IRI Pakistan Poll Shows Strong Public Approval For PTI Government

A combined 57% of respondents say that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is doing either a “very good job” (17%) or a “good job” (40%) so far, according to a nationwide poll conducted by International Republican Institute (IRI). It represents the first independent public opinion poll in Pakistan on PTI's popularity since the party won the 2018 general elections.  Overwhelming majority  (84%) say that the election results are either “very accurate” (46%) or “somewhat accurate” (38%). A combined 83% believe that the election was either “completely free and fair” (50%) or “mostly free and fair” (33%).

IRI Pakistan Poll Results. Source: IRI

Imran Khan's Strong Approval:

Majority of Pakistanis (57%) believe Prime Minister Imran Khan's government is doing either a “very good job” (17%) or a “good job” (40%) so far, according to an IRI survey conducted on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research. Data was collected between November 1 and November 22, 2018 through in-home, in-person interviews. The sample consisted of 3,991 respondents aged 18 and older and is representative of voting-age adults nationally. The margin of error was 1.6%.

A combined 56% approve of the PTI government. A plurality of respondents (40%) said that they are willing to give the government time to deliver on campaign promises.

“The survey suggests that the government’s performance will be judged primarily on its ability to address pressing economic concerns,” said Johanna Kao. Inflation was singled out as the most important problem in Pakistan (39%), followed by poverty (18%) and unemployment (15%).  Nearly 77% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 see the lack of jobs as the biggest challenge facing young people in Pakistan.

IRI Pakistan Poll Results. Source: IRI

Confidence in 2018 Election Results:

The poll also indicates high levels of confidence in the results of the July 2018 national elections. A clear majority (84%) say that the election results are either “very accurate” (46%) or “somewhat accurate” (38%). A combined 83% believe that the election was either “completely free and fair” (50%) or “mostly free and fair” (33%).

Summary:

The first independent poll conducted by an international organization shows that the majority (84%) of Pakistanis have confidence in the 2018 elections that resulted in PTI's victory and put Prime Minister Imran Khan in the nation's top elected office. Majority (57%) say that the new government is doing either a “very good job” (17%) or a “good job” (40%) so far.

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What If Pakistan Opinion Polls Are Wrong ?

A recent International Republican Institutes's public opinion poll in Pakistan has made big headlines. The results of this poll do not augur well for President Musharraf and his allies in PML-Q. While the science behind such polls is sound, there are limitations as shown recently in the US primaries. Similar polls conducted at the start of the primaries did not see the Obama phenomenon and wrote off John McCain. So the question is: What if the polls are wrong? When polls go wrong in the US, most Americans just recognize the limitations of the methodology and move on. But, would that be the case in Pakistan? Would this poll not give the ammunition to those politicians and parties who are already threatening violence if they do not win? I think these questions are worth pondering, especially if the consequences of the inaccurate poll result in significant loss of life in an already troubled nation.

Just to try and prepare the people for such as possibility, let me suggest that we approach the IRI and other polls like it with caution. Here are some of the reasons why:

1. The sample size is small and not truly random. The sample is biased by those participants willing to respond who generally happen to be more interested AND more available. I personally rarely participate in these polls because the pollsters usually call when I am about to start dinner at about 7:30PM. They usually do not call back.
2. People do not always tell the truth. They say one thing and do another. The most famous case of this kind happened in California gubernatorial elections in 1982, when many white voters said they would vote for Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles who happened to be black but in fact voted for George Deukmejian, the white candidate for governor. This is now known as "Bradley Effect".
3. The national poll does not take into account regional, ethnic and class differences, the level of enthusiasm (likely voters) and multi-way races resulting in skewed seat allocation on constituency by constituency basis.
4. The way the questions are framed can change the outcome in significant ways. Asking someone "if you approve of XYZ?" is not the same as "Would you considering voting for XYZ? " As seen in this IRI survey, these two questions produced two different answers. While only 15% of respondents said they approve of Musharraf, 29% of respondents said they would vote for the coalition supporting Musharraf.

Let us all exercise caution in accepting these poll results as truly representative of the real vote scheduled for February 18. If these polls were representative of the general elections, there would be no need for holding large scale general elections in Pakistan or elsewhere.