Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Pak Taliban Target Right-Wing Media & Politicians

Qazi Husain Ahmed, a leading Islamist politician, and Hamid Mir, a GeoTV anchor and champion of right-wing causes, have recently been targeted by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) assassins.

Fortunately, both men escaped unhurt. The TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan has claimed responsibility for the suicide attack on Qazi Husain in FATA and for planting a bomb under Mir's car in Islamabad.

In spite of TTP's claim of responsibility, JI's former chief Qazi Husain Ahmed has blamed the US for the suicide bombing attempt by a female bomber in Mohmand Agency in FATA, the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan .

Pakistan's newspaper The News reported that Qazi was targeted by the TTP "because of his April 2012 interview wherein he had described the Afghan Taliban’s resistance against the US-led Coalition Forces in Afghanistan as 'true jehad' and that of the Pakistani Taliban in Pakistan as 'un-Islamic' ".

In a video released earlier by the TTP, its chief Hakimullah Mehsud criticized Qazi Husain Ahmed for making alliances with Shia leaders. And then he said to Qazi Husain Ahmed: “There was a time when educated people, students, ulema and others used to respect you a lot. But I can no longer trust you, Qazi sahib. Why are you calling our battle “fasaad” instead of jehad?”

Accepting responsibility for the assassination attempt on Hamid Mir, the TTP spokesman Ehsan told AFP: “Life and death is in the hands of Allah. Allah saved his life but we will make a similar attempt again". Ehsan further said that “Hamid Mir earlier shot into prominence for working in the interest of Islam and Muslims. We targeted him because now he is working against Islam and Muslims."

These latest assassination attempts are a clear indication of the fact that the Taliban have now turned into Frankenstein monsters bent upon destroying the very people who have created or fostered them for decades.

While Qazi Husain publicly insists on blaming the Americans, he and other Islamists must be very worried in private because these latest episodes point to a deep divide within their ranks. Both moderates and radicals among Islamists share a fairly common base of support. But a growing chasm among them has manifested itself across the Islamic world for sometime with the radical salfis challenging the more moderate and pragmatic Islamists in Egypt, Gaza, Libya, Tunisia, Pakistan and elsewhere.

As the Islamists in Pakistan face this deepening crisis in their ranks and feel threatened by the extremists, there is a window of opportunity for mainstream politicians to forge a new national consensus with the moderate Islamists to deal with the militant Taliban threat. What is needed is a two-pronged strategy combining peaceful persuasion and judicious use of force as follows:

1. A broad-based national campaign to educate the people about the serious threat posed by the Taliban militants and various sectarian outfits which are ripping the nation apart. Such a campaign requires broad support by the national media as well as all the political parties which believe in Pakistan's constitution, democratic institutions and political process.

2. Use national consensus to back selective use of military force in FATA and elsewhere to quell militants who refuse to lay down their weapons.

Here's a video discussion of the subject which I recently participated in:

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Pakistan Offers Higher Economic Mobility Than US, China

A 2012 study of 22 nations conducted by Prof Miles Corak for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has found income heritability to be greater in the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, China and 5 other countries than in Pakistan.

The study's findings, presented by the author in testimony to the US Senate Finance Committee on July 6, 2012, rely on the computation of "inter-generational earnings elasticity" which the author explains as follows:

"(It) is the percentage difference in earnings in the child’s generation associated with the percentage difference in the parental generation. For example, an intergenerational elasticity in earnings of 0.6 tells us that if one father makes 100% more than another then the son of the high income father will, as an adult, earn 60% more than the son of the relatively lower income father. An elasticity of 0.2 says this 100% difference between the fathers would only lead to a 20% difference between the sons. A lower elasticity means a society with more mobility."

Intergenerational Mobility in Pakistan:

Corak calculates that the intergenerational earnings elasticity in Pakistan is 0.46, the same as in Switzerland. It means that a difference of 100% between the incomes of a rich father and a poor father is reduced to 46% difference between their sons' incomes. Among the 22 countries studied, Peru, China and Brazil have the lowest economic mobility with inter-generational elasticity of 0.67, 0.60 and 0.58 respectively. The highest economic mobility is offered by Denmark (0.15), Norway (0.17) and Finland (0.18).

The author also looked at Gini coefficient of each country and found reasonably good correlation between Gini and intergenerational income elasticity.

In addition to Corak, there are other reports which confirm that Pakistan has continued to offer significant upward economic and social mobility to its citizens over the last two decades. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report titled "Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And Future".

More evidence of upward mobility is offered by recent Euromonitor market research indicating that Pakistanis are seeing rising disposable incomes. It says that there were 1.8 million Pakistani households (7.55% of all households) and 7.9 million Indian households (3.61% of all households) in 2009 with disposable incomes of $10,001 or more. This translates into 282% increase (vs 232% in India) from 1995-2009 in households with disposable incomes of $10,001 or more. Consumer spending in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to Bloomberg.

Mobility Drivers:

The study identified three key drivers of inter-generational mobility: Family, Labor Market and State.

The biggest difference the family makes is in terms of education and training of the children. Growing labor market is important for the availability of better paying jobs, and the state matters because its policies influence access to education and growth of economic opportunities. For Pakistanis, the weakest link here has been the state which has failed to adequately fund education and facilitate economic growth through infrastructure investments. The private sector, the civil society and the international community have, however, stepped in to at least partially compensate for some of the most serious shortcomings of the state.

Education:

Pakistani parents are taking education more and more seriously and enrolling their children at all levels. According to Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jhong-Wa Lee, Pakistan has been increasing enrollment of students in schools at a faster rate since 1990 than India. In 1990, there were 66.2% of Pakistanis vs 51.6% of Indians age 15 and above who had no schooling. In 2000, there were 60.2% Pakistanis vs 43% Indians with no schooling. In 2010, Pakistan reduced it to 38% vs India's 32.7%.

As of 2010, there are 380 (vs 327 Indians) out of every 1000 Pakistanis age 15 and above who have never had any formal schooling. Of the remaining 620 (vs 673 Indians) who enrolled in school, 22 (vs 20 Indians) dropped out before finishing primary school, and the remaining 598 (vs 653 Indians) completed it. There are 401 (vs 465 Indians) out of every 1000 Pakistanis who made it to secondary school. 290 (vs 69 Indians) completed secondary school while 111 (vs. 394 Indians) dropped out. Only 55 (vs 58 Indians) made it to college out of which 39 (vs 31 Indians) graduated with a degree.

Labor Market:

Pakistan's employment growth has been the highest in South Asia region since 2000, followed by Nepal, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka in that order, according to a recent World Bank report titled "More and Better Jobs in South Asia".

Total employment in South Asia (excluding Afghanistan and Bhutan) rose from 473 million in 2000 to 568 million in 2010, creating an average of just under 800,000 new jobs a month. In all countries except Maldives and Sri Lanka, the largest share of the employed are the low‐end self-employed.

The report says that nearly a third of workers in India and a fifth of workers in Bangladesh and Pakistan are casual laborers. Regular wage and salaried workers represent a fifth or less of total employment.

Analysis of the labor productivity data indicates that growth in TFP (total factor productivity) made a larger relative contribution to the growth of aggregate labor productivity in South Asia during 1980–2008 than did physical and human capital accumulation. In fact, the contribution of TFP growth was higher than in the high‐performing East Asian economies excluding China.

Summary:

The experience of OECD nations shows that construction of a large and vibrant middle class is an absolutely essential pre-requisite for a prosperous and democratic society. In spite of all of its current difficulties, Pakistan's middle class is growing as evident from data coming from a variety of sources ranging from ADB and the World Bank to University researchers and Euromonitor consumer research firm. More enlightened leadership in Islamabad can help accelerate this process by focusing greater attention to raising more revenue and increasing public investment in education, health care and infrastructure.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Economic Mobility Across Generations

Upward Social and Economic Mobility in Pakistan

Pakistan GDP Grossly Underestimated, Shares Highly Undervalued

Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

Precise Estimates of Pakistan's Informal Economy

Pak Consumer Boom Fuels Underground Economy

Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan's Tax Evasion Fosters Aid Dependence

Poll Finds Pakistanis Happier Than Neighbors

Pakistan's Rural Economy Booming

Pakistan Car Sales Up 61%

Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers

Land For Landless Women in Pakistan

Pakistan's Circular Debt and Load-shedding

Hypermart Pakistan

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Confident Pak Judiciary Challenges Military's Top Brass

Buoyed by unprecedented success against the top members of the executive branch, the men in robes are now boldly taking on Pakistani military's top brass--both past and present.

Earlier this year, Pakistan Supreme Court removed a democratically elected prime minister who had the support of two-thirds majority in Pakistan's parliament. The top judges then forced the current prime minister to write a letter to Swiss authorities to re-open corruption cases against several members of the ruling party as well as the head of state President sif Ali Zardari himself.

More recently, the Islamabad High Court judges have accepted a petition from a member of the Rawalpindi Bar Association challenging the three year extension granted in 2010 to Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaque Parvez Kayani by former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. In addition, a Supreme Court bench headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry has ordered the government to act against a former Chief of Army staff (COAS) General Aslam Baig and a former Director of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt. General Asad Durrani in what is now known as the Asghar Khan case.

All of these events appear to be part of a huge power play by the top judges to assert themselves in competition with other institutions of government. In fact, Justice Chaudhry has stated a very ambitious agenda when he said that he sees his court as the “final arbiter and protector of Constitution”, and he seems to be in a hurry to get there. This statement by the Chief Justice was a pointed rejection of General Kayani's earlier statement that said: “No individual or institution has the monopoly to decide what is right or wrong in defining the ultimate national interest.”

Rawalpindi Bar Association has jumped in the middle of this power struggle with a strong resolution attacking General Kayani personally by raising questions about his brother's work as a military contractor. While smaller than Karachi and Lahore Bars, the Rawalpindi Bar is believed to be close to senior judges. It is suspected to have far right connections with radical organizations like Hizb-ut-Tahrir which has been actively seeking to recruit sympathizers and supporters in Pakistani military.

It's not uncommon for various institutions to seek greater power in a transition period before a healthy and workable balance is achieved. Almost every democracy has seen such an evolution.

The great danger here is that, if any one institution overplays its hand, there could be uncontrolled chaos and a power vacuum. Such power vacuum could then be exploited by militant groups which would not hesitate to seize power and put an abrupt end to the whole democratic experiment in Pakistan. Such a development will elicit a strong response from the international community including the US and China. And it will almost certainly scuttle any hope of democracy in Pakistan for a very long time.

Let's hope good sense prevails to help maintain gradual but sustainable progress toward a democratic order in which all institutions can learn to co-exist and serve the best interest of the people of Pakistan.

Here's a video clip of a discussion I recently joined on this subject:

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Pakistan's GDP Grossly Underestimated, Stocks Highly Undervalued

Even with the run-up (in KSE-100), Andrew Brudenell, manager of the HSBC Frontier Markets fund (HSFAX) in London, says Pakistan is one of the cheapest markets he follows, at about seven times earnings. He notes that earnings growth has kept pace with the market. The firms, he adds, are typically cash-rich, boast strong return on equity levels in the 20% range, and pay good dividends. In Pakistan, the informal, cash-based economy for goods and services is larger than the formal economy. Barron's, November 17, 2012

Growing gap between dismal official economic statistics and consumption boom coupled with strong corporate profits in Pakistan is a challenge for many analysts around the world. Most believe that Pakistan's GDP is, in fact, much larger and growing faster than the government data indicates.

Informal Economy Estimates:

M. Ali Kemal and Ahmed Waqar Qasim, economists at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), have published their research on estimates of the size of Pakistan's informal or underground economy.

Kemal and Qasim explore several published different approaches for sizing Pakistan's underground economy and settle on a combination of PSLM (Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement) consumption data and mis-invoicing of exports and imports to conclude that the country's "informal economy was 91% of the formal economy in 2007-08". Here are the figures offered by the authors for 2007-8:

1) Formal Economy: Rs. 10,242 billion= $170 billion (using Rs.60 to a US dollar)
2) Informal Economy: Rs. 9,365 billion = $156 billion
3) Total Economy (Sum of 1 & 2): Rs. 19,608 billion = $326 billion

Assuming that the ratio of formal and informal economy remained the same in 2011-12, here are the figures for Pakistan's total economy as of the end of last fiscal year which ended in June, 2012 :

1) Formal Economy: $210 billion
2) Informal Economy: $191 billion
3) Total Economy: $401 billion

Hypermart Lahore

Naween Mangi of Businessweek in her piece titled "The Secret Strength of Pakistan's Economy" described how Pakistan's informal cash-based economy evades government's radar, illustrating it with the story of a tire repair shop owner Muhammad Nasir. Nasir steals water and electricity from utility companies, receives cash from his customers in return for his services and issues no receipts, pays cash for his cable TV connection, and pays off corrupt police and utility officials and local politicians instead of paying utility bills and taxes.

Karachi Stock Market:

Comparing Karachi and Mumbai Share Indexes

A string of strong earnings announcements by Karachi Stock Exchange listed companies and the Central Bank's 1.5% rate cut have helped the KSE-100 index exceed 16,000 level, a gain of 42.1% (33.2% in US dollar terms) year to date. In spite of this run-up in KSE-100, Andrew Brudenell, manager of the HSBC Frontier Markets fund (HSFAX) in London, remains bullish on Pakistani equities, according to Barron's. Pakistan is one of the cheapest markets he follows, at about seven times earnings. He notes that earnings growth has kept pace with the market. The firms, he adds, are typically cash-rich, boast strong return on equity levels in the 20% range, and pay good dividends.

Conclusion:

While Pakistan's public finances remain shaky, it appears that the country's economy is in fact healthier than what the official figures show. It also seems that the national debt is much less of a problem given the debt-to-GDP ratio of just 30% when informal economy is fully comprehended. Even a small but serious effort to collect more taxes can make a big dent in budget deficits. My hope is that increasing share of the informal economy will become documented with the rising use of technology. Bringing a small slice of it in the tax net will make a significant positive difference for public finances in the coming years.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

Precise Estimates of Pakistan's Informal Economy

Pak Consumer Boom Fuels Underground Economy

Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan's Tax Evasion Fosters Aid Dependence

Poll Finds Pakistanis Happier Than Neighbors

Pakistan's Rural Economy Booming

Pakistan Car Sales Up 61%

Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers

Land For Landless Women in Pakistan

Pakistan's Circular Debt and Load-shedding

Hypermart Pakistan

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Impact of Obama's Re-election on Pak-US Ties

Polls indicate that Mitt Romney would be elected US president on Nov 6, 2012 if Israelis and Pakistanis had their way. Most foreign policy analysts, however, believe that such an outcome would not result in any fundamental US policy shift for the two disgruntled nations.

Why Romney?

To understand why Pakistanis expressed a preference for Romney over President Barrack Obama, let us review some of the ostensible reasons for it:

1. Most Pakistanis hoped that Romney would stop CIA-operated drone attacks in FATA. The facts is that Romney, in response to a question during the presidential debate on foreign policy, said as follows: “I believe we should use any and all means necessary to take out people who pose a threat to us and our friends around the world. And it’s widely reported that drones are being used in drone strikes, and I support that and entirely.”

2. There is a common perception among Pakistanis that Republicans in the White House are better for them. This perception is based on cold-war era policies that brought significant US aid to Pakistan during early 1960s under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, and 1980s under President Ronald Reagan and 2000s under President George W. Bush.

This perception is not valid now because President Obama, a Democrat, has tripled US aid to Pakistan from $738 million in 2008 to $2.108 billion in 2012.

US Troops Withdrawal:

Now that President Obama has been re-elected, it is almost certain that US will withdraw most of its troops by 2014 as planned.

Beyond 2014, all the signs indicate that the US will continue to be engaged militarily, economically and diplomatically in the region. Part of the motivation will be to try and deal with potential threats to the American homeland from possible resurgence of Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But the other part is the more ambitious effort to maintain US economic and diplomatic power and influence in Asia.

The US military involvement will be mostly in the form of drones and special operations. It is quite possible that the Americans may increase the frequency and intensity of CIA-operated drone attacks and joint special operations (JSOC).

President Kennedy Receiving President Ayub at Andrews AFB

L to R: Ayub Khan, Nasim Aurangzeb, Jackie Kennedy, John F. Kennedy

New Great Game:

On the diplomatic front, the US will maintain close ties with Pakistan's political, military and intelligence establishment regardless of who holds power after the upcoming elections in 2013. Rhetoric on either side may change from time to time but the US aid flow and Pakistani cooperation will not. As Romney said and Obama seemed to agree during the foreign policy debate that “it’s not time to divorce a nation on Earth that has 100 nuclear weapons and is on the way to double that at some point."

In addition to the continuing US pressure to act in FATA, Pakistan is also being pressed by its other friend China to crack down on the Taliban because the Chinese also feel threatened by the Pakistan-based Taliban militants for their alleged support and sheltering of Chinese Uighur Muslim militants who are waging war against the Chinese government in Xinjiang province.

On the economic front, both China and the United States have significant long-term interests in Pakistan, as does Russia, because of its strategic location as a transit country. Some see the growing US-China competition in Central Asia as the start of a New Great Game for power and influence in the Asian continent. This Game will present Pakistan with its greatest challenge and the greatest opportunity in the 21st century.

The Chinese see the value of access to the Arabian sea as the shortest route for trade in and out of Western China to develop and stabilize its restive Xinijiang province. A number of Chinese companies are working on building roads such as the Karakoram Highway and other infrastructure for this purpose.

US Pivot to Asia:

Re-elected President Obama is making his first major foreign trip to ASEAN summit in Cambodia. As part of President Obama's "pivot to Asia" to check China's rise, the Americans have a strong competing interest in creating a new silk route in Asia that bypasses China. Americans envision such land route extending from resource rich Stans in Central Asia to resource hungry South Asia and Southeast Asia region via Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The expected energy flow for energy-hungry Pakistan and the potential annual transit fees worth billions of dollars from this trade route are part of the US sponsored incentives for Pakistan to help stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. The first example of this effort is the American push for TAPI--Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.

Summary:

There are two important messages for Islamabad coming from Washington and Beijing: 1) Both US and China have a common interest in defeating the militants operating from Pakistan's FATA region even as the two great powers compete in a high-stakes game to dominate Asia. 2) Obama will follow through on his plans to withdraw ground troops from Afghanistan by 2014 but still continue to be engaged there for a variety of short-term and long-term goals in Central and South Asia and the larger Asian continent.

Here's a recent video discussion on the subject in which I participated:

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Credit Suisse Bullish on Pakistan Cement Sector

Renewed construction boom in Pakistan has helped the nation's cement producers significantly increase their sales and profits. Year-over-year, income at Lucky Cement, Pakistan's largest producer of building materials, is up 33% while DG Khan Cement, second largest cement company, has quadrupled its profits.

Source: Credit Suisse Report on Pakistan Cement Sector

Cement production, an important barometer of national economic activity, was up 8% in 2011-12, according to a research report compiled by a Credit Suisse analyst.

CS analyst Farhan Rizvi says in his report that "higher PSDP (Public Sector Development Program) spending has led to a resurgence in domestic cement demand in FY12 (+8%) and with increased PSDP allocation for FY13 (+19%) and General Elections due in Feb-Mar 2013, domestic demand is likely to remain robust over the next six-nine months".

Nagan Chowrangi Interchange in Karachi

Ongoing public sector projects include new large and small dams, irrigation canals, power plants, highways, flyovers, airports, seaports, etc. Most of these were already in the pipeline when the PPP government assumed control in 2008. Recent pre-election increases in PSDP funding allowed work to resume on these projects in 2011-12.

In addition to public sector infrastructure projects, there is a lot of privately funded real estate development activity visible in all major cities of the country. Big real estate developers like Bahria Town and Habib Construction are developing both commercial and housing projects in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. Other cities like Faisalabad, Hyderabad, Larkana, Multan, Mirpur, Peshawar and Quetta are also seeing new housing communities, golf courses, hotels, office complexes, restaurants, shopping malls, etc.

Artist's Rendering of Sheraton Islamabad Golf City Resort

Credit Suisse is bullish on Pakistan's cement sector in particular and Pakistani shares in general.

CS analyst Farhan Rizvi has initiated coverage with "an OVERWEIGHT stance, as we believe compelling valuations, improving domestic demand outlook, better pricing power and easing cost pressures make the sector an attractive investment proposition. Despite better growth prospects (3-year CAGR of 17% over FY12-15E) and improving margins, the sector trades at an attractive FY13E EV/EBITDA of 3.8x, 49% discount to the historical average multiple of 7.4x. Moreover, FY13E EV/tonne of US$74 is approximately 29% discount to historical average EV/tonne of US$104 and 50% discount to the region".

Another CS analyst Farrukh Khan, based in Credit Suisse’ Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore,says in his research report that “liquidity in 2012 has been concentrated in stocks offering positive earnings surprises (e.g., United Bank, Lucky Cement, DG Khan Cement and Bank Alfalah), enabling them to be strong outperformers. With further improvements in liquidity, we expect a broad-based price discovery to take hold in attractively valued oil and fertilizer stocks as well.”

A string of strong earnings announcements by Karachi Stock Exchange listed companies and the Central Bank's 1.5% rate cut have already helped the KSE-100 index gain 32% in US dollar terms year to date.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Strong Earnings Propel KSE-100 to 4 Year High

Development in Pakistan-Defence.pk

Credit Suisse on Pakistan Cement Sector

Credit Suisse Research Report on Pakistan Equities

Tax Evasion Fosters Aid Dependence

Poll Finds Pakistanis Happier Than Neighbors

Pakistan's Rural Economy Booming

Pakistan Car Sales Up 61%

Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers

Land For Landless Women in Pakistan

Monday, October 29, 2012

Imran Khan Draws 500 Pakistani-Americans in Silicon Valley

"We will rid the country of corruption within the first 90 days in office...I condemned the attack on Malala within 48 hours and was the first to visit her in the hospital...Taliban have killed hundreds of ANP workers...If I condemn the Taliban, they'll kill my workers too." PTI Chief Imran Khan in San Jose, CA. Oct 28, 2012

There were many contradictions in PTI chief Imran Khan's San Jose speech that attracted about 500 Pakistani-Americans. The attendees were quite enthusiastic in their welcome of the national cricket hero who has turned to politics with a strong anti-corruption platform. Imran was accompanied by PTI leader Fauzia Kasuri and sufi rock singer- songwriter Salman Ahmad of Junoon fame.

When Imran Khan arrived, the fundraiser-dinner quickly turned into an urban middle class rally reminiscent of the PTI events in major Pakistani cities like Lahore and Karachi. The banquet hall at Dolce Hayes Mansion came alive with slogans of "Pakistan Zindanad" and "Imran Khan Zindabad" following Pakistan's national anthem played by Salman Ahmad.

The well-attended Silicon Valley event was a confirmation of the fact that PTI is essentially an urban middle class phenomenon drawing support from people who are looking for new leadership to rid the country of corruption and misrule by Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the two major political parties which have dominated Pakistani politics since 1980s.

Anti-Corruption, being the key theme of Imran's speeches, elicited a number of questions from the audience. One questioner suggested that "99% of the people are involved in some form of corruption" and asked how would Imran Khan end it? Imran responded by citing low government salaries as the main cause. He said bureaucrats like his father were not corrupt because their monthly salary was large enough to buy a car back in 1950s. He did not elaborate as to how he would raise government employee salaries to such lofty levels in Pakistan as part of his plan to end corruption in 90 days, nor did he elaborate on the role of the elite colonial-era civil service to control the population rather than serve the people.

Continuing on the theme of low salaries, Imran Khan mentioned that one of his brilliant classmates at Aitcheson College became a top scientist but had such "low income that he could not afford to send his children to Aitcheson College". After hearing this answer, the first thought that ran through my mind was to compare Imran Khan with the Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney who is being portrayed as "out of touch" and "disconnected" from the ordinary folks.

A woman questioner asked him how he would "end corruption in 90 days when it takes 9 months to make a baby?" In response, Imran said "I am not talking about making babies". Then he proceeded to cite an example of an "honest police superintendent" in some small town near Dera Ismail Khan who ended all crime within 90 days. He also saw the chief minister of the Indian state of Bihar as an inspiration for ending corruption and achieving double-digit economic growth.

Addressing a question about how he intends to deal with the Taliban, Imran blamed it on the US presence in the region and the use of drones. He said dialog is the way to end it. He also said that the number of "irreconcilable" Taliban militants was very small and could be defeated by a "small military military operation" by Pakistan Army after the US exit from the region.

Responding to a question about PTI's election strategy, Imran Khan said he did not believe in "constituency politics" and would not give his party tickets based on the notions of electability. Instead, he is counting on a PTI landslide victory similar to the 1970 elections in which Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's PPP won big in West Pakistan.

After Imran's speech, I was asked by some PTI-USA officers about what I thought of it. I told them that I felt Imran was confused when he said he condemned the Taliban after the Malala shooting but then proceeded to ask "who will protect my workers if I condemn the Taliban". Three of the PTI officers, including Dr. Nasrullah Khan, rose to defend their leader's remarks on the Taliban by asking me "who do you think attacked Malala?" When I said the TTP has claimed responsibility for it, they claimed it was "someone other than the Taliban". As the discussion continued, Dr. Nasrullah Khan pulled up a picture of injured Malala on his iPhone and said "I am a cardiologist and I have seen gun-shot victims" and the nature of Malala's head injury shows the "attack was staged".

It seems that Dr. Nasrullah Khan and his fellow PTI members I met are discounting the fact that the Taliban have a long track record in both Afghanistan and Pakistan of attacking anyone, regardless of age and gender, who disagrees with their goals or tactics. They have a record of using extreme violence to silence those who dare to criticize them.

My assessment of Imran Khan after yesterday's event is that he has very enthusiastic support among young urban middle class Pakistanis who are probably participating in the political process for the first time in Pakistan's history. This augurs well for the country in the long run. However, PTI's chances of emerging with a majority of seats in Pakistani parliament in 2013 elections appear remote.

I also believe that Imran Khan is well-meaning but he appears to be naive, even disconnected from the reality, when it comes to Pakistan's current electoral politics which is based on a system of patronage. He is also significantly underestimating the serious national threat posed by the Taliban and other militant groups and the widespread culture of corruption in the country.

Here's a brief video clip of the event:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Malala Moment: Pakistan's Cowardly Politicians

Pakistan 2013 Election Predictions

Pakistan's Culture of Corruption

Imran Khan's Lahore Rally

Pakistan's Politics of Patronage

Pakistani Judges' Jihad Against Corruption

Incompetence and Corruption in Pakistan

Culture of Corruption at Imran's Kasur Rally

Imran Tells Obama: Leave Afghanistan

Pak Taliban Killing Spree Continues

Appeasement in Swat

Pakistan's Growing Insurgency

Rising Intolerance in Pakistan

Fighting Agents of Intolerance in Pakistan

Muslim Scholars Must Fight Hate in Pakistan

South Asian Christians Celebrate Christmas in Fear

Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah's Vision

Pakistan Must Defeat Agents of Intolerance

Celebrating Quaid-e-Azam M.A. Jinnah's Birthday

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Pakistan Among Top Meat Consuming Nations

Media coverage of Pakistan's brisk Eid-ul-Azha livestock sales are a reminder that the nation is among the world's top ten consumers of goat meat and beef based on USDA data.

Pakistan's goat meat consumption of 779,000 tons in 2011-12 ranks it among the top 3 in the world. 1.7 million tons of beef consumption in Pakistan is ranked 9th among beef consuming nations. In addition, 834,000 tons of poultry meat consumption puts it among world's top 20.

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12

Along with rising meat consumption, there has also been a big surge in milk consumption with the ongoing livestock revolution in Pakistan. Pakistanis consumed nearly 39 million tons of milk in 2011-12, according to Economic Survey of Pakistan. This translates into 223 Kg of milk consumption per person which is about the same as the developed world's per capita milk consumption and more than twice that of neighboring India's 96 kg per capita.

Although meat consumption in Pakistan is rising, it still remains very low by world standards. At just 18 Kg per person, it's less than half of the world average of 42 Kg per capita meat consumption reported by the FAO.

Being mostly vegetarian, neighboring Indians consume only 3.2 Kg of meat per capita, less than one-fifth of Pakistan's 18 Kg. Daal (legumes or pulses) are popular in South Asia as a protein source. Indians consume 11.68 Kg of daal per capita, about twice as much as Pakistan's 6.57 Kg.

Another ingredient popular in South Asian cuisine is vegetable oil. It's an important source of fat and protein for a nutritious and tasty diet. Edible oil consumption soars during the holidays as hundreds of millions of people eat sweets and fried foods during the September-December festive season. Pakistanis use about 20 Kg of oil, the per capita amount recommended by the World Health Organization, while Indians consume about 13 Kg per capita.

Source: USDA Report 2013

Celebratory occasions like Eid or Diwali push sugar consumption in South Asia. Pakistan's per capita sugar consumption is about 23 Kg while India's is about 20 Kg per person per year.

Fish Farming Growth in Pakistan. Source: FAO

Although still below average relative to the world, per capita consumption of meat, milk and edible oil is rising with rising incomes and standards of living in both India and Pakistan. As the dietary habits change, it'll be important for policy makers and health and fitness professionals to watch the changes and help educate the people about healthy eating.

Here's a video of MeatOne, a meat packer in Karachi:

Post by Meat One.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Malala Moment: Profiles in Courage...Not!

Ordinary Pakistanis have responded to the barbaric attack on courageous 14-year-old Swat schoolgirl Malala Yousufzai and her classmates by expressing outrage and demanding action against the perpetrators. They have poured out into the streets for prayers for Malala's speedy recovery.

The cowardly attack on a teenage schoolgirl is shocking. But it should not be surprising. The Taliban have a long track record in both Afghanistan and Pakistan of attacking anyone, regardless of age and gender, who disagrees with their goals or tactics. They have a record of using extreme violence to silence those who dare to criticize them. The Taliban have repeatedly said that do not believe in constitutional democracy, political processes and elections.

With the exception of some ANP, MQM and PPP leaders, the rest of the political leadership in Pakistan has failed to rise to the occasion. Here are some recent cowardly statements on the subject of Taliban militancy by PTI and PML(N) leaders:

“Who will save my party workers if I sit here and give big statements against the Taliban.” PTI Chief Imran Khan

"I will support military operation (against the Taliban) if you can guarantee peace after it." PTI Chief Imran Khan

“Gen. Musharraf planned a bloodbath of innocent Muslims at the behest of others only to prolong his rule, but we in the PML-N opposed his policies and rejected dictation from abroad. If the Taliban are also fighting for the same cause then they should not carry out acts of terror in Punjab.” PML (N) Leader Shahbaz Sharif

Pakistan's coward politicians need to draw some inspiration from brave little Malala Yousufzai. The nation desperately needs courageous leaders at this moment in history. Pakistan's leaders, particularly those in the Opposition, are failing the basic test of leadership. They are paralyzed by the fear of the militants. They are begging the Taliban to spare them. They are unwilling to take any risks and demanding impossible guarantees of peace that no one can provide. This is a recipe for inaction in the face of the Taliban onslaught on innocent civilians.

Some, especially those in the politico-religious leadership, are promoting confusion to distract the people from the real threat Pakistan faces today. Samia Qazi, the daughter of Jamate-Islami leader Qazi Husain Ahmed, is orchestrating a social media and email campaign against 14-year-old Malala Yousufzai to tarnish her image by attacking the victim to deflect attention from the TTP's crimes. Qazi and her supporters are being deliberately disingenuous by claiming sympathy for Malala while at the same time they engage in a smear campaign against her to paint her as an American agent.

In a picture first tweeted by Samia Qazi and posted on social media sites, she claims that Malala is meeting American generals. In fact, there is no American general in it. It is actually a still frame from a documentary made by the New York Times, which specifies the footage is from a simple meeting with late Richard Holbrook, US diplomatic representative to the region in 2009, during which Malala asked the US for help in girls’ education in Pakistan. Samia Qazi should remember that, by her logic, her brother, Asif Luqman Qazi, can also be found guilty by association because he must have met many Americans while attending Boston University in the United States.

Those who refuse to speak out against the Taliban out of fear or sympathy must remember this: If the Taliban succeed in acquiring power in Pakistan, they will not spare them because none of them will measure up to Taliban's expectations of a "good" Muslim.

Samia Qazi will be targeted by the Taliban because they will find her too well-educated and too outspoken for a woman. Asif Qazi will be considered by them as guilty of associating with Americans while in Boston. Imran Khan will face the Taliban's wrath for his past transgressions of engaging in alleged pre-marital sex and for marrying a Jewish woman. The Sharif brothers will be unacceptable to them because they have no beards. Those in the media will be targeted for exercising their right to criticize them.

The Taliban will implement draconian laws in the guise of their extreme version of Sharia and enforce such laws with brutal religious police. They will force all men to grow long beards and force burqa on all women. They will ban women's education and shut girls' schools. They will ban television as they did in Afghanistan when they ruled it. In short, the Taliban will find reasons to persecute all non-Taliban just as they did in Afghanistan in 1990s before the post-911 US invasion of Afghanistan.

Let there be no mistake: The phenomenon of Taliban is a Fitna not unlike the 11th century Isma'ili shia Hashasheen (Assassins) whom Marco Polo depicted as trained killers responsible for the systematic elimination of fellow Muslims, mostly Sunnis, who disagreed with them.

Na haq kai liye uththe to shamshir bhi fitna hai
Shamsheer hi kiya nara-e-takbeer bhi fitna hai

To prevent the Taliban from achieving their goals of dominance in Pakistan, the country needs a comprehensive strategy with both political and military components. Such a strategy must be regional to deal with the possibility of the Taliban crossing the Durand line for safe havens as part of their defense. It must begin with building broad popular support, if not consensus, to defeat the Taliban. It must include an effective education campaign led by the politicians and civil society as well as the mass media to end all confusion about the serious threat posed in Pakistan by all factions of the Taliban who all share similar goals of taking control of the country to impose their dark vision in the name of Islam. It must also include a decisive force component to militarily defeat the hard core leadership of the Taliban.

Here's a recent video discussion on the subject:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pak Taliban Killing Spree Continues

Appeasement in Swat

Pakistan's Growing Insurgency

Rising Intolerance in Pakistan

Fighting Agents of Intolerance in Pakistan

Muslim Scholars Must Fight Hate in Pakistan

South Asian Christians Celebrate Christmas in Fear

Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah's Vision

Pakistan Must Defeat Agents of Intolerance

Celebrating Quaid-e-Azam M.A. Jinnah's Birthday

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Pakistan's Top Fashion Models

Mass media revolution and rising consumption in Pakistan have spawned an impressive fashion scene in the last decade. It has given birth to a young and thriving fashion industry and created unprecedented opportunities for beautiful young professional models who show off a range of fashion apparel, cosmetics, jewelry and accessories as well as other consumer products and services to a rapidly growing brand-conscious middle class.It has also opened up export opportunities for brand-name textile and leather products and cosmetics and jewelry from Pakistan.

Here are some of the popular models often seen on TV and in print ads and on runways at frequent fashion shows in Pakistan and overseas:

1. Tehmeena Afzal: