Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Nepal Tragedy Raises Fears of Massive Glacier Melt in Pakistani Mountains

Northern Pakistan is home to over 13,000 glaciers which pose a risk of catastrophic flash floods similar to the recent flash floods in Nepal. Pakistani officials have warned that shifts in glacier behavior are increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where communities face growing exposure to sudden flooding and landslides.

Glacial Lake in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan Region. Source: AIGEO360

Pakistan is actively monitoring its glaciers using real-time weather tracking and roughly 350 sensor devices installed by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) to mitigate glacial flash flood risks.

This year, the PMD reported record-breaking summer heat across northern valleys (such as Chilas reaching 48.5°C and Bunji hitting 46.1°C), accelerating ice melt in Gilgit-Baltistan region and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The heat triggered two major GLOF events that were officially recorded during the 2026 monsoon season in Gilgit-Baltistan, causing localized road and infrastructure damage but no casualties due to early siren activation and community alerts.

Pakistani lawmakers and committees argue that the current count of 350 sensors remains critically low for tracking the vast Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) glacier network. They are calling for expanded international support to significantly increase the number of sensors to enhance monitoring network.

Hasanabad Bridge Collapse in Pakistan

Earlier in 2022, record-high temperatures in Pakistan's northern region caused Shisper glacier to melt rapidly, triggering the collapse of the Hassanabad Bridge along the Karakoram Highway.

Pakistan is in the midst of a major solar energy revolution led by consumers. Driven by soaring electricity costs, unreliable grid infrastructure, and cheap imported solar panels, millions of households and businesses have installed rooftop solar. This rapid transition to solar has transformed the country's energy landscape. According to the report, Pakistan’s total electricity demand increased by 33 terawatt-hours (TWh) between fiscal years 2023 and 2025. Distributed solar generation alone grew by 36 TWh during the same period, making it the primary driver of electricity demand growth and offsetting declines elsewhere in the power system.

Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global carbon emissions, is among the countries considered most vulnerable to climate change. About a third of the country was devastated by massive floods in 2022. The nation committed continued pursuit of nature-based solutions to the problem at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. As part of this commitment, the country is planting one of the world's largest mangrove forests in the Indus River Delta, a key component of its Ten Billion Tree Tsunami campaign launched by former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The United States, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the New York Times.

Ten Billion Tree Tsunami: Olive Revolution in Pakistan

Rooftop Solar Net Metering Growth in Pakistan

Climate Change "Loss and Damage"

Pakistan is the 3rd Fastest Growing Trillion Dollar Economy

CPEC Financing: Is China Ripping Off Pakistan?

Pakistan Ramps Up Nuclear Power Generation

Is Pakistan Ready For Clean Energy Revolution?

China Global Power Database on Power Plants in Pakistan

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Pakistan Among Top 3 Countries For New Hydro Installed Capacity

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, August 24, 2026

AI on Wheels: My Experience With Tesla Full Self Drive (FSD)

Recently, I saw a news story suggesting that “more and more seniors are using Tesla FSD (full self drive)”. This prompted me to share my own experience with my readers.

Tesla FSD Warning

My wife and I have been regularly using Tesla Full Self Drive (Supervised FSD) software for several months now. It is a subscription costing us $108.16, including tax, per vehicle. Our experience has generally been positive. We set our destination in the navigation system and let FSD drive us. It pulls out of our driveway, takes us wherever we want to go, and parks on the street, in a parking lot, or in a garage. On occasion, though, we have had to take control when we felt it was necessary, often in response to Tesla warning to “take over immediately”.

Tesla Sensors. Source: Car and Driver Magazine

Both of our Tesla Model Y vehicles use hardware version 3 (HW3). In addition to a computer, HW3 includes 7 cameras and four ultrasonic sensors. We get frequent Tesla software updates, downloaded over the air. As of today, we're on software version 2026.21.6, including FSD v14.3.7. The latest hardware version on new Tesla vehicles is HW4. Tesla recently outlined details on Full Self-Driving (FSD) v15, describing it as a major "step-change" in capability featuring a 10-billion parameter neural network. Tesla confirmed that current Hardware 4 (AI4) computers will natively support v15 and unsupervised features, targeting a late 2026 to early 2027 rollout window.

Tesla FSD Speed Modes. Source: Jowua

Tesla FSD allows you to choose a driving mode. The choices include Sloth (least aggressive), Chill, Standard, Hurry and Mad Max (most aggressive). Here are more detail on each speed mode:

Sloth: The most cautious setting. It stays strictly at or slightly below the speed limit, favors slow right lanes on highways, and avoids proactive passing.

Chill: A relaxed, smooth profile. It generally targets the exact speed limit and makes fewer or less urgent lane changes.

Standard: The balanced, default setup. It typically drives roughly 5 to 7 mph over the speed limit (traffic permitting) and maintains an average commuting pace.

Hurry: A faster profile designed for quicker travel times. It allows higher offsets above the speed limit and executes more assertive lane changes to pass slower vehicles.

Mad Max: The most assertive profile, built for heavy gridlock or aggressive urban environments (like dense city traffic). It proactively navigates gaps, moves swiftly around traffic flow, and executes maneuvers with higher urgency.

We drive mostly in Standard or Hurry modes. The best part my wife likes is how smoothly it changes lanes even in high traffic conditions. One particular place where it has eliminated her stress is on Oakland Maze, where her route requires 5 quick lane changes to go from one freeway to another.

Waymo Robotaxi With LiDAR mounted on top

There have been several instances where we have had to intervene to take control of the vehicle. These include loss of control when the front camera is blinded by direct sun at certain times of the day. This problem would probably not occur if Tesla vehicles were equipped with a LiDAR scanner that uses laser light pulses to measure distances and create accurate, 3D digital models of objects and environments. Robotaxis like Google's Waymo and Amazon's Zoox use LiDAR devices to achieve fully autonomous driving. However, like the rest of Tesla's vehicle lineup and Full Self-Driving stack, the recently announced Cybercab robotaxi also relies entirely on a vision-based camera system and onboard AI to interpret its surroundings.

In other instances, our Tesla car ran a stop sign that was blocked by a parked truck. It failed to read "STOP" painted on the road surface. At a local Safeway supermarket, it attempted to park in a shopping cart corral. A couple of times after pulling out of our driveway, it took a wrong turn but found its way back to the correct route after taking a detour.

Rapid development and deployment of AI applications like Tesla full self drive and various robotaxi services, including Waymo and Zoox, have broad social and economic implications. It is likely to make transportation safer, but it also threatens the livelihoods of tens of millions of taxi and truck drivers around the world. There have already been protests by drivers' unions in many major cities like London and New York.

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Is the Pakistani Military Ready for Modern Drone Warfare?

The Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran war have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of drone warfare. Is the Pakistani military learning lessons from them to prepare for future conflicts? Let's examine the answer to this question based on recent announcements.

Pakistan's Long Range Drone D-248

Pakistan has revealed a 3,000-kilometer range one-way drone in July this year. The state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) displayed two new long-range loitering munitions – the D-248 and the S-369 – at the 2026 Indus Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Expo on July 22–23, 2026 in Islamabad.

The D-248 drone uses a tailless delta configuration – similar to Iran’s Shahed-136 – and carries a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 240 kg, a wingspan of 3.3 m, a payload of 30-50 kg, a maximum speed of 225 kph, a cruise speed of 185 kph, an endurance of 12-14 hours, and a flight ceiling of up to 4,500 m. Iran's Shahed drones have been used in both the Ukraine-Russia war and the US-Iran conflict. Shahed-136 is relatively inexpensive. It has a swarm capability, and a precision-strike capability at extended ranges.

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Pakistan is also in talks with Ukraine's Fire Point whose long-range drones have launched spectacular strikes deep inside Russia in recent weeks. Fire Point is promoting its FP-1 Deep Strike, a loitering munition with a range of 2,600 km, as well as FP-2 Front Strike, a loitering munition with a range of up to 200 km.

During a recent exercise, called Combined Resolve, Ukrainian drone units easily spotted and defeated U.S. troops and armored vehicles on rotation from Fort Hood in Texas, according to people familiar with the events, reports the Wall Street Journal. It's not just the Americans who fared badly against Ukrainian drones; the British and the Swedes have also witnessed easy Ukrainian triumphs in military exercises. The U.S. has also struggled to defend against Iran’s long-range Shahed drones, which have killed and injured many American soldiers and destroyed aircraft.

The exercising troops from the United States sent heavy armored vehicles into battle that threw up dust and were easy for Ukrainian reconnaissance drones to spot, according to a participant. Those drones were followed by drones dropping explosives and first-person-view drones, which smash into targets in combat, this person said.

Drones are becoming an important part of modern warfare, as demonstrated by ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Gaining military advantage in future conflicts will increasingly depend on how well states conduct technology-driven multi-domain operations by integrating aircraft, drones, electronic warfare, cyber operations, intelligence and AI-assisted analysis.

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Solar Energy Revolution Sparks Battery Boom in Pakistan

After installing over 50 GW of solar panels as of early 2026, Pakistanis are now adding batteries at a rapid pace. The country has imported nearly 7.6 GWh of batteries, with nearly 60% of that total arriving during 2025 alone. Pakistanis are now installing batteries at a rate exceeding 5 GWh annually, according to a recent report by Renewable First. Batteries enable consumers to store excess solar electricity generated during daylight hours for use at night and to smooth out demand on the grid. Batteries also contribute to national grid stability, reducing costs and improving overall energy security for energy-import-dependent Pakistan.

Pakistan's Battery Boom. Source: Renewable First

By FY25, 7.3 million households in Pakistan had solar installed on their rooftops; out of a total 40 million households in the country, that makes nearly 1 in 5 of all Pakistani homes, the report says. With the battery boom gaining pace, around 282,000 solarized households, roughly 4%, now have BESS storage installed at home. That's 1 in every 26 solarized households, a share that is rising fast as storage costs continue to fall.

Lithium-Ion Battery Price Declines. Source: Renewable First

Battery prices have declined about 75% over the past decade, from over $460 per kWh in 2015 to approx. $110 per kWh in 2024, with forecast of further declines through 2027. The introduction of sodium-ion technology is likely to further accelerate widespread adoption of battery storage. Sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace lithium-ion (specifically low-cost LFP) batteries in most stationary (non-ev) applications by reducing prices by 30% to 50%.

Battery Technology Comparison. Source: BoltEarth

A big chunk of Pakistan's import bill goes to pay for energy imports. Last fiscal year, which ended in June, 2026, Pakistan imported oil and gas worth $17 billion, exacerbating the current account deficit. By one estimate, Pakistan avoided over $12 billion in oil and gas import costs between 2021 and February 2026 because of its consumer-led solar revolution. A further ~$6.3 billion hydrocarbon import savings are projected by the end of 2026. Energy imports are the most volatile part of Pakistan's imports because of oil shocks such as the one created by the US-Iran war and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Batteries Can Smooth Out Electricity Demand Duck Curve in Pakistan. Source: Business Record

The ongoing solar revolution and battery boom in Pakistan will help reduce energy costs, improve energy security and help deal with the impact of climate change. Pakistan government policies should fully support this consumer-led movement toward the country's energy independence.

Pakistan's Real Total GDP Exceeds $1 Trillion

Pakistan's Digital Public Infrastructure

Pakistan's Rapid Electrification Stimulating Economy

Pakistan's Electricity Consumption Up 21% in Just Two Years

Pakistan's New Infrastructure Investments and Trade Routes

ASER Pakistan Reports Substantial Progress in Enrolling Out-of-School Children

Pakistan Household Survey Raises More Questions Than It Answers

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Will the Mecca Pact Deter Attacks Against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey?

Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the West. This unqualified western support began with the Gaza genocide and culminated in the launch of joint US-Israeli assault on Iran in February this year.

The entire Middle East region and the Islamic world has helplessly witnessed as the Israeli military butchered innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon and threatened to expand the war to the entire region. Some Israeli politicians issued warnings to Turkey and Pakistan. During this period, the West not only failed to restrain Israel but actively supported it with funds and weapons. The United States and Britain also suppressed domestic criticism of Israel by arresting or deporting people. They went after the chief prosector and the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it issued war crimes indictments of Israeli officials for their conduct in Gaza.

The joint Israeli-American aggression against Iran has spiraled into Iranian attacks against the US bases in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the flow of oil and gas to the rest of the world. It has caused high oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy, Pakistan has stepped in to broker a ceasefire and mediate between the United States and Iran.

While there are many explanations and interpretations of the rationale for the Mecca Pact, there is no question that signing such a mutual defense agreement has been accelerated by the security situation created by Israeli aggression in the Middle East which was fully backed by the United States and other major western nations. It seems that the United States and its western allies have legitimized the principle of "might is right" in the Middle East. Essentially, the law of the jungle has replaced the "rules-based" world order. Hard power now matters more than ever.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. In 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

Combining the Turkish military-industrial capacity with Saudi economic resources and Pakistan's large military and nuclear umbrella creates a formidable deterrent to any adventurism by Israel or any other hostile power against any of these three countries. That is the fundamental value of the Mecca Pact.

On the global stage, Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Geopolitics: Changing Dynamics of Pakistan's Ties to China and the US

Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan

In a piece titled "Pakistan's Great Game", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote from Jaffrelot's recent article on the subject:

"While Pakistan’s relationship with China is rooted in strategic logic, its relationship with the United States is more tactical in nature-and has been since the 1950s, when General Ayub Khan boasted of his ability to play "one lion against another" (referring to the United States and the USSR at the start of the Cold War). In its dealings with the United States, Pakistan has played the role of intermediary, or even "client," within a typical clientelist framework: in exchange for the services Islamabad provided to Washington, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial aid and agreed to sell it sophisticated weapons, and even to train its officers-a privilege greatly appreciated..... The first major service rendered by the Pakistanis to the Americans was none other than the intermediary role played by General Yahya Khan vis-à-vis Chairman Mao in the early 1970s, which led to the United States’ recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Over the following decade, Pakistan served as an intermediary between Washington and the mujahideen tasked with driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan. And in the 2000s, Pakistan was tasked by Washington with hunting down al-Qaeda-with much more mixed success this time, as evidenced by the discovery of bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad in 2011".

Pakistan PM Sharif (L) with Chinese President Xi

Jaffrelot goes on to say that the United States has repeatedly proved to be an unreliable partner of the South Asia nation. "Whenever the United States no longer needed Pakistan-or even felt betrayed by it-it abandoned the country or even imposed sanctions on it", he writes.

More recently, Pakistan's usefulness to the US has once again become obvious, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace with Iran, Jaffrelot says.

"In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan? Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace".

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

Jaffrelot argues that "Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia...... Last June, Kaja Kallas, the EU Vice President in charge of the Union’s international relations, on the occasion of the 8th Strategic Dialogue between Pakistan and the European Union in Islamabad, thanked Pakistan-"a major regional power"-for its efforts in helping to avert an "all-out war" in the Middle East. Jaffrelot now sees Pakistan's new role as a "net security provider" in West Asia and the Middle East.

He writes: "A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran".

Jaffrelot expects India to continue its decade-long campaign to isolate Pakistan internationally. "India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country", according to Jaffrelot.