The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie?
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| Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS |
Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months. Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so.
Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security? Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades? Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!
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| Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio |
There has been no official US reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it.
In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.
In January this year at an Islamabad event, Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms. |
| Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles |
Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense.
As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country.
Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region. Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.
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Iran should join Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, (Supreme) Leader's adviser says as Israeli threats intensify - Tehran Times
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/518450/Iran-should-join-Saudi-Pakistan-defense-pact-Leader-s-adviser
TEHRAN – A top military adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution has welcomed the newly signed defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, describing it as a positive step for regional security while underlining Iran’s own military readiness and commitment to deterrence.
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said in a televised interview on Saturday that the “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” signed in Riyadh between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should be regarded as constructive.
“We assess this treaty as positive. Pakistan has announced that other countries can join, and I recommend that Iran also participate,” Safavi said. “Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iraq could move toward a collective pact. Even though Saudi Arabia and Pakistan would not finalize such an agreement without U.S. approval, we should declare readiness as a regional power. This falls under our military diplomacy and foreign policy to take an active role in regional defense-security treaties.”
The Saudi-Pakistani deal, signed on Saturday, September 17, pledges that any act of aggression against either country will be considered an attack on both, requiring a joint response. The agreement, which the two sides described as “landmark,” aims to enhance mutual deterrence.
The signing came one day before an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha on Sunday, convened after deadly Israeli airstrikes on Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital. The strikes occurred amid ongoing Qatari mediation efforts to halt Israel’s war on Gaza.
Since the attacks, several countries, including Iran and Pakistan, have called for the creation of a regional coalition to defend Muslim nations against foreign-backed aggression. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also said that the assault on Qatar could not have happened without U.S. consent, urging Muslim countries to establish a NATO-style Islamic military alliance.
The strikes occurred despite the presence of a major American military base in Qatar, underscoring regional accusations that Washington allowed the assault to proceed.
Alongside support for regional cooperation, Iranian commanders reiterated their forces’ full preparedness to defend the country against any threat.
Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, praised the achievements of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its Aerospace Force, during Iran’s recent 12-day defensive campaign against U.S. and Israeli aggression.
“These victories reflect the faith, innovation, and resilience of our commanders and fighters. They demonstrate that the strategy of active deterrence and decisive, crushing response is effective and instructive,” Mousavi said during a Sunday meeting with Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour. He added that Iran is continuing to modernize its defense systems and that coordination between the Army and IRGC ensures both deterrence and the safeguarding of national independence.
Major General Amir Hatami, Commander-in-Chief of the Army, echoed the message, stressing that Iran constantly monitors adversary activities and will respond firmly to any miscalculation. Speaking at the closing ceremony of the Army’s 23rd joint cadet training program during Sacred Defense Week, Hatami reminded young officers of the Army’s mission to safeguard independence, territorial integrity, and the Islamic Republic.
“The enemy must know that, with the capacities, capabilities, and lofty ideals of the Iranian nation, we will inevitably emerge victorious. Our armed forces, supported by the people and guided by the wise leadership of the Commander-in-Chief, have always defeated aggression and will continue to do so,” Hatami said.
Pakistan ex Ambassador to US Husain Haqqani says that Trump and his isolationist MAGA base accept Pakistan-Saudi Defense Pact. They believe that anything that relieves the US of the responsibility to defend other countries is a good thing.
https://youtu.be/oncjDJn5hM8?si=7jsX849oOAgduqnX
Question that I have been wondering about is how will KSA react about India's next misadventure against Pakistan. We all know how Pakistan will react but KSA response is a mystery.
G. Ali
G. Ali: "Question that I have been wondering about is how will KSA react about India's next misadventure against Pakistan"
I think the Saudi contribution to the alliance will be primarily economic.
This year, the Pakistani defense budget is just $9 billion, a fraction of Saudi Arabia's military budget of $78 billion.
Greater Saudi investment in Pakistan will strengthen its economy and allow it to better fund its military.
Here's Google AI's answer to "will Saudi Arabia do joint defense production with Pakistan?"
AI Overview
Yes, Saudi Arabia will pursue joint defense production with Pakistan, as collaboration in the defense industry is a key component of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) that the two nations signed in September 2025.
Key details of the agreement regarding joint production:
Expansion of defense cooperation: The SMDA is a significant expansion of the decades-long military ties between the two countries.
Emphasis on technology and co-production: The pact specifically includes provisions for technology transfer and the co-production of military equipment. This collaboration is aimed at helping Saudi Arabia meet its defense-localization goals.
Areas of cooperation: Potential areas for joint industrial production include conventional platforms, secure communications, drones, and cyber capabilities.
Focus on defense industrial capacity: The agreement includes provisions for capacity building and training, which will support the development of a joint defense industry.
Economic factors: The partnership leverages Pakistan's extensive military experience and Saudi Arabia's financial strength to create a robust defense industrial ecosystem.
The agreement formalizes a deeper strategic alliance between the two countries, which is also seen as a response to evolving geopolitical dynamics and regional security concerns.
Will new regional security architectures replace us security guarantees? - Google Search
AI Overview
New regional security architectures are not entirely replacing US security guarantees but are challenging them and creating a more complex global security landscape. Driven by a perception of declining US reliability, countries in key regions are increasingly hedging their bets by diversifying their security partners and arrangements.
Key trends
Diversification beyond US influence
Nations that once depended heavily on the US are actively exploring and creating new security alliances to reduce reliance on Washington.
Middle East: A mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signed in September 2025, reflects a growing distrust of the US-led security architecture. For Riyadh, this pact complements, rather than replaces, its existing ties with Washington.
Indo-Pacific: Regional players like Japan, Australia, and India are deepening their defense ties, including through expanded joint exercises and intelligence sharing. South Korea is also exploring stronger connections with European powers.
Perception of fading US credibility
Reports indicate that the perceived credibility of US security commitments is eroding across different regions. This trend is fueled by a sense of US retrenchment and inconsistent foreign policy across different administrations.
In Asia, the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella is reportedly seen as eroding, encouraging countries to seek alternative security options.
In the Middle East, past US responses to regional attacks have led to partner frustrations and concerns over the inadequacy of US protection.
Emergence of alternative security frameworks
The emerging regional security architectures are often more fluid, less institutionalized, and feature overlapping and sometimes contradictory arrangements.
Competition: The development of competing security frameworks could lead to a less stable regional order, with nations hedging their bets in an uncertain environment.
Alternative models: New configurations could include bilateral accords, regional compacts, or new nuclear-sharing arrangements.
US response and implications
The rise of these architectures forces the US to adapt its strategy in an increasingly multipolar world.
Adjusting strategy: In regions like the Middle East, some argue the US should welcome certain regional defense pacts. This would allow it to focus on other strategic interests by ceding some control over the regional security architecture.
Potential for instability: While a more balanced regional security dynamic offers new opportunities for cooperation, the potential for accelerated nuclear proliferation and instability poses significant risks.
Shifting focus: The US is re-evaluating its global role, particularly its longstanding ambition of primacy. This is a move towards a world defined more by national interest and a balance of power, and less by US-led normative issues like democracy promotion.
Saudi Plans for Video-Game Hub Grow With $55 Billion EA Deal
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-plans-video-game-hub-184912136.html
(Prince) Mohammed (Bin Salman) , who chairs Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, has already invested some $30 billion in the industry, according to market researcher Aldora. That includes building up a stake in Nintendo Co. and acquiring the publisher of the hit game .
The kingdom also constructed a sprawling city that’s home to four different gaming arenas as part of that effort.
“Their overarching strategy is to bring jobs to Saudi Arabia — that’s a generational move over the next 20 years,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities Inc.
Electronic Arts, whose hits include the football franchise, the shooting series and the soccer game, “checks all those boxes,” Pachter said.
The Electronic Arts deal comes after the prince announced in May that he would boost investment in the US to $1 trillion in the coming years as part of a push to deepen trade ties between the kingdom and the world’s largest economy.
United States President Donald Trump said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is visiting the White House, is “very close” to agreeing on a deal to end the Gaza conflict. Addressing a press conference, Trump said this was a “big, big day”.
“The prime minister and the field marshal of Pakistan … they were with us right from the beginning. In fact, they just put out a statement that they fully believe in this pact,” Trump stated. “They back this 100 per cent.”
The US president also thanked Netanyahu for agreeing to the plan and for “trusting that if we work together, we can bring an end to the death and destruction” in the region.
Read more: https://www.dawn.com/news/1945467/
@G. Ali
"Question that I have been wondering about is how will KSA react about India's next misadventure against Pakistan. We all know how Pakistan will react but KSA response is a mystery."
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Nothing doing. Arabs are not that dump to believe that Pakistan is suddenly a trustworthy entity. Pakistan, thanks to its large military and nukes and access to minerals, has its place. But on a normal day, Saudis might be more interested to export oil to India's booming economy or to invest in India's businesses.
We are living in strange times and alliances are heavily compartmentalised.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia exported $181B of Crude Petroleum, making it the largest exporter of Crude Petroleum(out of 150) in the world. During the same year, Crude Petroleum were the most exported product (out of 1,148) in Saudi Arabia. In 2023, the main destinations of Saudi Arabia's Crude Petroleum exports were: China ($53.9B), Japan ($33.2B), India ($23.6B), United States ($10.8B), and Chinese Taipei ($8.14B).
The fastest growing markets for Crude Petroleum exports from Saudi Arabia between 2022 and 2023 were: Poland ($1.76B), Malaysia ($814M), and Pakistan ($333M).
https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/crude-petroleum/reporter/sau
MUMBAI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed near its all-time low on Monday as lingering foreign portfolio outflows and corporate dollar demand kept up pressure on the South Asian currency.
The rupee settled at 88.76 against the U.S. dollar, its weakest ever closing level and down slightly from its close at 88.7175 on Friday. The currency declined to an all-time low of 88.7975 last week.
After starting the session with a modest uptick, the local currency drifted lower through the session, averting a sharper decline due to dollar sales by multiple state-run banks, which traders said were likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-anchored-near-record-low-outflows-corporate-dollar-demand-2025-09-29/
Dear Sir
Thanks for this post, I hope you and entire team of this blog is doing well. Sir masha Allah lot of good and positive news are appearing about Pakistan and how it's diplomatic and foreign policies have changed within few months after the aggressive response that Pakistan Army and PAF gave to India in reaction to operation sin door that Indian airforce tried to carry out against Pakistan.
Now after defeating India and pushing it back, many countries in the world whether Muslim or western have realized that military and defence capa
bilities and potential is something that holds worth and importance.
Sir the question is don't you think such kind of defence deals that Pakistan is making with Saudi Arabia or with any Muslim country can only be good and beneficial for Pakistan if Pakistan focuses more on its economic stability and strength?
Unfortunately still the economy of Pakistan is still dependent on world Bank and on the the loans given by IMF and it is still dependent on the IMF bailouts?
Thanks
Israel may have underestimated Trump’s links with Qatar - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/03/qatar-trump-security-guarantee-israel/
The U.S. relationship with the small Persian Gulf country of Qatar entered new territory this week. By executive order, President Donald Trump on Monday offered Qatar security guarantees — including a commitment to quickly respond to acts of “foreign aggression” — a level of support usually reserved for Washington’s closest allies.
The text of the order is explicit. “The United States shall regard any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of the State of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States,” it reads. “In the event of such an attack, the United States shall take all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military — to defend the interests of the United States and of the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.”
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The executive order falls short of a NATO-style mutual defense agreement. Because it has not been ratified by the Senate, it is not binding. Future presidents will not be required to abide by it. Still, despite its limitations, the order grants Qatar assurances for which its Persian Gulf neighbors have long lobbied.
Over the years, Qatar has served quietly a central role in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. The country has hosted a Hamas political office since 2012, a move local officials say they made at the explicit request of the U.S., so the office so it could be used as a line of communication for negotiations.
Even before Qatar was mediating the Gaza ceasefire, it was a critical bridge between the U.S. and the Taliban during peace talks on Afghanistan and during the evacuation in 2021. Qatar has also helped secure prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. And in 2023, it was Qatar that mediated a prisoner swap between the U.S. and Iran.
The small country’s outsize role hasn’t always won it plaudits — including among American conservatives. “It is fair to say that Qatar plays both sides,” read an editorial in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that the country is “far from the typical profile of a state receiving U.S. guarantees.”
In India, upper caste constables are known to be very reluctant to apologize or do salute to lower caste officers (however rare they are...). This is what Trump forced Netanyahu to perform to Qatar Emir.
Pakistan courts US with pitch for new Arabian Sea port ( at Pasni for critical minerals export)
https://www.ft.com/content/9f7c7bf2-76ed-4eb6-bb9a-f628d05b0068
Late last month, Pakistan shipped a modest first consignment of fewer than two tonnes of critical and rare earth minerals to USSM that included copper, antimony and neodymium. The price of antimony has soared since Beijing imposed a ban on selling it to the US late last year.
Advisers to Pakistan’s military strongman Asim Munir have approached US officials with an offer to build and run a port on the Arabian Sea that could give Washington a foothold in one of the world’s most sensitive regions. The audacious plan, seen by the Financial Times, envisages American investors developing the seaside fishing town of Pasni as a terminal for access to Pakistan’s critical minerals. Pasni is just 100 miles from Iran and 70 miles from the Pakistani city of Gwadar, which has a China-backed port. The initiative, which is not official policy, reflects how Pakistani officials are exploring ways to capitalise on the sweeping geopolitical upheaval in South Asia of recent months.
The offer has been floated with some US officials, and was shared with Munir ahead of a meeting with Donald Trump in the White House late last month, according to two civilian advisers to the army chief who both asked not to be named. But a senior Trump administration official said the US president and his advisers had not discussed such a proposal.
The scheme is one of several ideas floated publicly and privately by Pakistani officials to maintain momentum with the Trump administration. They include engagement with a Trump-backed crypto venture, deepening co-operation against Afghanistan-based militant group Isis-K, endorsement of his Gaza peace plan and access to critical minerals.
Munir and Trump have forged what US and Pakistani diplomats are referring to as “a bromance” since the American president claimed credit in May for a ceasefire that ended the worst fighting between Pakistan and India in decades.
After two decades of warming ties with India, the US has over the summer publicly sparred with New Delhi. While India has rejected Trump’s claims of involvement in the ceasefire, Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have publicly thanked him and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
In return, Trump has lavished praise on Pakistan’s army chief. After their latest meeting last month, the White House released pictures of Munir and Sharif presenting the US leader with a display case of mineral samples.
“The whole narrative [of the US-Pakistan] relationship changed after the war,” said one of the advisers, who has been involved in back-channel contacts with the Trump circle for more than a year.
“It was very bad before then. We had not tended the relationship as we should have,” the adviser said. “In the last two decades the Indians occupied the space in the vacuum.”
The proposed port at Pasni would be linked to a new railway to transport minerals from Pakistan’s interior, the advisers said, in particular copper and antimony, a vital ingredient in batteries, fire-retardant and missiles.
A blueprint anticipated the port would cost up to $1.2bn with a proposed financing model that would be a mix of Pakistani federal and US-backed development finance. Advocates of the plan see it as a way of hedging the country’s position on the global stage as it seeks to balance a constellation of diplomatic ties with China, the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with which Islamabad signed a security pact last month.
“Pasni’s proximity to Iran and Central Asia enhances US options for trade and security . . . Engagement at Pasni would counterbalance Gwadar . . . and expand US influence in the Arabian Sea and Central Asia,” according to the blueprint.
“China’s Gwadar investments under the Belt and Road Initiative raise dual-use concerns,” it added, in an apparent allusion to US concerns Gwadar could serve as a Chinese naval base, a suggestion denied by Islamabad and Beijing.
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