The Battle of Bajaur

"Fighting is going on and to help us, the army sent some gunships which fired at the militants, killing several of them," tribal elder Malik Younus told Reuters. "We can't tolerate lawlessness in our land. Everyone has to obey our tribal rules and they can't make our land a hub of terrorism," Younus said.

As the battle of Bajaur rages with great intensity, the questions are being asked as to the effectiveness and the ultimate outcome of the war on terror within Pakistan's border. Is there a well-conceived strategy behind it? Or is it being done just to get the Americans off Pakistan's back? Is it purely a military effort? Is there Pakistani political will behind it? Are the people of FATA in particular, and of Pakistan in general, being persuaded to support it? Can this battle lead to ultimate victory over terrorism in the region?

As far as the people of Bajaur are concerned, Pakistan government has been trying to turn tribal communities there against the militants and government helicopters have dropped leaflets in different parts of Bajaur calling for support, residents have reported.

A full-scale war is unfolding in Bajaur agency of federally administered tribal areas (FATA) in Pakistan. Pakistani military, aided by local tribesmen and tribal elders unhappy with the militants, is fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda militants. There are reports that tribal militias are being formed to fight the Taliban. These militias have the support of the Pakistani military, Pakistani-appointed Political Agents(PAs) and the traditional tribal elders who have been losing their power and influence since the 1980s, first with the Afghan "Jihad" against the Soviets, and then the subsequent arrival of the Taliban and Pakistani military in their villages during his decade.

The war is beginning to take its toll on the ordinary people in FATA villages, which may affect support for it in the absence of any effective measures to alleviate their suffering. According to a New York Times report, an estimated 250,000 people have now fled the helicopters, jets, artillery and mortar fire of the Pakistani Army, and the assaults, intimidation and rough justice of the Taliban who have dug into Pakistan’s tribal areas. About 20,000 people are so desperate that they have crossed the border from the Bajaur tribal area to seek safety in Afghanistan. This is the first time in recorded history that refugees are pouring out of Pakistan into Afghanistan.

In addition to the growing refugee crisis, there are reports of rising anger and resentment in Pakistan as the dead, wounded and displaced show up right on their doorstep. It is hard to find reliable casualty figures. But the International Committee of the Red Cross has flown in a special surgical team from abroad to work alongside Pakistani doctors and help treat the wounded in two hospitals. This is now a war zone,” said Marco Succi, the spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross.

It seems that the Pakistani military is attempting to win the support of the traditional tribal elders as part of its campaign to rid FATA of the Taliban and Al Qaeda militants. While winning FATA elders' support is necessary, it will not be sufficient. In addition to serious efforts to alleviate the suffering of the innocent victims of war caught in the cross fire, what is really required is a Pakistani government-led campaign to persuade a substantial majority of Pakistanis to support its efforts against terrorists who have wreaked havoc on Pakistani streets by a series of deadly suicide bombings this year.

Pakistan's campaign must emphasize that it is fighting this war for its own existence as an independent and democratic nation free of terror. Pakistan government must demonstrate by its actions that it does care for its people; that it is not accepting dictation from Washington to wage its concerted political and military campaign. President Asif Zardari and other leaders need to communicate, honestly and frequently, with the people of Pakistan on the aims and progress of the campaign in FATA. There can be no victory in this war without winning the hearts and minds of a substantial majority of Pakistanis. In the meanwhile, the US political and military leaders must control their actions and rhetoric to avoid being seen as the instigators of Pakistan's war against terror.

Here's a video clip of the news coverage of the battle of Bajaur:

Radicals Target Pakistan Peace Jirgas

Fundamental Change in Tribal Order
The latest of a series of suicide bombings in Pakistan's north west frontier tribal belt targeted a meeting of the elders in Dara Adam Khel town. There were reports of 40 dead and scores injured. Traditionally, tribal leaders were held in high respect and their decisions were generally accepted by the tribal population in all matters. This attack further reinforces the belief that there is a fundamental shift taking place in the social and political order that existed for centuries.

The Origins of Change
During and after the Afghan war against the former Soviet Union in the 1980s, a large number new radical madrassahs have proliferated in Pakistan's tribal areas. Because of the power of these madrassahs, there seems to be a new dynamic affecting the traditional role and influence of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) elders. The radical young graduates of these madrassahs are not willing to accept the traditional role of the elders and their decisions in all matters. In addition to the latest attack in Dara Adam Khel, there have been many instances of tensions reported between the local tribal elders and the Taleban on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border.In December 2007, AP reported that suspected Islamic militants fatally shot eight tribal leaders involved in efforts to broker a cease-fire between security forces and insurgents in Pakistan's volatile northwest. Last year, there were also several reports of clashes between the tribal elders and the Al-Qaeda/Taleban operatives.

Will Democracy in Pakistan Cure Terrorism?
There have often been theories and claims made that democracy and talks with the tribals will bring peace in Pakistan. The facts seem to contradict such theories. Not only has there been progress in Pakistan toward democracy but the Musharraf administration has made serious efforts to engage with the tribal elders repeatedly to make deals that included withdrawing the Pakistani military from their areas. The results of such efforts have been an intensification of attacks in the tribal areas like Dara Adam Khel as well as the settled areas of Pakistan such as Swat valley.
The data from India and China also debunks the assumption that democracy is the answer to terrorism. According to one study conducted between 1976 and 2004 as quoted in Newsweek by Fareed Zakaria, there were over 400 terrorist incidents in democratic India and only 18 in authoritarian China. This could be because the terrorists find it easier to plot and carry out such attacks in open societies. In the last five years, Pakistan has been a semi-open society, something between authoritarian China and democratic India. Making it more democratic would not fundamentally alter the situation emanating from the north west frontier region. If anything, it could make it worse if the newly elected civilian coalition government completely abandons the use of force in favor of negotiations.

The Taleban & Al-Qaeda
The Taleban and Al-Qaeda have both become part of the tribal society in Pakistan and Afghanistan. They are a second power center after the tribal elders. And, I believe, there is an ongoing power struggle between the two. It is this power struggle that is largely responsible for the scuttling of several peace agreements that the Musharraf government made with the tribal elders in Waziristan region. It is this situation that makes it difficult for Pakistan to do what the US has done in Al-Anbar province in Iraq with the support of the tribal sheikhs there.

Ideas for Solution
The real solution has to be political and diplomatic in the long term. It's absolutely essential that the fundamental issues of poverty that attract people to the madrassahs are addressed. This will require massive spending on modern education, job creation, food, housing etc. The US and Saudi Arabia are quite capable of such spending, as they have demonstrated by their support during the Afghan resistance against the Soviets. Both abandoned the tribal belt after the defeat of the Soviet Union and left it to the Taleban and Al-Qaeda. In the meanwhile, both the Pakistani and the US governments must do everything possible to re-establish the role and influence of the tribal elders who want to make peace. At the same time, the war against the radicals challenging the authority of the elders must be conducted with sensitivity to avoid mass casualties of the ordinary folks in FATA. Indiscriminate bombing will not win any hearts and minds. It will only stoke the fires of revenge for a long time to come.

Are Pakistani Tribal Elders Losing Influence?

The Tribal Elders' Role
During the British rule of undivided India, the tribal elders in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan made deals with the British government that were generally adhered to and kept the peace in the autonomous tribal region. This system continued after Pakistan's independence for several decades.
However, as the madrassahs proliferated in Pakistan's tribal areas since the early 1980s, there seems to be a new dynamic affecting the traditional role and influence of the FATA elders. The radical young graduates of these madrassahs are not willing to accept the traditional role of the elders and their decisions in all matters. There have been many instances of tensions reported between the local tribal elders and the Taleban on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border.In December 2007, AP reported that suspected Islamic militants fatally shot eight tribal leaders involved in efforts to broker a cease-fire between security forces and insurgents in Pakistan's volatile northwest. Last year, there were also several reports of clashes between the tribal elders and the Al-Qaeda operatives.

Madrassahs
Most of these madrassahs are boarding schools that provide free food, clothing, housing and education to the mostly poor kids in FATA, the Frontier and Baluchistan provinces. So, the basic reason for these institutions to exist is really the overwhelming needs for education and social services that the Government of Pakistan is unable to fulfill. The reason these institutions proliferated since the 1980s has its roots in the massive US/Saudi backing of the Afghan resistance against the Soviet invasion. The incentive for the US was to recruit and prepare fighters for "Jihad" in Afghanistan against the Russians. A key part of the education at these madrassahs included indoctrination and military training of the students which continues to this day. It is for this reason that the US now considers these institutions as purveyors of terrorist training. The changes in Pakistan's tribal areas set in motion during the 1980s to fight the Soviets are still affecting the entire South Asian region including Afghanistan, the Middle East and the world. Both Al-Qaeda and the Taleban movements have their roots in the Afghan war and the US support of it against the Soviet Union.

The Taleban & Al-Qaeda
The Taleban and Al-Qaeda have both become part of the tribal society in Pakistan and Afghanistan. They are a second power center after the tribal elders. And, I believe, there is an ongoing power struggle between them. It is this power struggle that is largely responsible for the scuttling of several peace agreements that the Musharraf government made with the tribal elders in Waziristan region. It is this situation that makes it difficult for Pakistan to do what the US has done in Al-Anbar province in Iraq with the support of the tribal sheikhs there.

Ideas for Solution
The real solution has to be political and diplomatic in the long term. It's absolutely essential that the fundamental issues of poverty that attract people to the madrassahs are addressed. This will require massive spending over a relatively short period of time. The US and Saudi Arabia are quite capable of such spending, as they have demonstrated during the Afghan resistance against the Soviets. In the meanwhile, both the Pakistani and the US governments must do everything possible to re-establish the role and influence of the tribal elders that want to make peace. At the same time, the war against the radicals challenging the authority of the elders must be conducted to avoid mass casualties of the ordinary folks in FATA. Indiscriminate bombing will not win any hearts and minds. It will only stoke the fires of revenge for a long time to come.