Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ
In a campaign speech on May 1, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi bragged about his campaign of transnational assassinations of individuals he has labeled "terrorists". “Today, India doesn't send dossiers to the masters of terrorism, but gives them a dose and kills them on their home turf", he is reported to have said, according to a tweet posted by his BJP party. Last month, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh made a similar admission. “If any terrorist from a neighboring country tries to disturb India or carry out terrorist activities here, he will be given a fitting reply. If he escapes to Pakistan we will go to Pakistan and kill him there,” Singh said in an interview to Indian TV news network News18.
Earlier, Pakistan government accused India of carrying out assassinations of Sikh and Kashmiri separatists on Pakistani soil. “We have documentary, financial and forensic evidence of the involvement of the two Indian agents who masterminded these assassinations,” Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Sajjad Qazi said at a news conference in Islamabad.
Pakistan is not alone in accusing India of assassinating dissidents overseas. Canada and the United States are also investigating murders allegedly carried out by Indian agents on their soil. Indian spies have also been kicked out of Australia after being caught monitoring Indian diaspora in the country. "They monitored their country's diaspora community, according to the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) Director-General Mike Burgess as reported by the Australian Broadcasting Corp (ABC). "They asked a public servant to provide information on security protocols at a major airport."
Commenting on the news fromAustralia, a US analyst Derek Grossman posted on X: "Indian RAW gets exposed again, this time in Australia. Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t very good at the spy game".
Gerry Shih of the Washington Post appears to concur with Derek Grossman's assessment of the incompetence of the Indian spy agencies. Referring to RAW's assassination plot against Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US citizen, Shih reported as follows:
"After the plot against Pannun failed, the decision to entrust (Vikram) Yadav with the high-risk mission sparked recriminations within the agency, former officials said. Rather than joining RAW as a junior officer, Yadav had been brought in midcareer from India’s less prestigious Central Reserve Police Force, said one former official. As a result, the official said, Yadav lacked training and skills needed for an operation that meant going up against sophisticated U.S. counterintelligence capabilities".
Back in 2018, India's former RAW officers, including one ex chief, have blamed Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav, arrested by Pakistan in 2016, for getting caught in Pakistan as a "result of unprofessionalism", according to a report in India's "The Quint" owned and operated by a joint venture of Bloomberg News and Quintillion Media. The report that appeared briefly on The Quint website was later removed, apparently under pressure from the Indian government.
Shaikh Hasina has won a 5th term in yet another sham election which saw a mere 40% voter turnout. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, boycotted the election. Months leading up to the elections saw protests in the country suffering from economic slowdown, human rights violations and a crackdown on the opposition parties. Her longevity in office is believed to be largely orchestrated by India. Her own Foreign Minister Abdul Momen acknowledged this fact when he made a trip to New Delhi in 2022 and said, "I've requested Modi government to do whatever is necessary to sustain Sheikh Hasina's government".
Bangladesh PM Shaikh Hasina (L) with Indian PM Narendra Modi
Upon her return from India in 2022, Sheikh Hasina told the news media in Dhaka, "They (India) have shown much sincerity and I have not returned empty handed". It has long been an open secret that Indian intelligence agency RAW helped install Shaikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and her Awami League party relies on New Delhi's support to stay in power. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen has described India-Bangladesh as one between husband and wife. In an interview with Indian newspaper 'Ajkal,' he said, "Relation between the both countries is very cordial. It's much like the relationship between husband and wife. Though some differences often arise, these are resolved quickly." Both Bangladeshi and Indian officials have reportedly said that Sheikh Hasina "has built a house of cards".
British Indian analyst Dr. Avinash Paliwal explains Shaikh Hasina's current dilemma as follows: "Politically reliant on New Delhi, she (Hasina) is finding it increasingly difficult to manage the ramifications of India's turn towards Hindu nationalism that misuses migration from Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis for domestic electoral gain". Justice Surendra Kumar Sinha, Bangladesh's former Chief Justice, has said India is backing Sheikh Hasina's autocratic government for its own interest. Here's how prominent Indian journalist SNM Abdi explains Indian intelligence agency RAW's influence in Bangladesh: "India wields more influence in Bangladesh than the Security Council’s five permanent members put together. The Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is the most dreaded outfit in the neighboring country surpassing even the brutally unforgiving RAB (Rapid Action Battalion). Hasina lives in mortal fear of RAW. She knows that she will be toppled if she displeases India. So she has adopted the policy of pleasing India to retain power at any cost".
Bangladesh has received wide acclaim for its remarkable economic success under the authoritarian leadership of Shaikh Hasina over the last decade. She has jailed many of her political opponents and hanged others. She has tamed the country's judiciary and gagged Bangladeshi mainstream media. What has helped her retain power is the fact she has New Delhi's support and she has succeeded in delivering rapid economic growth that has helped improve the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis. However, a combination of current global inflation and the resulting economic crisis is unravelling this formula. Ordinary Bangladeshis are being hit by high food and fuel prices. There is widespread discontent and anger among the people of Bangladesh against the Hasina government and its chief supporter India.
Bangladesh's currency taka has depreciated by over 40% against the US dollar in the last two years, import bill has soared by nearly 44%, forex reserves have declined to $20 billion and the revenue from ready made garments export and remittances is not keeping pace with the fast rising imports. Bangladesh is receiving a $4.7 billion IMF bailout to cope with the situation. In addition, India has agreed to trade with Bangladesh in local currencies to reduce pressure on forex reserves.
Bangladesh is not the only economy in trouble. The European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are also experiencing severe economic pain. India's forex reserves are falling and its current account deficit is rising as foreign direct investment declines. High energy prices and the strong US dollar are hurting most of the world economies. Food and energy prices have shot up due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The US currency driven by aggressive US Federal Reserve policy of rate hikes has reached new highs. A stronger dollar for the US means cheaper imports, a tailwind for efforts to contain inflation, and record relative purchasing power for Americans. But the rest of the world is straining under the dollar’s rise, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The United States Department of Justice has filed an indictment alleging that an Indian agent hired an assassin to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist. It seems that the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval now believe in their own hype about India being a superpower that can get away with murdering American citizens on the US soil.
Earlier, a Canadian Sikh leader named Hardeep Singh Nijjar was murdered in June this year in British Columbia. The US DOJ believes that Nikhil Gupta was involved in both the killing in Canada of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and the attempted murder in New York, He is reported to have told an associate two days before the Nijjar’s slaying: “we are doing their job, brother. We are doing their New York [and] Canada [job],” according to the indictment. He lives in India and was arrested on the charges in the Czech Republic on June 30, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. Gupta's plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun was foiled in a US sting operation involving an informant who was being recruited by him to be the hitman.
“Modi and Doval have a much more macho approach to statecraft, including taking a more risky approach in intel operations in order to say, ‘Look at how tough I am in protecting India’s interests’,” said Paul McGarr, a specialist in South Asian security and intelligence at King's College London, according to France24 news agency. “RAW could do it before, but wouldn’t have conducted assassinations without Modi’s approval,” added McGarr. “RAW has got the political license to kill under Modi.”
The US DOJ decision to go public with charges came after President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA Director William Burns warned India of potential consequences for the U.S.-India relationship over the actions, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The Indian government is engaged in a worldwide assassination campaign targeting Sikhs and Kashmiris seen as "terrorists" by New Delhi, according to leaked documents of Pakistani intelligence agencies. Inside Pakistan, a spate of assassinations and other attacks in recent years targeted people alleged to be involved in Sikh and Kashmiri activism as well as Islamist militancy inside India, according to The Intercept. Last month, the Pakistani government arrested people it believes were involved in targeted killings of Sikhs and Kashmiris inside Pakistan.
Pakistan foreign office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said her country remained a “target of a series of targeted killings and espionage by (Indian Intelligence Agency) RAW". “In December last year, Pakistan released a comprehensive dossier providing concrete and irrefutable evidence of India’s involvement in the Lahore attack of June 2021. The attack was planned and executed by Indian intelligence,” she said, adding that in 2016, a high-ranking Indian military officer Kulbhushan Jadhav confessed to his involvement in directing, financing and executing terror and sabotage in Pakistan.
Narendra Modi has a long history of murdering minorities in his country. After the Gujarat anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Narendra Modi made the cover of India Today magazine with the caption "Hero of Hatred". Modi was denied a visa to visit the United States. The US visa ban on Modi was lifted in 2014 after he became prime minister. Since then, Narendra Modi's image has been rehabilitated by the West as the US and Western Europe seek allies in Asia to counter the rise of China. However, Modi's actions on the ground in India confirm that he remains "Hero of Hatred" and "Divider In Chief" at his core. A recent two-part BBC documentary explains this reality in significant detail. The first part focuses on the 2002 events in Gujarat when Modi as the state chief minister ordered the police to not stop the Hindu mobs murdering Muslims and burning their homes and businesses. The second part looks at Modi government's anti-Muslim policies, including the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy (article 370) and a new citizenship law (CAA 2019) that discriminates against Muslims. It shows the violent response by security forces to peaceful protests against the new laws, and interviews the family members of people who were killed in the 2020 Delhi riots orchestrated by Modi's allies.
Here's Indian National Security Advisor on how to use Taliban to attack Pakistan:
Shaikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, recently visited New Delhi to seek political and economic assistance from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This summit was preceded by Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen's trip to India where he said, "I've requested Modi government to do whatever is necessary to sustain Sheikh Hasina's government". Upon her return from India, Sheikh Hasina told the news media in Dhaka, "They (India) have shown much sincerity and I have not returned empty handed". It has long been an open secret that Indian intelligence agency RAW helped install Shaikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and her Awami League party relies on New Delhi's support to stay in power. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen has described India-Bangladesh as one between husband and wife. In an interview with Indian newspaper 'Ajkal,' he said, "Relation between the both countries is very cordial. It's much like the relationship between husband and wife. Though some differences often arise, these are resolved quickly." Both Bangladeshi and Indian officials have reportedly said that Sheikh Hasina "has built a house of cards".
Bangladesh PM Shaikh Hasina (L) with Indian PM Narendra Modi
British Indian analyst Dr. Avinash Paliwal explains Shaikh Hasina's current dilemma as follows: "Politically reliant on New Delhi, she (Hasina) is finding it increasingly difficult to manage the ramifications of India's turn towards Hindu nationalism that misuses migration from Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis for domestic electoral gain". Justice Surendra Kumar Sinha, Bangladesh's former Chief Justice, has said India is backing Sheikh Hasina's autocratic government for its own interest. Here's how prominent Indian journalist SNM Abdi explains Indian intelligence agency RAW's influence in Bangladesh: "India wields more influence in Bangladesh than the Security Council’s five permanent members put together. The Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is the most dreaded outfit in the neighboring country surpassing even the brutally unforgiving RAB (Rapid Action Battalion). Hasina lives in mortal fear of RAW. She knows that she will be toppled if she displeases India. So she has adopted the policy of pleasing India to retain power at any cost".
Bangladesh has received wide acclaim for its remarkable economic success under the authoritarian leadership of Shaikh Hasina over the last decade. She has jailed many of her political opponents and hanged others. She has tamed the country's judiciary and gagged Bangladeshi mainstream media. What has helped her retain power is the fact she has New Delhi's support and she has succeeded in delivering rapid economic growth that has helped improve the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis. However, a combination of current global inflation and the resulting economic crisis is threatening to unravel this formula.
Bangladesh's currency has lost 11% of its value against the US dollar in just one week, import bill has soared by nearly 44%, forex reserves of $37 billion are falling and the revenue from ready made garments export and remittances is not keeping pace with the fast rising imports. Bangladesh is now seeking a $4.5 billion loan to cope with the situation. In addition, India has agreed to trade with Bangladesh in local currencies to reduce pressure on forex reserves.
Bangladesh is not the only economy in trouble. The European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are also experiencing severe economic pain. India's forex reserves are falling and its current account deficit is rising as foreign investors pull out. High energy prices and the strong US dollar are hurting most of the world economies. Food and energy prices have shot up due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The US currency driven by aggressive US Federal Reserve policy of rate hikes has reached new highs. A stronger dollar for the US means cheaper imports, a tailwind for efforts to contain inflation, and record relative purchasing power for Americans. But the rest of the world is straining under the dollar’s rise, according to the Wall Street Journal.
What are Asad Durrani and AS Dulat, ex spooks of India and Pakistan, trying to accomplish with their joint appearances and book collaboration? What is “Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace" all about? What have the two revealed about the work of ISI and RAW spy agencies with Kashmiri insurgents? Has the Modi government lost control of the situation in Kashmir? Why does Durrani say that all Pakistan has to do now in Kashmir is "sit back and watch"? Why have both spy agencies been bribing the militants to buy influence? Is "corrupting someone with money more ethical than killing them" as AS Dulat has put it? Is Dulat's optimism about solution to Kashmir issue justified?
Why are both Nawaz Sharif and Donald Trump attacking the "deep state" or "establishment" in their respective countries? Why are they both spinning conspiracy theories? Is it to deflect public attention from the serious allegations against them? How serious are the problems of Russia collusion in the US case and money laundering in Pakistan's case? Are they succeeding in their efforts? Are their defense strategies causing major harm to the national cohesion in Pakistan and US? How will it all end?
Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)
Ahmar Mustikhan, a pro-insurgency Baloch activist based in Washington D.C., has released a video recorded in Urdu in which he has lambasted Indian intelligence agency RAW for letting him down. Mustikhan has been part of Indian sponsored media campaign to attack Pakistan in the United States. He has collaborated with Tarek Fatah known for his advocacy for Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. He has been in the news for heckling visiting Pakistani leaders during presentations at think tanks in the US capital.
Baloch Activist Ahmar Mustikhan With Tarek Fatah
Mustikhan says he "was promised huge help by those who were interested in the heckling of Nawaz Sharif. None of those promises were ever fulfilled. There was this gentleman in the Indian embassy who left (for India) in January and never fulfilled his promise. There were other things that happened too," according to Pakistani media reports.
"RAW's system is so corrupt that its high officials keep 40 percent of what's earmarked. India should have been engaged in public diplomacy and helping those who are involved in raising the profile of Balochistan issue but while China is trying to build, India is choosing to bomb. India is going in the opposite direction—it should have helped the people who are involved in diplomatic effort," he said.
The RAW man he named in his video is Nagesh Bhushan. He says Bhushan worked at the Indian spy agency's Balochistan Desk. Another Indian journalist Aveek Sen has described Bhushan as "media fixer" in a 2016 tweet in response to pro-independence Baloch activist Shah Nawaz Bugti. Sen's tweet said "hello, Mr. Nagesh Bhushan. Introducing the media fixer to the world".
Here's Mustikhan's video:
https://youtu.be/XOEaea4u8_4
The current Baloch Nationalist revolt in Pakistan started in 2003, the same year that Indian intelligence agency RAW recruited Kulbhushan Jadhav and gave him a new identity as Hussein Mubarak Patel, according to Indian media reports. This was three years before the killing of Baloch leader Akbar Bugti on August 26, 2006. Jadhav was sent to Chabahar in Iran to orchestrate insurgent attacks next door in Balochistan.
Kulbhushan Jadhav was arrested in Balochistan in 2016. He has confessed to orchestrating insurgent attacks on targets in Balochistan that resulted in deaths, injuries and destruction of property.
India's former RAW officers, including one ex chief, have blamed Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav, arrested by Pakistan in 2016, for getting caught in Pakistan as a "result of unprofessionalism", according to a report in India's "The Quint" owned and operated by a joint venture of Bloomberg News and Quintillion Media. The report that appeared briefly on The Quint website has since been removed, apparently under pressure from the Indian government.
It is believed to be the strongest and longest of the insurgencies seen in Pakistani Balochistan which has had earlier bouts of it in 1948, 1958-59, 1962-63 and 1973-77.
"Directorate S: The C. I. A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016" by Steve Coll holds Pakistan ISI's Directorate S primarily responsible for America's longest war.
The author does acknowledge other factors such as Washington's policy failures, Kabul government's corruption, divisions and dysfunction, Indian intelligence RAW's role, etc. However, he plays down the significance of these other factors and pins the blame squarely on Pakistan ISI, particularly its Directorate S which the author describes as one of the ISI directorates "devoted to secret operations in support of the Taliban, Kashmiri guerrillas, and other violent Islamic radicals". The book sticks essentially to America's oft-repeated narrative of blaming Pakistan for US failure to win the war after 16 years of fighting.
Vital American Interests in Afghanistan:
Coll narrates top-level discussions during the successive administrations of President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama identified America's objectives/vital interests in the region are as follows:
1. Destroy Al Qaeda in the region
2. Ensure Pakistan's stability to keep nukes out of the hands of terrorists
Notably absent from these goals is the defeat/destruction of the Taliban.
While there was considerable success in achieving the first objective, the actions taken to achieve that success induced instability in Pakistan. It gave rise to Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which launched deadly attacks on the Pakistani state that killed tens of thousands of civilians and security personnel.
Efforts by the United States to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban went nowhere, partly due to strong opposition to such talks by Tajik faction of the Afghan government.
India-Pakistan Great Game in Afghanistan:
Author Steve Coll quotes Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, President Barack Obama's representative for the region, as explaining how critical India-Pakistan relationship is to solving Afghanistan. Holbrooke said, "There are three countries here--Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India--with vastly different stages of political, social, and economic development. They share a common strategic space. As has happened so many times in history, the weak state is the one that sucks in the others. That's the history of Afghanistan and now the Great Game is being played with different players. The India-Pakistan relationship is an absolutely critical driver".
India's Covert War Against Pakistan:
Coll acknowledges Indian intelligence agency RAW's role in Afghanistan saying that "it was not as if R.A.W. had dropped out of covert actions specifically designed to undermine Pakistani stability"..... efforts that run counter to America's vital interest/goal number 2 in the region.
However, the author underplays its importance. He fails to take notice of the mounting evidence that even some Indian analysts and media find hard to ignore. Here are some instances:
1. Bharat Karnad, a professor of national security studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, recently acknowledged India's use of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist group against Pakistan in an Op Ed he wrote for Hindustan Times.
2. Indian journalist Praveen Swami said in a piece published in "Frontline": "Since 2013, India has secretly built up a covert action program against Pakistan."
3. India's former RAW officers, including one ex chief, have blamed Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav, arrested by Pakistan in 2016, for getting caught in Pakistan as a "result of unprofessionalism", according to a report in India's "The Quint" owned and operated by a joint venture of Bloomberg News and Quintillion Media. The report that appeared briefly on The Quint website has since been removed, apparently under pressure from the Indian government.
4. A story by Indian journalist Karan Thapar pointed out several flaws in the Indian narrative claiming that Kulbhushan Jadhav, arrested in Pakistan while engaging in India's covert war in Balochistan, was an innocent Indian businessman kidnapped from Chabahar by Pakistani agents. Writing for the Indian Express, Thapar debunked the entire official story from New Delhi.
Former US Defense Secretary Hagel:
Indian journalist claims that India's covert war against Pakistan started in 2013. However, former US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said back in 2011 that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan". Secretary Hagel was speaking at Cameron University in Oklahoma.
General David Petraeus's View:
General David Petraeus, former CIA director and commander of US troops in Afghanistan, has said there is no evidence of Pakistan playing a double game and supporting terrorists in Afghanistan.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London in 2016, he said "I looked very very hard then (as US commander in Afghanistan) and again as CIA director at the nature of the relationship between the various (militant) groups in FATA and Baluchistan and the Pakistan Army and the ISI and I was never convinced of what certain journalists have alleged (about ISI support of militant groups in FATA).... I have talked to them (journalists) asked them what their sources are and I have not been able to come to grips with that based on what I know from these different positions (as US commander and CIA director)".
Gen Petraeus did acknowledge that "there's communication between the ISI and various militant groups in FATA and Balochistan (Haqqanis, Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc) but some of it you'd do anyway as an intelligence service." He added that "there may be some degree of accommodation that is forced on them (Pakistanis) because of the limits of their (Pakistan's) forces."
Former CIA Officer Michael Scheuer's View of ISI:
To put unrelenting western and India media and analysts' attacks on the ISI in perspective, let's read some excerpts from an interview of ex CIA officer and chief Bin Laden hunter Michael Scheuer on ISI, and watch the following video:
1. ISI is like all other intelligence services--like the Australian service or the American service.
2. ISI works for the interest of their country, not to help other countries.
3. The idea that ISI is a rogue organization is very popular--and even the Pakistanis promote it---but having worked with ISI for the better part of 20 years, I know the ISI is very disciplined and very able intelligence agency.
4. Pakistanis can not leave the area (AfPak) when we (Americans) do. They have to try and stabilize Afghanistan with a favorable Islamic government so they can move their 100,000 troops from their western border to the eastern border with India which---whether we like it or not, they see as a bigger threat.
5. We (US) have created the mess in South Asia and the Pakistanis have to sort it out. Our (US) problems in Afghanistan are of our own making.
6. Al Qaeda has grown from just one platform (Afghanistan in 2001) to six platforms now.
Summary:
"Directorate S: The C. I. A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016" by Steve Coll holds Pakistan ISI's Directorate S primarily responsible for America's longest war. The author does acknowledge other factors such as Washington's policy failures, Kabul government's corruption, divisions and dysfunction, Indian intelligence RAW's role, etc. However, he plays down the significance of these other factors and pins the blame squarely on Pakistan ISI, particularly its Directorate S. Coll downplays all evidence pointing to India's covert war being waged against Pakistan from the Afghan soil. It is this war that is destabilizing both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ignoring it will delay any resolution to the Afghan problem.
Here's a video of ex CIA Officer Michael Scheuer talking about ISI:
Mohanlal Bhaskar was working undercover for Indian intelligence agency RAW when he was arrested in a counter-intelligence operation by Pakistan. He remained in Pakistani jails from 1967 to 1974. He and dozens of his fellow Indian spies were released as part of a prisoner exchange with India following the signing of the Simla Accord by Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
Mohanlal Bhaskar: An Indian Spy in Pakistan
In a 1983 autobiographical book titled "An Indian Spy in Pakistan", Bhaskar says that he took on a false identity as Mohammad Aslam and had himself circumcised to operate as a Pakistani Muslim on behalf of Indian intelligence in Pakistan. The book was originally written in Hindi as "Main Pakistan Mein Bharat Ka Jasoos Tha" and later translated into English by Jai Ratan.
Bhaskar's mission was to gather intelligence on Pakistan's nuclear program when he was betrayed by Amrik Singh, a double agent who worked for both Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies.
Bhaskar narrates his treatment as a prisoner in several detention and interrogation centers and his trial on charges of espionage. He met some very kind jailers and fellow Pakistani inmates in some places but he also recounts instances of hate and torture he suffered during his detentions at some facilities. From his account, the treatment he was given depended on the individuals he encountered rather than a systemic policy.
Bhaskar claims that he met former Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto during his time as a prisoner at Lahore's Kot Lakhpat jail. Bhaskar also says that Sheikh Mujib ur Rehman was in Mianwali jail while he was held there. He boasts about the Indian Air Force jets bombing Pakistan Air Force base at Mianwali and rendering it inoperable during 1971 war.
Bhaskar's book appears to have been vetted and its contents influenced by the Indian intelligence. It particularly shows through when he reflects Indian government's party line and blames Pakistan for India-Pakistan conflict. He blames Pakistan for the 1971 hijacking of an Indian aircraft "Ganga". It has now been acknowledged by an ex RAW official R.K. Yadav that the hijackers posing as Kashmiri militants were in fact Indian agents.
The author shows his bigotry when he suggests that the actions of the Pakistani criminals he met were representative of the Pakistani society at large. He quotes a fellow Indian prisoner Sohan Lal as claiming that "of all the countries of Asia, homosexuality is most prevalent in Pakistan." At another place in the book, the author talks about General Yahya Khan's mistress "General Rani" and says "woe to the country whose rulers and husbands can be so perverse".
Upon his return to India as part of prisoner exchange after Simla Agreement, Bhaskar talks about how hard it was for him to find a job. He is particularly bitter about how little his government cared for him and his fellow spies who gave the most productive years of their lives in service of their country. Bhaskar is particularly incensed by the response of Prime Minister Morarji Desai whom he asked for help. He recalls Desai telling him: " Why should we suffer for your mistakes committed in Pakistan. Do you mean to say that if Pakistan had kept you in jail for twenty years then our government should compensate you for the same number of years?" It's a chilling message to all Indian spies undertaking dangerous undercover missions in other countries.
Last year, India's ex foreign secretary Sujata Singh bitterly complained about negative stories "planted in the media" by the Modi government to "tarnish" her reputation as part of the campaign to force her resignation. "The commentary that I have seen over the past two days has pained me deeply. I believe it was not necessary to get low and dirty," she said, according to India's First Post.
RAW Planted Stories:
Doing a Google search today on news about Pakistan shows the first page of the search results filled with negative stories that seem obviously planted by the Modi government in highly search-engine-optimized Indian media.
The planted stories present Indian Army's claimed "surgical strikes" in Pakistan as fact. They do not bother to put quotes around "surgical strikes" as international media have done. They do not ask any questions nor offer proof of such "surgical strikes".
Some of these planted stories claim "mass public protests" and "Pakistan flag burnings" in Azad Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan and Balochistan without offering any evidence. Other such made-up stories are about civil-military tensions in Pakistan and the country's "international isolation".
Psychological Operations (PsyOps):
Who plants these stories? And how? Let us examine this in a little more detail.
Professor Shyam Tekwani of the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii has studied how the Indian government plants stories as part of its psychological operations (PsyOps). Here's an excerpt from his book "Media and Conflict Reporting in Asia":
"With a huge deployment of army, paramilitary and police forces fighting a host of separatist rebel armies, psyops has become a regular feature of journalism in conflict-ridden zones like India's Kashmir and northeastern states. The army and the paramilitary forces, the intelligence agencies and even state police have their own budgets and dedicated psyops. While most organizations use their intelligence units and public relations officials to perform the task, the Indian army has a full-fledged psyops cell in the Directorate of Military Intelligence... Bigger intelligence agencies like the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) employ media directors, mostly drawn from the Indian Information Service......And what do they do? Plant and push stories that run down the enemy and their image, promote their own cause and image, cover their track on a secret killing or blame it falsely on others (routine for them to pass off a secret killing by their assets as "infighting among rebels") and create feel-good atmosphere about their own operations.....Psyops planners carefully take into account capabilities of their own "media assets" and the reach of the media they work for and whether the "plant" would hit the target area and create the necessary impact. It is war through the media--whoever said pen is mightier than sword is vindicated--but at the cost of professional journalism."
RAW Money Flow:
India has opened up a big money money spigot to use its agents, including its media assets, to destabilize Pakistan. RK Yadav, an ex intelligence official of RAW, has in a TV interview (Siyasat Ki Baat with RK Yadav video 6:00 minutes), talked about RAW agents with "suitcases and cupboards full of money".
Current National Security Advisor has talked about RAW recruiting terrorists with one-and-a-half times the money they are making from other sources.
RK Yadav has, in his book "Mission R&AW", written about RAW money paid to late Pakistani politician Khan Abul Wali Khan in 1970s. He's also confirmed the existence of RAW-inspired 1960s Agartala Conspiracy that recruited Shaikh Mujib ur Rehman's Awami League to work for Indian intelligence.
More recently, London Police documents have revealed the testimony of MQM leaders Muhammad Anwar and Tariq Mir confirming that Altaf Husain received money from Indian intelligence.
Ex RAW chief A.S. Dulat has said "money goes a long way in Kashmir" intelligence operations. Part of the money, it seems, is now flowing though the " RAW's media directors" and their "media assets" as described by Professor Tekwani in "Media and Conflict Reporting in Asia".
Western Media:
Western media often use a few stringers in conflict zones to file reports. These stringers are low-paid locals who are more prone to manipulation by authorities than more experiencd better-paid correspondents.
Professor Shyam Tekwani explains that foreign agencies like the Associated Press (AP) or Agence France Press (AFP) and even BBC often create a stringer monopoly of one or two that feeds news to all the top global media outlets. Just a couple of stringers can be used by RAW to influence the entire global media reporting on Kashmir.
Pakistani Media:
Pakistani media has grown from about 2,000 journalists in the year 2000 to nearly 20,000 of them now. Rapid growth has meant that many of them are inexperienced and naive. Some of them pick up the planted stories from India and publish them. Others lack conscience and do it for money.
Summary:
Indian media is abuzz with anti-Pakistan stories fabricated by "RAW's media directors" and planted by their "media assets" described by Professor Shyam Tekwani in his book "Media and Conflict Reporting in Asia" . These stories are part of Indian government's campaign to slander Pakistan to achieve the following objectives:
Who is responsible for the Quetta hospital bombing that killed 70 lawyers in Pakistan? Can the Pakistani security establishment get away by blaming RAW for the attacks? Who is ultimately responsible for the security of the Pakistani citizens?
Are the culprits of terror attacks in Pakistan entirely homegrown? Who funded them? Is the Pakistani security establishment serious in fighting the Taliban? Is there foreign involvement? Are Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies involved? Should the Pakistani citizens now talk directly talk to the foreign intelligence agencies and ask the foreign hand for mercy? What has Indian NSA Ajit Doval said about using the Taliban to wage proxy war against Pakistan? Should the Pakistan Army let things happen the way Doval wanted things to happen? What have American officials and analysts been saying about India's role in Pakistan terror? Should Pakistanis use this as an excuse for the ongoing terrorist attacks?
What did Indian agent Kulbhushan Yadav tell the Pakistani authorities? Does that statement prove the might of the Indian intelligence agencies and the impotence of the Pakistanis? What can and must Pakistan do to end this reign of terror?
Is it true that all terrorists are Muslims, especially in the last two years? What do the official statistics say about Muslims' involvement in terrorist attacks in Europe and America? Are those statistics valid for the last two years? Why do the older official stats differ so much from the news media reporting of acts of terror in the West, in the recent past? Is there disproportionate media coverage of terror acts involving Muslim perpetrators?
Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Ali Hasan Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)
The recent release of a 6-minute video confession of Indian intelligence officer arrested by Pakistan has been met by a furious disinformation campaign by the Indian government and Indian media. Their aim is to obfuscate the damning confession and discredit ISPR's fact-based claims. What ISPR and Pakistan government need to understand is that having facts on your side is not sufficient to make your case; it requires the use of all modern PR techniques to have any chance of success in influencing world opinion, particularly western opinion, in your favor.
So What Can Pakistan Do?
I think the ISPR is in way over its head in this effort to persuade the world to believe Pakistan's case in the face of the well-honed Indian spin machine. Pakistan needs serious professionals for this job, the kind of professionals who have experience in orchestrating a campaign that includes news stories, TV analysts' commentaries, newspaper columns and magazine Op-Eds, think tank reports and speeches by the pro-Pakistan Caucus in the US Congress.
India's Spin Machine:
The Indian spin machine was recently in full gear when it tried unsuccessfully to stop the sale by the United States government of just 8 F-16s to Pakistan. The campaign orchestrated by the Indian government included placement of favorable news stories, TV analysts' commentaries, newspaper columns and magazine Op-Eds (including one by Husain Haqqani), think tank reports and speeches by the members of the India Caucus in the US Congress. They all blatantly toed the Indian line that these 8 F-16s would be used against India, not in Pakistan's ongoing counter-insurgency operations. The biased nature of all of these efforts can be gauged by the following facts that were completely ignored by them:
1. There is a huge imbalance in the conventional defense capabilities between India and Pakistan as laid out by GlobalFirePower.com. It ranks India at number 4 in the world while Pakistan is way down at number 17 in 2016.
2. India is world's largest importer of sophisticated weapons, including fighter aircraft, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Here's what it says about the import of weapons between 2011 and 2015: India (14 per cent of global arms imports), China (4.7 per cent), Australia (3.6 per cent), Pakistan (3.3 per cent), Viet Nam (2.9 per cent) and South Korea (2.6 per cent).
3. Pakistan, like the United States elsewhere, has been using F-16s in Operation Zarb e Azb against militants hiding out in Pakistan tribal belt along the border with Afghanistan.
I did not see a single piece in the US media supporting Pakistani position in this battle. It was completely one-sided. They succeeded in forcing a US Senate vote to block the sale. Luckily for Pakistan, Obama administration barely succeeded in overcoming this Indian campaign to do something as trivial as selling just a few F-16s to Pakistan this time.
Kulbushan Yadav Arrest:
The facts about India's sponsorship of terror in Pakistan clearly favor ISPR. The confession video shows a very relaxed Kulbhushan, caught on Pakistani territory using a false Muslim identity as Husain Mubarak Patel, talking to the interrogators and revealing details of his work. He appears to be under no stress. However, I do not think that facts alone can help. Why?
The Obama administration and the western governments and analysts already know what India has been doing to hurt Pakistan. Ex US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has confirmed based on US intelligence reports that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".
Back in 2009, after visiting Indian consulates in Zahedan, Jalalabad and Kandahar, the pro-Indian analyst Christine Fair acknowledged that "they are not issuing visas as the main activity!" She futher said: "Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan". Kulbhushan Yadav's arrest is further confirmation of the fact that India is using development projects such as Chahbahar Port Project in Iran and various infrastructure projects in Afghanistan as cover for Indian intelligence agencies to sponsor terror in Pakistan.
Successful PR Campaign:
Pakistan needs to learn from prior successful PR campaigns used by other countries. For example, Pakistani government needs to look at the Kuwaiti government funded effort that involved as many as 20 PR, law and lobby firms in its campaign to mobilize US opinion to use force against Saddam Hussein in the 1991 Gulf War. Hill & Knowlton, then the world's largest PR firm, served as the mastermind for the Kuwaiti campaign. Its activities alone would have constituted the largest foreign-funded campaign ever aimed at manipulating American public opinion at the time.
Summary:
Pakistan can take heart from the fact that India's spin machine does not always succeed. However, it still needs to employ modern PR techniques to match India's to make the case that it is a victim of terror sponsored, at least in part, by India's intelligence agency. The end goal needs to be to show the world that there is a proxy war being waged in Pakistan. This war needs to end to begin serious diplomacy to bring peace to South Asia.
Let me quote US analyst Stephen Cohen to conclude this: "The alphabet agencies—ISI, RAW, and so forth—are often the chosen instrument of state policy when there is a conventional (and now a nuclear) balance of power, and the diplomatic route seems barren."
Pakistan has released a confessional video in which an arrested Indian spy is heard admitting to New Delhi's involvement in terrorist activities in the Pakistan's province of Balochistan and the megacity of Karachi.
Kulbushan Yadav's Fake ID as Hussein Mubarak Patel
Serving Indian Navy commander Kulbushan Yadav says in the video that he had been directing various Indian intelligence operations in Karachi and Balochistan "at the behest of RAW", the Indian intelligence agency, and that he was still with the Indian Navy. It should be noted that India is on record as strongly opposing China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project.
Pakistani law enforcement agencies arrested Yadav in an intelligence-based raid in Balochistan's Chaman near the border with Afghanistan last week. Before writing and promoting an anti-Pakistan book in India, American analyst and author Christine Fair said this in 2009: "Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity! Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan".
The video was released at a press conference attended by Pakistan Army spokesman Lt Gen Asim Bajwa of ISPR (Inter-Services Press Relations) and Federal Information Minister Pervez Rashid.
Calling Yadav's arrest a "big achievement", Bajwa said Yadav was directly in contact with top RAW officials. "His goal was to disrupt development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with Gwadar port as a special target," Bajwa said.
"This is nothing short of state-sponsored terrorism... There can be no clearer evidence of Indian interference in Pakistan."
Yadav is heard saying in the video that he was still a serving officer in the Indian Navy and would be due for retirement in 2022.
"By 2002, I commenced intelligence operations. In 2003, I established a small business in Chabahar in Iran.
"As I was able to achieve undetected existence and visits to Karachi in 2003 and 2004. Having done some basic assignments within India for RAW, I was picked up by RAW in 2013 end," Yadav said.
Yadav said his purpose was to remain in direct contact with Baloch insurgents and carry out "activities with their collaboration".
He held a valid Indian passport and Iranian visa.
India has denied Yadav was an intelligence operative and said he was formerly from the navy. New Delhi has also demanded consular access to Yadav, which has been denied.
Yadav was moved to Islamabad for interrogation, during which an unnamed official said the spy revealed he had bought boats at the Iranian port in Chabahar to attack Karachi and Gwadar ports, Dawn reported.
Ex US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has confirmed based on US intelligence reports that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan". Since 2013, India's current National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has been talking about "Pakistan's vulnerabilities" to terrorism and India's ability to take advantage of it. The latest arrest of Indian agent Kulbhushan Yadav is confirmation of the Doval Doctrine against Pakistan in action.
