Why is America Losing in Afghanistan?

American counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan has come under a lot of criticism recently as the resurgent Taliban have made significant gains. Not only are the Taliban controlling over 70% of the territory in Afghanistan, but they have also recently demonstrated their ability to strike at will in the heart of Kabul, the heavily fortified capital of the nation comparable to the Green Zone in Baghdad.

The latest reports indicate that there is a lot to worry about not just the failing strategy, but how badly the war is being executed on the ground. A lot of civilian casualties and lack of security have turned the population against the US forces. And now, according to the Batimore Sun, the Pentagon has reportedly lost track of some 87,000 weapons handed out without proper accounting to Afghan army and police units.

The weapons included rifles, pistols, machine guns, grenade launchers, shotguns, mortars and other weapons, the Government Accountability Office said. The GAO is the investigations arm of Congress.

The weapons are among about 240,000 small arms and other sensitive items, including 2,410 highly prized night vision devices that were given to Afghan security forces being trained by the U.S. military. The shipments included about 79,000 AK-47 assault rifles, the standard weapon used by the Taliban and other insurgents.

The U.S. command also failed to keep serial numbers or other records on about 135,000 weapons donated by allies and handed over to Afghan security forces, the GAO said.

Some of the lost or stolen US military equipment is starting to turn up for sale in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, according to Shahan Mufti of GlobalPost. Mufti describes Peshawar as a Silk Road town near the Afghan border where the black market has thrived and the military spoils of empires hawked openly throughout history.

Mufti recently purchased a U.S. military laptop for $650 from a small shop, which is known as the “Sitara Market,” on the western edge of the sprawling open-air markets on the edge of Peshawar.

The laptop, which Mufti says has clear U.S. military markings and serial numbers, contained restricted U.S. military information, as well as software for military platforms, the identities of numerous military personnel and information about weaknesses and flaws in American military vehicles being employed in the war in Afghanistan.

The leaks of the U.S. military’s electronic information on hard disks has occurred in the past. In April, 2006, the Los Angeles Times uncovered the story of confidential military information being smuggled off Bagram air base in Afghanistan on miniature hard drives and sold in markets no more than two hundred yards away.

Instead of accepting responsibility for bad US strategy and continual bungling, the response by the American military in Afghanistan is to shift the entire blame for their failures on Afghan leaders or Pakistani military. President Obama has spoken with over a dozen world leaders since taking office, and he finally called and spoke with Pakistan's President Zardari yesterday. While he continues to say Afghanistan is his top priority, the new president has yet to speak directly with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. He has delegated that job to Richard Holbrooke, who is not even a member of his cabinet.

It is clear from the developments over the last several months that the US needs a complete overhaul of both its overall strategy and tactics. Just the planned troops surge alone will not suffice. There has to be a comprehensive new strategy for political dialog, reconstruction and smart counterinsurgency tactics in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Related Links:

WorldFocus on Afghanistan

Pakistan's Prospects

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Obama's South Asia Policy

Military Occupation of Kashmir

Bruce Riedel Interview

Clues to Obama's South Asia Policy

Taliban Preparing for Kabul Siege

"You guys better get out of town fast," Faridoon, a 21-year-old Afghan says as quietly as possible to the two Newsweek reporters who just walked into his shop, just outside of Kabul. "There's Taliban everywhere." Clearly, the Afghan does not want to been seen doing business with the Americans. He's afraid of the Taliban laying a siege around Kabul by taking over the belt of towns and villages surrounding the capital.

"Kabul's early morning silence was broken last night first by the crunch of rockets exploding in the city, then by the emergency sirens at Nato headquarters warning the officers and generals to head for the shelters," says a BBC report following the killing of ten French soldiers by the Taliban insurgents yesterday.

After Kandahar and Peshawar, Kabul is the third major city to be targeted by the resurgent Taliban. Recently, the Taliban have staged daring raids in Kandhahar and briefly taken over parts of the city and freed large numbers of prisoners. On June 16, the Associated Press reported that the Taliban assault on the outskirts of Kandahar is the latest display of prowess by the militants despite a record number of U.S. and NATO troops in the country. The push into the Arghandab district — a lush region filled with grape and pomegranate groves that the Soviet army could never conquer — comes three days after a Taliban attack on Kandahar's prison that freed 400 insurgent fighters. Those fighters, NATO conceded Monday, appear to be massing on the doorstep of the Taliban's former power base. The city of Kandahar lies only 10 miles to the southeast.

In Peshawar, heavily armed bands of Taliban fighters have been intimidating people into observing their strict interpretation of Islamic law. In the last two months, they have suddenly tightened the noose on this city of three million people, one of Pakistan’s biggest, establishing bases in surrounding towns and, in daylight, abducting residents for large ransom. A New York Times report says they have turned up at courthouses in nearby towns, ordering judges to stay away. On Thursday, they stormed a women’s voting station on the city outskirts, and they are now regularly kidnapping people from the city’s bazaars and homes. There is pervasive fear that the city could fall to the Taleban at any moment. The provincial NWFP government in Peshawar, recently elected by a large majority, appears helpless against the Taliban.

As the US-led NATO coalition in Afghanistan and the post-Musharraf government in Pakistan find themselves in policy disagreements and total disarray, with Hamid Karzai playing the spoiler, the resurgent Taliban appear to be preparing for the takeover of major cities on both sides of the border: Kabul and Kandahar in Afghanistan and Peshawar in Pakistan. This is something that would have been considered unthinkable just a few months ago. The concern until recently was focused on the tribal areas of Pakistan. Now the Taliban are asserting themselves in the settled areas, such as Swat and Peshawar, long controlled by the Pakistani government and attempting to enforce their tribal code of morality and cultural norms. The Taliban have clearly taken advantage of the sincere efforts of the new Pakistani government to bring peace in the region. They have used the lack of pressure, and windfall narco-profits from Afghanistan, to regroup and rearm themselves to push their broader agenda of seizing control of Islamabad and Kabul.

The actions of NATO and Pakistani military in response to the Taleban's latest offensive appear to be too little, too late. An effective response to this seriously deteriorating situation requires a joint NATO-Pakistani strategy backed by strong coordinated action to strike a powerful blow against the Taliban on both sides of the border. This powerful action must then be followed by sustained pressure on both sides of the border to prevent Talebanization of the entire region with all its disastrous consequences for the people in Pakistan and Afghanistan and wider implications for the rest of the world.

Taliban Insurgency Funded by Poppy and Marble

Funding is always a large part of any effective and sustained insurgency, in addition to other factors such as local population support, arms supply, depth of insurgents commitment, recruiting and training. Several recent reports indicated that the Taliban are doing very well on the funding front on both sides of the border. Of course, the funding from other enterprises pales in comparison to the poppy trade, that occurs in plain sight with active connivance, of the Afghan authorities. Below are recent media reports that capture the essence of what is going on in Afghanistan and Pakistan's FATA region.

An excerpt from the National Security Network(NSN) report:

In plain view of the United States and the international community, the opium trade is overwhelming Afghanistan’s legitimate government. The facts are stunning: in 2001, after a Taliban ban on poppy cultivation, Afghanistan only produced 11 percent of the world’s opium. Today it produces 93 percent of the global crop; the drug trade accounts for half of its GDP; and nearly one in seven Afghans is involved in the opium trade. In Afghanistan, more land is being used for poppy cultivation than for coca cultivation in all of Latin America. The trade strengthens the government’s enemies and – unless its large place in the Afghan economy is permanently curtailed by crop replacements and anti-poverty efforts – poses a potentially fatal obstacle to keeping the country stable and peaceful.

Afghanistan is caught in a vicious cycle. The fall of the Taliban brought the end of their highly coercive crop reduction program. A combination of U.S. inattention and widespread insecurity and poverty allowed poppy cultivation to explode. As the opium economy expanded, it spread corruption and empowered anti-government forces, undermining the Afghan state, leading to more poverty and instability, which in turn only served to further entrench the drug trade. Meanwhile the illicit activity has been a boon to the Taliban insurgency, which has traditionally used poppy cultivation as a lever to improve its own position. Today, the Taliban relies on opium revenues to purchase weapons, train its members, and buy support.


A recent New York Times report talked about how the Taliban took over a stone quarry in Pakistan's tribal belt to generate revenue. Here is an excerpt of the story:

A rare, unescorted visit to the region this month, during which the Taliban detained for two days a freelance reporter and a photographer working for The New York Times, revealed how the Taliban were taking over territory, using the income they exact to strengthen their hold and turn themselves into a self-sustaining fighting force. The quarry alone has already brought the Taliban tens of thousands of dollars, Mr. Zaman said.

The seizure of the quarry is a measure of how in recent months, as the Pakistani military has pulled back under a series of peace deals, the Pakistani Taliban have extended their reach through more of the rugged territory in northern Pakistan known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or FATA.

Today the Taliban not only settle disputes in their consolidated domain but they also levy taxes, smuggle drugs and other contraband, and impose their own brand of rough justice, complete with courts and prisons.

An earlier New York Times report last year implicated the Afghan Police in the drug trade. Here's an excerpt:

....an altogether different side of Afghanistan’s security forces was evident when a Dutch and Afghan patrol visited a police compound in Oruzgan Province. The police officers there were cultivating poppy within the compound’s walls, openly participating in the heroin trade. The Afghan Army squad that visited them, itself only partly equipped, did nothing.


Talking about the effectiveness of the Taliban as a fighting force, here are a couple of statements President Karazai of Afghanistan made to Der Spiegel recently:

"They did a lot wrong, but they also did a few things right. I wish I had the Taliban as my soldiers. I wish they were serving me and not people in Pakistan or others. When we came back to Afghanistan, the international community brought back all those people who had turned away from the Taliban ..."

"We wanted to arrest a really terrible warlord, but we couldn't do it because he is being protected by a particular country (Germany). We found out that he was being paid $30,000 a month to stay on his good side. They even used his soldiers as guards ....I don't want to name the country (Germany) because it will hurt a close friend and ally. But there are also many other countries who contract the Afghan militias and their leaders. So I can only work where I can act, and I must always calculate what will happen before doing anything."

There is plenty of blame to go around in allowing the Taliban to become powerful on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border. They have established themselves as an effective alternative to the age-old tribal elders jirga system. In fact, they have replaced the old system as defacto rulers capable of settling tribal disputes and managing the routine affairs normally reserved for the state. It is clear that the actions that enabled the Taliban to seize local tribal control and fund their insurgency are going to be recorded in history as the biggest mistake by US and NATO allies. Combine the strong funding with the extraordinary zeal of the Taliban and you have the most difficult situation that we see on the ground today. Just a "military surge" will not do the trick here. It'll require a multi-faceted carrots and sticks approach and tough decisions to change some of the bad choices made by the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and NATO in Afghanistan.

Yet another Peace Deal and Shia Blockade

News headlines from Pakistan's tribal belt proclaim a new "Peace Deal" with "militants" along with an appeal for the Shia victims of the Kurram agency blockade imposed by the Taliban. On the surface, these two developments seem disconnected.

The News Headlines:
The "Peace Deal" involves a leading militant in Pakistan's Khyber region, Mangal Bagh, and the local administration to end nearly two weeks of fighting, according to the BBC.

Another BBC report indicates that doctors in Pakistan's north western tribal region of Kurram have appealed for urgent medical aid to avert a humanitarian crisis. Shia Muslim areas in Kurram have been cut off by the Taliban from the rest of the country since November 2007 following violence between Shias and Sunnis.

No Strategy Behind Peace Deals:

Are these "Peace Deals" being made one deal at a time in a piecemeal way? Are there any enforcement mechanisms? Is there a comprehensive strategy to end the Taliban insurgency? Or is it just an interim effort to the postpone the inevitable battle for another day?

Given the history of the past "Peace Deals", each deal has helped the Taliban become stronger to make further demands. The Taliban have not only solidified their grip on the tribal belt on both sides of the Durand line, but the militants are now feeling strong enough to threaten settled areas in Swat and Peshawar as well as Kandahar. They are not on the defensive in FATA any more. They are bringing the war to Pakistan's and Afghanistan's major cities, including the capitals.

What Do the Taliban Want?

So, what do the Taliban want? Recently I had an email exchange with a gentleman in Pakistan on this question. I am sharing with you the message I received and the my reply below:

The Message I got:
No one wants to give the Country to Taliban and ironically neither are the Taliban interested.
All they want is purity in the Muslims all over the world, including, but not limited to Pakistan.
Their aims are simple. All Men should grow long beards, and be dressed properly, i.e. kurta (long tunic) shalwar (baggy pants) and turban.
Women were created to serve the menfolk, nothing more, nothing less. They should reproduce and look after the children, do house chores, like sweeping, washing of dirty linen etc. For doing all this they do not need to go to school and get education. Education at home is enough.
Since music, video, films and the like are all haram (forbidden), all indulging in these sins should be made example of. Video Shops, cinema houses, theaters and the like should be burnt down.
Idolatry is sin, so there should be no statues, no paintings of humans and animals, no cameras, still or movie.
Riba (Interest) is haram (forbidden) so there should be no banks, no cooperatives, and the like.
All females should be veiled, from 6 years and above, and the veil should be total coverage which some low intellect people call shuttle cock. (helps boost the textile industry)
As long as Muslims adopt this (what is the basic edicts of Islam) the Taliban would not bother them.

My Answer:
Really? I like your sarcastic tone. Here's more in the same vein.
If what you say is correct (and I have no reason to doubt it), who will be the judge, the jury and the executioner?
Isn't there a need to have a ministry of vice and virtue?
And the powerful intelligence service and religious police?
So , the bottom line is, they do want power to become the final arbiters of good and evil. Of who is a Muslim and who is not.
They want a theocratic Police state, not democracy.
And they want exclusive monopoly on the use of violence in society.

How Should Pakistanis Respond?

While the tone in this exchange is satirical, the topic is extremely serious with far-reaching consequences for Pakistan, South Asia and the world. Though his remarks are tongue-in-cheek, the gentleman I corresponded with clearly understands the Taliban agenda.

But do the rest of the Pakistanis understand it well enough to take a clear position? Why is there so much ambivalence on this subject in Pakistan? A majority of Pakistanis favor their government not fighting Al-Qaeda and Taliban but negotiating with the terror outfits, while viewing US as the greatest threat to their personal safety, according to a recent survey by the Center for Public Opinion and the New America Foundation. Frequent US attacks causing large numbers of innocent civilian deaths in Afghanistan and Pakistan reinforce this thinking. It seems to me that many Pakistanis are willing to accept the myth that the Taliban are fighting for Islam by standing up to "evil" Americans and America's allies in "war on terror". What they really need to understand is that this a defining battle between two competing visions of Pakistani society. A battle for a modern, pluralistic and democratic Pakistan versus a medieval, theocratic state bent on coercive implementation of their misguided interpretation of the Shariah laws. Pakistanis need to stop being confused or neutral in this fight and clearly understand the large implications of the Taliban's success for their own lives.

Cartoon by Kevin Kallaugher, The Economist

Resurgent Taliban Threaten Kandahar, Peshawar

As the US-led NATO coalition in Afghanistan and the new government in Pakistan find themselves in policy disagreements and total disarray, with Hamid Karzai playing the spoiler, the resurgent Taliban appear to be preparing for the takeover of major cities on both sides of the border: Kandahar in Afghanistan and Peshawar in Pakistan. This is something that would have been considered unthinkable just a few months ago. The concern until recently was focused on the tribal areas of Pakistan. Now the Taliban are asserting themselves in the settled areas, such as Swat and Peshawar, long controlled by the Pakistani government and attempting to enforce their tribal code of morality and cultural norms. The Taliban have clearly taken advantage of the sincere efforts of the new Pakistani government to bring peace in the region. They have used the lack of pressure, and windfall narco-profits from Afghanistan, to regroup and rearm themselves to push their broader agenda of seizing control of Islamabad and Kabul.

Recently, the Taliban have staged daring raids in Kandhahar and briefly taken over parts of the city and freed large numbers of prisoners. On June 16, the Associated Press reported that the Taliban assault on the outskirts of Kandahar is the latest display of prowess by the militants despite a record number of U.S. and NATO troops in the country. The push into the Arghandab district — a lush region filled with grape and pomegranate groves that the Soviet army could never conquer — comes three days after a Taliban attack on Kandahar's prison that freed 400 insurgent fighters. Those fighters, NATO conceded Monday, appear to be massing on the doorstep of the Taliban's former power base. The city of Kandahar lies only 10 miles to the southeast.

In Peshawar, heavily armed bands of Taliban fighters have been intimidating people into observing their strict interpretation of Islamic law. In the last two months, they have suddenly tightened the noose on this city of three million people, one of Pakistan’s biggest, establishing bases in surrounding towns and, in daylight, abducting residents for large ransom. A New York Times report says they have turned up at courthouses in nearby towns, ordering judges to stay away. On Thursday, they stormed a women’s voting station on the city outskirts, and they are now regularly kidnapping people from the city’s bazaars and homes. There is pervasive fear that the city could fall to the Taleban at any moment. The provincial NWFP government in Peshawar, recently elected by a large majority, appears helpless against the Taliban.

The actions of NATO and Pakistani military in response to the Taleban's latest offensive appear to be too little, too late. An effective response to this seriously deteriorating situation requires a joint NATO-Pakistani strategy backed by strong coordinated action to strike a powerful blow against the Taliban on both sides of the border. This powerful action must then be followed by sustained pressure on both sides of the border to prevent Talebanization of the entire region with all its negative consequences for the people in Pakistan and Afghanistan and wider implications for the rest of the world.