Post-Election Horse-trading In Pakistan

The Pakistan People's Party has emerged as the largest single party with 87 seats, Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League as the second largest with 66 seats, and pro-Musharraf PML(Q) third at 40 seats, with votes counted in 258 out of 272 constituencies. Now that a clear picture is emerging of the relative strengths of various parties in Pakistan's incoming parliament, there is a lot of posturing going on in front of the TV cameras by the key players. Some of it is for public consumption, but most of it is to establish negotiating positions by each party leader.
While what you see on the public stage is interesting, the rumor mill has it that it is the action behind the scenes that will ultimately determine the future of President Musharraf, Pakistan's role in the "war on terror" and the shape of the new government. It's not really clear how this will play out. It would be a mistake to assume President Musharraf's position is weak. No single party has enough seats to confront him alone. It depends on how Pervez Musharraf and Asif Zardari, the leader of PPP, play their cards and the US role in it. Mr. Nawaz Sharif, the leader of PML with the second largest number of seats, is disliked intensely by Musharraf, Zardari and the US. Let's just wait and see what happens. I wouldn't completely rule out
the PPP joining forces with pro-Musharraf parties including MQM (19 seats) and PML(Q) to edge Nawaz Sharif out. Together, the three parties can buy out independents. Asif Zardari fears restoration of independent judiciary (particularly Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry) as much as Musharraf. Especially if it jeopardizes the National Reconciliation Ordnance that gave blanket amnesty to Benazir Bhutto, Asif Zardari and key members of the Pakistan Peoples Party.
I think this horse-trading is going to be interesting. We can expect a clear picture of the new government composition to emerge within a few days.