2012, bombing innocent people staying in hotels was called an “act of terror,” while bombing innocent people staying in their homes was called a “surgical strike.

Asif Kidwai said...

Okay, I am of Pakistani origin and my sympathies and well wishes remain with Pakistan (and not necessarily at the expense of India's well being).

While I tend to agree that India has recently made greater progress toward "human development" and Pakistan should be doing better; I remain intrigued and concerned that despite Indian claims to be a multicultural tolerant society, the percentage of Muslims in responsible positions within Indian Scientific, Business and Educational institutions is much lower than their percentage in the general Indian populace.

I don't need to be reminded with the names of Mr. Abul Kalam or Mr. Zakir Hussain - since that's more about symbolism, not substance ! I am making a valid observation with no interest in debating incessantly with ANON or Anonymous.

Anonymous said...

"Anon: Female discrimination in India is embedded in your holy books and your culture. No law banning it can or will make any difference."

Riaz - your wishful thinking will remain a wishful thinking. You dont see many Indian Hindus(Btw, I am not a Hindu) giving Fatwa to kill or throw acid in women's face. Compare this with your ideological Gurus Saudi Arabia and Afghan Taleban. If your glorious description of gender inequality comparison between India and Pakistan is true, then it would have taken an extraordinary conspiracy by Infidels to make up all the stories of ill treatment of women in OIC countries while covering it up in India(where there is a vibrant free press). If you are concerned about treatment of women in Hindu holy texts, wouldn't it be better to clean your own dirty laundry first - ie, honour killing, concubinage and systematic discriminatory laws based on Hadis and Quran?

Anonymous said...

Pakistan has asked for another 4 billion usd form mulilateral institution further has asked more aid from usa for creating 2 million refugees in house.

Riaz Haq said...

BBC website has a pictorial today of charities feeding the poor. One picture shows the big kitchen of one charity alone that feeds 40,000 people every day in Karachi.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8338407.stm