A recent terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir has killed 26 Indian tourists. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu Nationalist government took no time to blame Pakistan for the attack and vowed to "punish" the neighbor for it. Indian media, also derisively known as "Godi media", immediately went into overdrive to demand action against Pakistan. New Delhi followed up with suspending the Indus Basin Water treaty from the 1960s which guarantees 80% of the water from the three western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers) to Pakistan, while India gets the exclusive use of the water from three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej rivers). India also ordered Pakistani visitors to leave the country and reduced Pakistani diplomatic staff posted in India. Pakistan responded by suspending Simla Agreement and banning overflights of Indian civilian and military aircraft through its airspace. Pakistan warned India that any attempt to block its share of water from the three western rivers will be an "act of war", adding that it was prepared to respond, “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power”. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country, as is India. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine calls for the use of nuclear weapons if its national existence is threatened by any country.
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| Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati |
The Indian mainstream media has amplified the Modi government's propaganda and abandoned its role of asking the hard questions to get at the truth. Among the few who have raised serious doubts about Delhi's narrative is a Hindu religious leader named Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati. In a viral video, the holy man has asked the following questions:
1. Shouldn't our "chowkidar" (Modi has called himself chowkidar in the past) be held accountable for any attacks on our home?
2. How did the attackers manage to come in, carry out the attack without any resistance and safely escape?
3. How did you so quickly determine that the attackers came from Pakistan? And if you are so good at reaching this conclusion so quickly, why were you unable to stop the attack in the first place.
4. Can India really cut off water flow instantly to Pakistan to "punish" it? Experts say it will take at least 20 years if India allocated unlimited funds to make it happen as fast as possible. It will require building dams, water reservoirs and canals to divert the water from Pakistan.
Pakistani journalist Najam Sethi sees the hand of "Indian deep state" at work in Pahalgam, carried out while the US Vice President JD Vance in India. Sethi recalls what former American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wrote in her memoirs titled "Mighty Almighty" about the killing of 35 Sikh villagers in Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan during US President Bill Clinton's India visit in March, 2000. She said Clinton suspected the hand of Hindu extremists in the Chittisinghpura incident. She quoted him saying that if he hadn’t made the trip, the victims would have still been alive.
Among the Indian journalists, only Bharat Bhushan has raised some questions about his country's government narrative. He thinks India violated the back-channel agreement between Modi's NSA Ajit Doval and Pakistan's then NSA Moeed Yusuf reached after 2019 to spare the civilians on both sides in any proxy attacks. Bhushan points out a warning from Lt General Ahmad Sharif that “the (Jaafar Express) train attack (in Balochistan) has changed the rule of the game”.
Bhushan's op ed mentions Modi's muscular policy toward people he sees as "terrorists". Canada, Pakistan and the United States have all accused the Indian government of a campaign of international assassinations. He writes: "Another development has been the targeted killings of terrorists and militants — both Kashmir and Sikhs, that Pakistan alleges have been initiated by Indian intelligence agencies after the Pulwama terrorist strike in 2019 when 40 paramilitary personnel were killed. India was allegedly inspired to undertake extra-judicial killings on foreign soil, from the example of Russia’s KGB, Israel’s Mossad, and the assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi Arabia".
Bhushan concludes his Op Ed in Deccan Herald as follows: "How will India react now to what it believes to be Pakistan-sponsored terrorism? The bravado about punishing every terrorist act with greater-than-expected force is not going to be easy to put in action. Geopolitical circumstances have changed since 2019. Public sentiment cannot be the sole basis of military strikes. Thankfully, no crucial election is in the offing where assuaging public emotions becomes an issue. India will also have to provide proof to the world that Pakistan was indeed involved. This would require the arrest and questioning of the terrorists involved. That may take time. Only the tacit approval of the US can ensure that a strike against Pakistan does not spin out of control".
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It is natural to defend your country you immigrated from.based on bias. I watched the by Najam sethi and his body language and the repeat ed use of the catchphrase Deep state as a result he appears non credible.
ReplyDeleteAjit Duvals interview indicates Indian intelligence does collect information across the line of control via human intelligence
Swami Saraswati is often quoted as his view differs from the administration historically.However his claim for the need of accountability and lack of adequate security are valid.
That Killing of innocent individual tourists is against the basic teachings of the Quran and hence should be condemned by all Muslims and those who did this act should be brought to Justice. It is an indefensible act. .
The question is not which Muslim to blame and was he Pakistani or Kashmiri , these individuals need to be brought to justice cooperatively by both governments.As far s this act is concerned I would not consider them as followers of Islam but terrorists. BBC uses a softer term Militants.
The question besides delivering Justice how one de-escalate the current situation before more innocent people get killed , civilians or soldiers.
No one wants an escalation to lead to the Nuclear option.Look forward to listening to solutions from you as a Senior member of the community.
PD: "It is natural to defend your country you immigrated from.based on bias"
ReplyDeleteI am not defending any country or person; I'm simply asking the questions.
These questions need to be answered.
Pakistan has offered to participate in an independent international investigation of the attack.
India should agree to it if it has nothing to hide.
DeleteSalam Sir
I hope you and your entire team of this blog is doing well.
Sir even I ask this same rational or logical questions to Indians.
When 26/11 happened in Mumbai city, Indian media started blaming and criticising Pakistan for this attack even before the start of the investigation.
As soon as Pakistani authorities learned about this tragic incident that happened in Mumbai city, they called Indian government and offered their cooperation and support in the investigation of the Mumbai attack, but Indian government refused to take any support and cooperation from Pakistan in its investigation.
Now it is upon Indian public to think that if the state of Pakistan and it's millitary was really behind this Mumbai attack, would the government or authorities of Pakistan had come forward to cooperate with India in the investigation of this attack?
Thanks
Why not be creative?
ReplyDeleteWhy not a large reward on both sides of the border for information leading to conviction?
PD: "Why not a large reward on both sides of the border for information leading to conviction?"
ReplyDeleteWon’t work.
There’s absolutely no trust between the two sides.
Only a third party that can be trusted by both sides has the potential to resolve it.
For any conspiracy theorist who thinks the Pahalgam attack must have been a "false flag operation" staged by the Indian establishment, I would point out three facts which makes it look unlikely.
ReplyDeleteOne, despite what Pakistanis may think, the attack doesn't serve Modi's political objectives in Kashmir or anywhere else. For the past several years after the abrogation of Article 370, Modi government has been hyping how they have pacified Kashmir and how the situation in the territory is safe and "normal" enough for people to visit, settle and invest in. Now all that years of PR work has effectively gone up in smoke with this one attack. Additionally, Modi has been preparing to inaugurate the much-hyped rail link to the Kashmir valley some time this year to trumpet it as his personal achievement in integrating Kashmir to the rest of India, but now the opening of that rail line is likely to get delayed as well as a result of this attack.
Second, the attackers clearly seem to have targeted only men while sparing women and children. Had this attack been staged by the Indian "deep state" (or whatever) to inflame passions and to demonize Kashmiri militancy and Pakistan, it clearly makes no sense for the attackers to display such "chivalry". The attack would have looked even more dastardly and inhuman to the Indians themselves and the outside world had the women and children been gunned down as well.
Thirdly, while India has accused Pakistan of directing the attacks in Kashmir and of infiltrating militants (just as Pakistan accuses India of directing attacks staged by Baloch militants), several of the Pahalgam attackers have been clearly identified by the Indian authorities as native Kashmiris themselves and their houses have been reportedly demolished. Had this been a false flag operation, wouldn't it have made more sense for Indian govt to simply pretend that the attackers were Pakistanis who sneaked across the border?
So, clearly this no "false flag operation" and it is evidently the work of Kashmiri militants. To what extent Pakistan may be involved in directing the attack and what evidence India has to back up that accusation is the question.
In any case, I too consider the beating of war drums as an over-reaction. If Pakistani security establishment has indeed been responsible for ordering the Pahalgam attack through its Kashmiri militant proxies to avenge the Jaffar train hijacking or other militant attacks in Balochistan, India could pay back the favour in the same kind with far less risk and expense. Moreover, I see the unilateral suspension of IWT by the Indian side as an effective, long-term response that might induce the Pakistani establishment to rethink its priorities and introspect whether any long-term enmity with India over Kashmir is serving Pakistan's interest. Though India at present does not have any infrastructure in place to throttle the flow of western rivers in the Indus system (other than a few run-of-the-river hydel projects), the "suspension" of IWT would create an uncertainity about what the Indian govt might choose to do in the future as it no longer considers itself bound to the treaty. (Modi govt has reportedly decided to raise the height of dams in the western rivers and increase their capacity to hold water.)
But then, it must also be noted that they did not actually pull India out of the treaty. The "suspension" serves a warning - a warning that what was considered sacrosanct in the past is no longer so. But the "suspension" is also an offer for back channel dialogue that India can restore its cooperation in IWT if Pakistan agrees to stop this proxy war game in Kashmir once and for all. (And, of course, India could return the favour by withdrawing any support that Pakistan accuses the country of giving Baloch militants.)
There was an article published in NYT couple of days ago by their correspondent in Delhi. According to the article Indian Government gave a brief to foreign diplomats but didn't provide any proof. When asked for the proof they just said it is pattern. To that a diplomat said that you want to start a war based on past pattern?
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone is taking it seriously in Pakistan (or internationally). Also, from what I have read so far India does not have the capability to stop the water.
G. Ali
G Ali,
Delete- "To that a diplomat said that you want to start a war based on past pattern?"
I would second that. It makes no sense to start a mutually destructive war over this. But my expectation (and hope) is that what we are witnessing now is merely posturing to ratchet up pressure on each other and that neither side actually wants war.
- "Also, from what I have read so far India does not have the capability to stop the water."
At present, yes. But then, Pakistan has always expressed concerns about the designs of the "run-of-the-river" hydel projects that India has constructed on the western rivers that has the potential to alter or reduce water flows to Pakistan. Now that Indian govt considers IWT to be in "abeyance", it could possibly modify these hydel projects or build new dams which could give it ability to "throttle" water flows to Pakistan at will. This would create an uncertainity for Pakistani communities downstream who depend on these waters.
Excerpts of NY Times story on Pahalgam:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/27/world/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir.html
In the briefings to diplomats at the foreign ministry, Indian officials have described Pakistan’s past patterns of support for terrorist groups targeting India, diplomatic officials said. The Indian officials have said their investigation is continuing, and made brief references to technical intelligence tying the perpetrators of last week’s attack to Pakistan, including facial recognition data.
The lack of strong evidence offered so far, analysts and diplomats said, pointed to one of two possibilities: that India needs more time to gather information about the terrorist attack before striking Pakistan, or that — in a time of particular chaos on the world stage — it feels little need to justify to anyone the actions it plans to take.
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The lack of clarity may help explain why India has pointed largely to Pakistan’s past support of terrorism in Kashmir to make its case for a military reprisal now. But that approach, before India has laid out its evidence even in private diplomatic discussions, has raised some eyebrows considering the gravity of the escalation. One diplomat privately wondered: Do you want to go to war with a nuclear-armed neighbor based just on past patterns?
Fidato
ReplyDelete@tequieremos
Barkha I’ll tell you with an example why the world doesn’t take India’s allegations seriously:
After the Samjhauta Express bombing in 2007 which killed 68 people, India immediately blamed ISI without an evidence. However, at the first Indo-Pak meeting of the Joint Terror…
https://x.com/tequieremos/status/1916063639834137023
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barkha dutt
@BDUTT
Am truly shocked by the marginal, virtually non coverage of the Pahalgam Terror attack in the American media , ignorance, insularity and self obsession-hence even tougher to take huffy puffy op-eds on India seriously. They just don’t get us.
https://x.com/BDUTT/status/1915554121752735803
The Pahalgam Tragedy...
ReplyDeleteSo the "story" is as follows:
3 militants, armed with weapons and a huge amount of ammunition, cross the world's most militarized border, where there are several waves of barbed wire equipped with electric current, state-of-the-art motion sensors that detect the movement of even a bird or a mouse and immediately give an alarm signal to all the surrounding military posts, a sea of high-resolution security cameras and landmines, watchtowers equipped with snipers 24 hours a day, round-the-clock patrolling by special forces troops and constant drone surveillance... Somehow these 3 militants dodged all this and entered the occupied territory from the free country!!
Now...
The distance from the border to Pahalgam is about 400 kilometers!
There are at least two hundred military check posts in these four hundred kilometers, on every path, every road, every square, every corner... These check posts are equipped with the latest detectors that even if a person has a nail cutter in his pocket, it will be detected in a moment... But these 3 gentlemen, somehow or other, bypassed these hundreds of check posts and reached the resort track.
The climb of this track is hundreds of feet long... Somehow, they hid their guns and all their belongings in their clothes and climbed the entire track...
Dozens of security personnel are deployed at the resort. In their presence, they attacked the tourists... And... After that, they disappeared as if they had worn the Soleimani cap of Umar Ayyar...
Amit Shah and Ajit Doval... The script of this false flag, written by the children of some bhang-fed khoti, is so weak that even a fifth-grade child would not believe it.... I would have written a better script than this... Hopefully, the film that Bollywood will make on this tragedy will be written by a servant's child.
Roomah, well said.
DeleteI was having a discussion with a friend from occupied Kashmir and he said the same thing, that the area is highly fortified so how did incident happen?.
G. Ali
Roomah Rajput,
ReplyDeleteIt would seem you have little idea about the geography of LoC in Kashmir. The border in Kashmir is hard to guard against infiltration with its mountains, ravines, rivers and forests. There are only limited areas that can be fenced, and then there are cross-border tunnels that has often been uncovered by Indian forces from time to time. Low flying drones can deliver weapons and ammunition at night. (Many such have been reportedly shot down by Indian forces in the past.) So, there are still plenty of ways for Pakistan to infiltrate weapons and men into the valley evading the patrols and any surveillance systems.
Also, you don't need a "huge amount of ammunition" or heavy weapons to shoot dead unarmed tourists. All the weapons and ammunition that is need for such an attack can be easily carried by one person or delivered by a drone.
- "Dozens of security personnel are deployed at the resort. In their presence, they attacked the tourists..."
The tourists and other eye-witnesses who were at the site of the attack have confirmed there were no security personnel deployed there. It took time for them to arrive after the attack as the area cannot be reached by road.
Read my earlier post above and see for yourself why your insinuations that this is a "false flag operation" that was staged to blame Pakistan make zero sense. The attack comes at a high cost for Modi's political interests in Kashmir and there are no elections anytime soon in India to justify it. There was no reason for the attackers to display "chivalry" by sparing women and children had they been directed by the Indian security establishment. And several of the attackers have been identified by Indian authorities as native Kashmiri men, not Pakistanis. And now by mentioning the distance of Pahalgam from LoC, you have pointed out to me a fourth reason as well. If all that the Indian government wanted to do was to stage an attack and blame Pakistan, wouldn't it have made more sense to stage it somewhere closer to the LoC where claims of militants sneaking across the border and attacking unsuspecting civilians would have been more believable?
Now there are also reports that another tourist visiting the Betaab valley (also near the site of the attack) a few days earlier had inadvertently captured the visuals of suspected attackers, likely scouting locations to stage the attack.
No one in India denies that there has been an intelligence failure in anticipating this attack, not even the Modi govt. Kashmiri administration reportedly opened the site for tourists without informing the security forces. The fact that the site is located so far from the LoC may have made them downplay chances of an attack there. Also, there are many sleeper cells of militants active in the valley many of whom have sneaked across the LoC both ways for training and staging attacks. Even with its greater patrolling, Indian military has not been able to stop all of it though there have been frequent news reports of security forces battling infiltration attempts.
G Ali,
ReplyDelete- "I was having a discussion with a friend from occupied Kashmir and he said the same thing, that the area is highly fortified so how did incident happen?"
Which area are you referring to? The site of the attack in Baisaran valley? The tourists who escaped the attack have confirmed that there was no deployment of security forces in that area. In fact, the attackers may have chosen that site for precisely the same reason. No one including the state administration may have anticipated an attack to happen there.
Now that Modi govt has reportedly given "operational freedom" to its military to strike as per its convenience, and Pakistan Info minister has talked of "credible intelligence" of an Indian strike in the "next 24-36 hours", I sincerely hope the worst case scenario would be an Indian strike on an empty or disused Pakistani facility (say Gwadar port or airport?) and a Pakistani counter-strike on a similar empty Indian facility so that both sides can claim victory by giving "befitting responses" to each other and then go back to their daily business.
ReplyDelete(And I wish and hope that the Indian side has learnt its lessons from the events of 2019.)
From The Economist:
ReplyDeleteIndia must prove Pakistan’s complicity in the attack in Kashmir
It would then have every right to strike back
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/04/29/india-must-prove-pakistans-complicity-in-the-attack-in-kashmir
Gathering sufficient, credible evidence to "prove" Pakistan's complicity in the Pahalgam attack is going to take time, perhaps many months. I doubt Modi's voterbase has the patience to wait that long. At the moment, striking Pakistan is less about giving a befitting response and more about maintaining Modi's strongman image. To my eyes, Modi government's decision to unilaterally 'suspend' IWT is in itself a sufficient retaliation with potential long-term consequences, but that may not be enough for his voters who wants more immediate, visible responses with more drama. If Modi fails to deliver on those expectations, he will be branded as weak.
DeleteIndian government Bans 4PM YouTube News Channel Citing National Security Threat, Founder Calls It Murder of Democracy
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thequint.com/news/india/4pm-youtube-channel-ban-india-national-security-sanjay-sharma-pahalgam-press-freedom
YouTube news channel '4 PM,' with 7.3 million subscribers, was banned on Tuesday, April 29, following an order issued by the Indian government citing 'national security or public order.'
A message on the 4PM YouTube page now reads: 'This content is currently unavailable in this country due to an order from the government related to national security or public order.'
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'May be Due to Pahalgam Videos'
Speaking to The Quint, Sharma claimed that while no detailed explanation has been provided by the government yet, he suspects that the recent videos on the channel about the Pahalgam attacks may be the reason.
Since the April 22 attack, several videos on the channel have been critical of the government, with some featuring captions like 'Laal kaaleen par Amit Shah ka swaagat. Mritakon ko shraddhanjali dene gaye the ya tamasha banaane?' (Amit Shah welcomed on a red carpet. Was he there to offer condolences to the dead or to put up a show?) and 'Sindhu samjhauta todne ki hawabzi ko lekar phas gaye Modi, Pakistan ko paani kam nahi, zyada mil raha hai' (PM Modi faffing about the Indus water treaty, Pakistan is getting more water, not less)."
Sharma added that he did not receive any prior notice, and the authorities did not flag any specific video as a 'threat to security.'
"We don't make videos against our country. Our nation is our first priority. The only thing we did was ask questions about the Pahalgam attack. Why was there no security at the time of the attack? Why were tourists allowed in Baisaran Valley? These are reasonable questions and should be asked," Sharma told The Quint.
In a statement posted on X, Sharma had earlier called the move an attack on the freedom of the press.
'Under the pretext of national security, the government is trying to curb a strong voice of democracy,' he wrote. 'Modi is not the country. Questioning the government should not be a crime. In a democracy, we have the right to raise our voices.'"
'----
During the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections, the channel was briefly taken down for four to five days, but legal proceedings ultimately ruled in its favor, he said.
"As you can see, this is not the first time this has happened. I have always been a target for the government, and they have repeatedly launched investigations against me. My channel is one of the biggest political commentators, and the fact that we run it from Uttar Pradesh is something the government cannot digest."
Sanjay Sharma, Editor-in-Chief of 4PM
When asked if he plans to take any legal action, Sharma said, "I have written an email to both the Ministry and YouTube, asking which video they deemed to be a security threat. I would have taken corrective action had we been informed, but the government decided to proceed arbitrarily without providing any prior notice."
"We have a population of 140 crores. Shouldn't we question the government if we have any security concerns? Isn't it our responsibility to ask why there wasn't any security in Pahalgam? Asking questions is not a national security threat; it's the opposite of that."
Meanwhile, Sharma has said that the channel will continue operating through its regional platforms and has urged people to subscribe to them.
The ban on 4PM marks the second major digital takedown in 48 hours. This comes a day after the Indian government blocked 16 Pakistani YouTube channels, including Dawn and Geo News, for allegedly spreading false narratives about the Pahalgam terror attack and India's military response.
Earlier, the government also issued a notice to BBC India regarding its 'incorrect' terminology that referred to the Pahalgam terrorists as 'militants.'
Interestingly, they have only blocked the Youtube channels of Pakistani news outlets and have not bothered to block their webpages (yet). The websites of DAWN, Express Tribune etc are still accessible from here for now. Maybe Modi government knows that his countrymen doesn't have the habit of reading news as much as watching them in TV or Youtube these days. Since I only 'read' news and almost never 'watch' them these days, this suits me quite fine.
DeleteModi's hardcore followers can be appealed to reason, only to the extent that hardcore followers of a political Mulla in Islamabad could be appealed to reason. So no point in questioning his incompetency.
ReplyDeleteHowever that incompetency does not exonerate perpetrators and their political and moral backers (you know who they are)
Just read the economist article..a very weak peace, the reason which I'm not subscribed to most of them. It keeps on bashing China (as if the newspaper has a job to do on that front) while forgetting (or being ignorant of) the fact that for Modi and RSS, Pakistan is a cow to be milked by projecting the islamic majority country onto Indian Muslims who are demonized.
ReplyDeleteChine offers no such utility and demonizing china barely helps domestically (which is where their focus is)
Zen: "Modi's hardcore followers can be appealed to reason, only to the extent that hardcore followers of a political Mulla in Islamabad could be appealed to reason"
ReplyDeleteThe big difference is that Modi and his supporters control the levers of power in India, while the "political Mulla in Islamabad" does not run Pakistan.
Zen: "..the fact that for Modi and RSS, Pakistan is a cow to be milked by projecting the islamic majority country onto Indian Muslims who are demonized"
ReplyDeleteModi and his Hindutva saffron gang suffer from Israel envy. They make no secret of the fact that they want to emulate Zionists. Please read: https://www.riazhaq.com/2009/05/indias-israel-envy.html
However, unlike the Indian Muslims and the Palestinian Muslims, Pakistan is not powerless. It has the capacity to engage in tit-for-tat.
As always, Khurram Husain speaks plain sense. The beating of war drums and any likely kinetic action is more of a show for the Indian electorate. The real "strike" against Pakistan has already happened in the form of the unilateral "suspension" of IWT. But I'm not sure the Pakistani establishment is that dumb that they would not have anticipated this move from the Indian side. They would surely know that as the upper-riparian nation India never needed IWT in the first place, and would not care whether the treaty has provisions of unilateral suspension or not. After all, it is effectively a bilateral treaty with the role of the sole external party (WB) being that of a broker/facilitator.
ReplyDelete"Indus water wars"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1907677/indus-water-wars
Interesting:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/climate/pakistan-solar-boom
Zamir
"Modi and his Hindutva saffron gang suffer from Israel envy. They make no secret of the fact that they want to emulate Zionists. Please read: https://www.riazhaq.com/2009/05/indias-israel-envy.html
ReplyDeleteHowever, unlike the Indian Muslims and the Palestinian Muslims, Pakistan is not powerless. It has the capacity to engage in tit-for-tat."
---------
@Riaz
There is no better way to discredit Palestinian cause than waving Pal. flag along with Pakistani flag on the streets of London. It was painful to watch how much it tarnishes a legitimate, secular cause, given the "reputation" of those people protesting there.
In India, support for Palestine has been declining thanks to a generational shift in attitudes and also due to structural pro-Israeli propaganda by Hindutwa.
Zen: "It was painful to watch how much it tarnishes a legitimate, secular cause, given the "reputation" of those people protesting there"
ReplyDeleteThere is an interesting story by a very secular Pakistani writer named Saadat Hasan Manto about the time when he was leaving Mumbai for Lahore.
When Manto decided to leave India amid growing communal violence, his friend Shyam Chadda picked up Manto's beer bottle from his table and said to him: "Saale waise tum bhi konse bade Mussalman ho jo Pakistan ja rahe ho" He responded by saying: "Itna toh hun ke maara ja sakun".
No matter how secular you claim to be, it doesn't cut it with the Islamophobes in India and the West.
They still identify you as Muslims and kill/hurt you in large numbers. It happened in Bosnia. It has also been happening in India and Palestine.
As per my understanding, the Israel-Palestine conflict is fundamentally ethnic, not religious. It is about which ethnicity - Jews or Arabs - have the rights over that land, which is also why there has been many Arab/Palestinian Christian leaders in the resistance against Israeli occupation. Painting it as a "Muslim" cause by some Muslim countries does it great disservice (which, coincidentally, also happens to be the same mistake that Pakistan did in Kashmir by funding jihadist groups like LeT and JeM instead of a secular Kashmiri nationalist resistance).
DeletePakistan Air Force showcases advanced Chinese weapons as tensions escalate with India | South China Morning Post
ReplyDeleteThe PAF releases footage highlighting its ‘potent’ PL-15 missiles and a radar system described as a ‘game-changer’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3308808/pakistan-air-force-showcases-advanced-chinese-weapons-tensions-escalate-india
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has released footage showing it has armed its combat aircraft with long-range Chinese missiles.
The footage, published online on Tuesday comes amid spiralling tensions with India following a terrorist attack in Kashmir last month that killed 26 people. New Delhi has blamed Pakistan for the incident, but Islamabad has denied any links to the attackers.
The three-minute video showed warplanes, including the JF-17 fighter, armed with Chinese-made PL-15 missiles and described them as the “PAF’s potent punch”.
The PL-15, originally developed for the fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter, is China’s most advanced fighter-to-fighter missile and is reported to have an engagement range of 200km to 300km (125-185 miles).
Although other weapons that featured in the video were labelled as being the export version, the PAF did not say
However, military analysts also said Pakistan’s biggest advantage was likely to lie in the Chinese-made active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar system fitted to the JF-17.
Jointly developed by Pakistan and China, the JF-17 is a lightweight, fourth-generation multirole fighter. The planes have featured in previous clashes between the Indian and Pakistani militaries and are confirmed to have shot down an Indian MiG-21 in 2019.
Retired Taiwanese major general Li Cheng-chieh told the Taiwanese broadcaster CTi on Tuesday that the Chinese-made KLJ-7A radar was the “real game-changer” for the JF-17, adding that “situational awareness is the first priority in modern warfare”.
The KLJ-7A can detect fighter-sized targets at 170km and track them at 120km. It can simultaneously monitor 15 targets and engage four.
India’s air force is equipped with Russian MiGs and French Rafale jets, but the Doppler radar fitted to the latter has a lock-on range of 60km and is no match for the system used by the PAF, according to Li.
“The KLJ-7A offers 360-degree coverage and can lock on to threats at more than twice the range of the Rafale’s radar,” Li said.
Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military aviation expert, also said radar and air-to-air missiles were the key elements in modern aerial warfare and said: “This shift allows lightweight platforms like Pakistan’s JF-17 to challenge India’s heavier jets.”
Fu said Pakistan’s advanced Chinese-made equipment could create a clear asymmetric advantage. “If tensions escalate, the side that sees first and fires first may well reshape the balance of power in South Asia’s skies.”
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According to Chinese state news agency Xinhua, which cited an unnamed Pakistani military official, four Indian Rafale fighter jets were detected over the disputed region and later retreated after Pakistan scrambled its own warplanes.
The PAF video also featured an array of other Chinese made weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, early warning aircraft and the J-10CE, another fourth-plus generation multirole fighter.
Data released by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China in 2022 suggested the J-10CE matched the PLA’s J-10C, with a top speed of Mach 1.8, a service ceiling of 18,000 metres (59,000 feet), and a combat radius of 1,240km – extendable to 2,600km with refuelling.
The J-10CE reportedly features 1,200 transmit-receive radar modules – about 50 per cent more than the Rafale – giving it an edge in beyond-visual-range combat.
Retired Air Commodore Khalid Farooq told Pakistan’s Public News channel on Saturday that the J-10CE surpassed the Rafale in key combat areas. “India has just bought Rafale … a good aircraft, but we are ahead in first-look and first-shot capability,” he said.
Just as you can't judge a good camera or automobile based on the spec sheet numbers alone, we'll never really know whether the Chinese or French tech is superior in a battlefield unless there is an actual battle.
DeleteAs for that Rafale encounter incident, I was amused by how the Pakistani official mouthpieces and media described it - that the Rafales 'panicked' on the appearance of PAF jets and retreated. (It would seem both Indian and Pakistani media outlets are on a competing propaganda campaign to show their peoples that the adversary is 'panicking'.) Though the Indian side has not acknowledged such an encounter, it is probable that the Rafales may have been probing Pakistani air defenses and ascertaining response times, or may have been practising diversionary tactics for an attack that will happen elsewhere. Chinese fighter jets often does such maneouvers by flying close to Taiwan, and retreating once Taiwan scrambles its jets.
Vineeth: "As per my understanding, the Israel-Palestine conflict is fundamentally ethnic, not religious"
ReplyDeleteChristian and Jewish Zionists justify the exclusive claim of Jews to Palestine (they call Judea and Samaria) based on the Old Testament of the Bible.
Zionists are "secular" but they use God as their "land agent" who gave them the "promised land", says Professor Avi Shlaim of Oxford University. Jews are God's "chosen people" who are exempt from the rules that apply to non-Jews, according to Israeli author and journalist Gideon Levy. Israel is carrying out "ethnic cleansing … and that may become genocide”, adds Israeli American scholar Omer Bartov. "No, Palestinians did not commit acts of terrorism, Israel did", tweets Miko Peled, an ex IDF soldier and son of a former Israeli general. These few quotes summarize current thoughts of some of the former Zionists.
In reality, Israel is a settler colony like America and Australia, as explained by racist/imperialist Winston Churchill in a speech to the British Parliament:
"I do not admit that the dog in the manger has the final right to the manger, even though he may have lain there for a very long time. I do not admit, for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America, or the black people of Australia"
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5802/ldselect/ldcond/38/3810.htm
Pravin Sawhney ( Indian Defense Analyst, Retired Indian Army Officer)
ReplyDelete@PravinSawhney
Chinese senior analyst Victor Gao has said what I have been saying since August 2019 when the Modi government mindlessly revoked 370 - without any thought to its security implications.
It is no longer binary about India & Pakistan. It is instead triangular matrix of India, China & Pakistan where China & PLA will openly support & help secure Pakistan's sovereignty & standing in the world. Explained further:
1. India cannot win a conventional war with Pakistan since it will have PLA support
2. India nuclear triad will be rendered useless as PLA has enough capabilities to wreck it before use.
These are facts. Indian nationalism & jingoism cannot change the ground realities. My saying this does not make me anti-national but makes the Indian veterans who thump their chests in TV studios, sound stupid to the world - which has changed!
https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1918324103850967205
-------------
𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦
@OopsGuess
CNN India tried to provoke Dr. Victor Gao, ex-translator of Deng Xiaoping, on China’s support for Pakistan.
The response? Calm, firm—and devastatingly clear:
🇨🇳“Never underestimate China’s commitment to Pakistan’s sovereignty.”
🇵🇰“China-Pakistan are all-weather strategic allies. China always stands with Pakistan”
When India demanded Pakistan investigate terror groups, China supported the call.
Now China demands India do the same—with no double standards.
And yes, Beijing knows who’s been stirring the fire behind the scenes. 👀
This is not neutrality.
This is strategic alignment—with Pakistan.
https://x.com/OopsGuess/status/1918276044442005836
The question is, does the Indian side even intend to deliver a kinetic strike against Pakistan despite all this posturing? And if so, what are they waiting for? So far, the Pahalgam attackers haven't been captured or neutralized. Is the Modi govt delaying a strike until he has built up a solid case to justify a strike against Pakistan? Is the Indian military biding its time and intending to deliver a strike whenever Pakistan lowers its guard or least expects a strike?
DeleteWhat if India has no intention or desire to do even a limited kinetic action at all (much less go to war against Pakistan) and all these verbal threats and the din of beating war drums are merely a diversion? National security policies and actions aren't formulated in newsrooms by hyperbolic news anchors or retired military men. It could also be that the "analysts" are chasing the proverbial red herring here, or missing the woods for the trees. After all the drama of national security meets and of supposedly giving carte blanche to the military to strike as per its convenience, Modi jetted off to Kerala to inaugurate a new deep sea port here. He almost seems to have returned to his daily business.
What if India's real retaliation all along has only been the "suspension" of the IWT? As Khurram Husain mentioned in his opinion piece yesterday, the noise of war drums will fade away sooner or later, and then Pakistan will be left with the real task of pressuring India to return to IWT compliance. And what exactly can Pakistan do to make that happen? Can a continuing ban of Pakistani airspace for Indian airliners be a sufficient inducement? Does Pakistan hope to put pressure via international agencies, the Western states or China? If India goes ahead and builds new dams or enhances the capabilities of existing ones on the western rivers, will Pakistan choose to strike the dams, being fully aware that India could retaliate by striking Pakistani dams as well?
Vineeth: "What if India's real retaliation all along has only been the "suspension" of the IWT? As Khurram Husain mentioned in his opinion piece yesterday, the noise of war drums will fade away sooner or later, and then Pakistan will be left with the real task of pressuring India to return to IWT compliance. And what exactly can Pakistan do to make that happen?"
ReplyDeleteIf there's one thing that is guaranteed to lead to nuclear war between India and Pakistan, it is India messing with the water flow to Pakistan. It will be a matter of life and death for Pakistan. And Pakistan's nuclear doctrine calls for the use of nukes if faces an existential threat.
I can not tell you how exactly Pakistan's escalation will play out but I can assure you that the escalation will happen rather quickly if India acts to restrict the water flow in the three western rivers flowing into Pakistan.
Riaz Shahab, the question is whether India has the capability to stop these rivers?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7vjyezypqo
Experts say it's nearly impossible for India to hold back tens of billions of cubic metres of water from the western rivers during high-flow periods. It lacks both the massive storage infrastructure and the extensive canals needed to divert such volumes.
"The infrastructure India has are mostly run-of-the-river hydropower plants that do not need massive storage," said Himanshu Thakkar, a regional water resources expert with the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People.
G. Ali.
Ali: "Experts say it's nearly impossible for India to hold back tens of billions of cubic metres of water from the western rivers during high-flow periods"
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree. But India has the ability to reduce the flow of water to Pakistan, particularly during winter.
Here's John Briscoe, Harvard Professor and water expert on India-Pakistan water dispute:
"Living in Delhi and working in both India and Pakistan, I was struck by a paradox. One country was a vigorous democracy, the other a military regime. But whereas an important part of the Pakistani press regularly reported India's views on the water issue in an objective way, the Indian press never did the same. I never saw a report which gave Indian readers a factual description of the enormous vulnerability of Pakistan, of the way in which India had socked it to Pakistan when filling Baglihar (dam). How could this be, I asked? Because, a journalist colleague in Delhi told me, "when it comes to Kashmir – and the Indus Treaty is considered an integral part of Kashmir -- the ministry of external affairs instructs newspapers on what they can and cannot say, and often tells them explicitly what it is they are to say."
- "I can not tell you how exactly Pakistan's escalation will play out but I can assure you that the escalation will happen rather quickly if India acts to restrict the water flow in the three western rivers flowing into Pakistan."
ReplyDeleteEven if India proceeds to build the necessary infrastructure with the capability to throttle the flow on the western rivers, the restriction of flow - should it happen - would likely be gradual and not sudden. It would be probably meant to act as a slow squeeze to give the Pakistani security establishment time to re-evaluate its priorities with regards to Kashmir and its relations with the eastern neighbour. Perhaps the immediate risk for Pakistan could be the unpredictability of water flows since India may stop sharing hydrological data and warnings especially during periods when there are chances of catastrophic flooding.
This is similar to the predicament that India (and Bangladesh) would likely face with the planned Chinese mega dam on the Tibetan portion of the Brahmaputra as well, though I do not think India would consider it a "life-or-death" issue to go to war against China, since the Brahmaputra flows only through the Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states in the remote north-east and wouldn't have as much of a social or economic impact for the country as the Indus system does in Pakistan.
So, if the impact for Pakistan were to come in the form of a gradually tightening chokehold over years, what would be the threshold beyond which Pakistan would risk military escalation rather than the sensible option of reaching an understanding with India over Kashmir? After all, what India demands from Pakistan (at least publicly) as the pre-condition to return to IWT looks reasonable enough. It isn't asking Pakistan to hand over any territory, but only that it should stop sponsoring militancy in Kashmir (which is anyways something that Pakistan publicly denies doing), and treat the territorial dispute as a strictly bilateral and diplomatic affair. Publicly, there is no loss of face involved for Pakistan in such a deal, and there would be gains as well if India were to reciprocate and withdraw any Indian support to Baloch separatists or TTP (as Pakistan alleges).
Since India faces a long term challenge from China's rise and increasing assertiveness on the northern frontier, even the Hindutva-nationalist Modi govt would know such a "give and take" deal with Pakistan without any territorial concessions is preferrable to the headaches of long-term enmity with the western neighbour.
Riaz Sahab,
ReplyDeleteRegarding "Living in Delhi and working in both India and Pakistan, I was struck by a paradox. One country was a vigorous democracy, the other a military regime....."
Reminds me of Chomsky who said that Indian media is as superficial as US media whereas Pakistani media covers the news in depth.
Amount of propaganda Indians have done from the very beginning would Goeble jealous. That is a why you see Indians giving excuses like "unity in diversity" and "cultural unity".
Pakistani media, on the other hand, is quite open. I believe Urdu media on occasion is even more liberal. I remember reading articles arguing whether the creation of Pakistan was justified.
G. Ali
G Ali,
ReplyDeleteIn case you hadn't heard, RSF's 2025 World Press Freedom Index is out with Pakistan slipping 6 ranks to 158 from last year's ranking of 152, while India rose 8 slots to 151 from last year's 159. But I'm not going to gloat over India's 7 rank lead over Pakistan here, since both rankings are abysmal enough - even more so for India, since it is supposed to be a functioning democracy (even if 'flawed').
https://rsf.org/en/rsf-world-press-freedom-index-2025-economic-fragility-leading-threat-press-freedom
https://rsf.org/en/index
If your experience with Indian media is largely confined to English or Hindi-language TV channels (as I suspect it is), perhaps you are right. But among the print media there are still many that are vocally critical of Modi govt and stays away from official or hyper-nationalist narratives. You could try out newspapers like The Hindu or Indian Express and magazines like The Frontline, The Wire, Caravan etc. My experience with Pakistani media is almost wholly confined to DAWN (which I consider to be of similar journalistic standard to The Hindu in India), and for a country that is essentially considered to be governed by a military-dominated hybrid setup, I would acknowledge that DAWN has indeed shown remarkable courage in standing upto the real power center in Pakistan and questioning its policies and interferences.
As for the "unity in diversity" and "cultural unity" thing, I have already explained that in detail in past comments but it isn't really my fault that you considered it "meaningless mumbo-jumbo" if your mind is more attuned to monolithic identities and black-and-white world-views. I'm sorry to say that things such as "unity in diversity" cannot be explained in a couple of sentences, or as a Yes/No.
Vineeth: "I sincerely hope the worst case scenario would be an Indian strike on an empty or disused Pakistani facility (say Gwadar port or airport?)"
ReplyDeleteTalking about "empty", Pakistan has a much bigger choice of targets in India:
Read this:
Suhasini Haidar
@suhasinih
Empty airports, highways in India's unchecked infrastructure boom, says
@business
Of India’s 140 airports, dozen terminals didn’t see a single passenger between December and March, more than 1/3 averaged less than 5 daily flights in 2024
https://bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-02/ghost-airports-roads-across-india-echo-china-s-past-city-planning-problems?
utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter via
@business
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-02/ghost-airports-roads-across-india-echo-china-s-past-city-planning-problems
India has seen a number of airports become essentially ghost airports, with some terminals not seeing a single passenger for several months. While India has expanded its airport infrastructure significantly, some new or renovated airports struggle to attract sufficient passenger traffic. This is partially due to a mismatch between planned capacity and actual demand, leading to underutilized facilities.
Here's a more detailed look:
1. Underutilized Airports:
Of India's 140 airports, a dozen saw no passengers between December and March.
More than a third of airports averaged fewer than 5 daily flights.
Some airports experienced zero flights on certain days.
2. Reasons for Underutilization:
Lack of Demand:
Some new or renovated airports were built in areas where passenger demand was not sufficient.
Airlines Scaling Back:
Airlines have reduced or suspended operations at some airports due to low passenger traffic.
Misalignment with Infrastructure:
In some cases, airports were built before sufficient road infrastructure was in place to connect them to surrounding areas.
Greenfield Airports Struggle:
Greenfield airports, built on previously undeveloped land, can face challenges attracting traffic, even with world-class facilities.
3. Examples of Underutilized Airports:
Mamnoor Airport: A former major airport in Hyderabad that is now dormant.
Pakyong Airport: A greenfield airport in Sikkim that faced challenges in attracting sufficient passenger traffic.
Pondicherry Airport: Went 8 months without a single scheduled flight in 2024.
1, India had banked heavily on global diplomatic support—but received only generic calls for restraint. From the United States to Russia and the European Union, no major power, not even Israel, directly accused Pakistan. New Delhi was left with little more than international sympathy, not endorsement.
ReplyDelete2. In sharp contrast, Pakistan has received unprecedented diplomatic backing. Countries like China, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and several key Middle Eastern states not only expressed support but offered security guarantees and reaffirmed Pakistan’s sovereignty.
3. India moved too fast in blaming Pakistan. The five individuals allegedly behind the Kashmir terror attack have yet to be apprehended and were reported missing even before the incident. Despite this, Indian authorities pointed fingers at Islamabad within hours.
4. Driven by domestic political pressures, Prime Minister Modi overcommitted. He blamed Pakistan too early and promised swift action to an emotionally charged domestic audience—creating a trap of expectations that’s now proving difficult to manage.
5. Pakistan's full-spectrum military readiness—troop mobilization and tightened air defenses—has strategically cornered India. With no actual retaliation executed yet, India finds itself with limited military and diplomatic options.
6. My assessment: out of desperation, India may resort to a limited missile strike or symbolic military action. It would be a face-saving measure, not a strategic operation.
7. Intense backchannel diplomacy is now underway. The United States and Saudi Arabia are actively engaging both Islamabad and New Delhi. The recent appointment of Gen. Malik, a serving DG ISI, as Pakistan’s National Security Advisor is part of this strategy—leveraging his rapport with Washington and Riyadh to navigate the crisis.
8. Ultimately, the endgame will likely involve offering India some form of diplomatic face-saving exit. If not, this standoff could prolong for months. Meanwhile, Modi remains under serious internal political pressure.
Most of these empty airports in India are small, domestic airports that were built in smaller cities and towns (supposedly to encourage domestic air travel with smaller aircraft), and some older ones that fell into disuse after newer airports were constructed. What makes the case of Gwadar International airport and seaport different is their "international" tag and how high profile its construction and inauguration were.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, my sarcastic comment about striking "empty" infrastructure facilities was in allusion to how the Balakot strike and Pakistan's counter-strike played out, with India bombing a pine forest and Pakistan bombing some open land. So sure, if India bombs Gwadar airport, Pakistan can retaliate by bombing some empty domestic airport in India. Neither strike would likely involve any human casualities, I suppose, and both countries can go back to their daily business after claims of giving "befitting responses".
Respected Vineeth Saar. It is oh so very needful that you say Pakistan merely bombed some open land. Kindly if you will let me redeem this point. Pakistan locked onto one of your MILITARY facilities (a brazen act) to show its reach and then fired a missile some yards away (a de-escalatory act) in a certain ying and yang action. For you to trivialize the above, please see my below.
DeleteNot so fast Saar!
AK Chishti,
ReplyDeleteThe points you raised are all valid when one looks at the current crisis as solely revolving around the question about whether India would deliver a kinetic strike against Pakistan. True, it would appear India was too quick in pointing fingers at Pakistan when the attackers are supposedly still at large and there isn't any direct evidence yet to link the attack to Pakistan - other than an allegation that one of the perpetrators is a former Pakistani paratrooper or commando who subsequently joined LeT. It is also true that if Modi govt had looked for international support in its efforts to corner Pakistan over this terror attack, it did not get what it wanted.
But irrespective of whether India has plans to do any limited strike as a 'face saving' act, Pakistan would still face a bigger question now about how it can convince or pressurize India to return to IWT compliance. Does it hold any cards that would induce Modi govt to change its mind? To what extent can (or will) the West, Arab world, China or international agencies put pressure on India to return to the treaty? Even if Pakistan were to approach the ICJ or PCA and manage to get a favourable ruling, what is the guarantee that India would comply? (After all, China simply chose to ignore the PCA's South China Sea ruling.)
As of now, due to all the noise about the possibility of an Indian attack, or even that of a nuclear war breaking out, scant attention seems to have been given by the international community (and perhaps even Pakistan) to what India could do about the Indus rivers in the coming months and years if it stays out of the treaty. I suspect that is where the larger challenge for Pakistan lies, and not in dealing with any limited Indian military strike.
War As Spectacle: How Indian Media Stages A Battle Before First Bullet
ReplyDeleteBy Rohineet Singh
https://thefridaytimes.com/05-May-2025/war-as-spectacle-how-indian-media-stages-a-battle-before-first-bullet
Indian news channels seem less concerned with informing or sensitising the public, and more invested in inflaming their sentiments.
Even before the armed forces could finalise their inventory for a possible strike along the eastern border, TV channels had already gone full throttle, detailing India’s military strength and presenting hypothetical battle plans. Facts or classified status of the information were never a concern.
Instead of reflecting on events or promoting democratic discourse, this rush to create media narratives only gives Pakistan a reason to argue that it is being scapegoated
Rather than pursuing balanced reporting or demanding accountability, most of India’s media have once again chosen to amplify war rhetoric—stoking public anger, creating fear, and sensationalising an already sensitive situation.
While Pakistan may appear the obvious target, pseudo-nationalist sentiment has turned Indian Muslims and young Kashmiri boys into scapegoats—both in the valley and across the country.
In fact, perhaps the Indian government should consider sending the chiefs of the three armed forces on vacation. They could appoint the likes of Arnab Goswami, Editor-in-Chief of Republic TV, to launch missiles from his Mumbai studio, and Navika Kumar to lead the battalion.
After all, why shed the blood of soldiers on the border when hyper-nationalist journalists have volunteered to take on the war?
Every Indian news channel is filled with provocative headlines. Republic TV aired titles like “Avenge Pahalgam Attack” and even called for a “Final Solution” for Pakistan and Indian Muslims.
According to a detailed post by Indian media watchdog Newslaundry, many newspapers and TV channels have been complicit in this frenzy.
Times Now ran segments proclaiming, “Will gun down every terrorist.” Zee Media explained diplomatic strikes on Pakistan in great detail, boasting about India’s arsenal and the ease with which Pakistan could be wiped from the map. Whether the information was classified or verified never became part of the conversation.
Aaj Tak, part of the India Today group, had anchors yelling dramatic headlines like “Ghati me aatank par akhri war kab?” (When will the final blow on terror in the valley happen?). Its reports included on-ground footage of reporters peeping inside hollow tree trunks—as if conducting reconnaissance for war.
After the Indian government's decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty, news channels screamed that Pakistan would now “die of thirst.” There was no time to verify treaty facts or realise that stopping river flows might flood northern India. But the idea that “India will stop the river and Pakistan will die” was good enough for TRPs. Facts could wait.
Pravin Sawhney
ReplyDelete@PravinSawhney
News that Pakistani hackers have hacked some Indian military websites.
I am not surprised.
1. Remember Pakistan-China iron clad all weather strategic partnership
2. Cyber attacks are non-attributable. They can easily be done by one country with evidence pointing to another.
3. In any case, Pakistan military (PAF) has been working on cyber fires since 2023 - surely with help from the PLA
4. If these cyber attacks increase, assess them as signs of first Salvos of war
5. India's cyber offensive capabilities are negligible since DRDO has never given priority to nanotechnology, which is at the heart of cyber fires.
So, time for Modi government to decide what it wants to do- the initiative has rolled on to the other side!
https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1919378663557972366
I'd pick hacker wars between the two countries over kinetic strikes any day.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile...
"India starts work on hydro projects after suspending treaty with Pakistan, say sources"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1908603/india-starts-work-on-hydro-projects-after-suspending-treaty-with-pakistan-say-sources
"Post Indus treaty hold, India triggers untimely water release from J&K dams"
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/post-indus-treaty-hold-india-triggers-untimely-water-release-from-jk-dams/article69541709.ece/amp/
"Chenab parched after India reduces flows manifold"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.dawn.com/news/1908705/chenab-parched-after-india-reduces-flows-manifold
Nearly a week after its unilateral
suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India on Monday virtually stopped water discharges from the Chenab River into Pakistan without prior notice, reducing flows in the river manifold.
Water flows in the Chenab, recorded at the Marala headworks, decreased from up to 35,000 cusecs on Sunday to about 3,100 cusecs on Monday morning.
“They have almost blocked the River Chenab flows to downstream (Pakistan) after they (Indian authorities) took the decision on Sunday,” a senior official of the Punjab irrigation department confirmed on Monday.
“Currently, they are using our water to fill up their dams/hydropower projects in the Chenab basin. They cannot do this since it is a grave violation of the Indus Water Treaty…,” the official deplored.
According to a document seen by Dawn, India has three major hydropower projects in the Chenab Basin. The first is the 1,000MW Pakal Dul Dam, having an 88,000 acre-feet reservoir storage capacity and a 10km head race tunnel to divert water south.
The second is the Baglihar Dam (88km from Pakal Dul upstream). This is a 900MW power generation plant, having a 321,002 acre-feet reservoir storage along with a spillway capacity of 582,692 cusecs.
The third one is Salal Dam, located 78km from Baglihar, having an installed power generation capacity of 690MW along with 228,000 acre-feet reservoir storage and spillway capacity of 792,012 cusecs.
“From Salal Dam, Marala Barrage (in Pakistan) is situated 76km away. The reason behind the massive reduction in the flows is the filling of these dams, which have a total storage capacity of over 1.2 million acre-feet. And if they keep filling their dams and avert discharging, they (India) may leave us without water for four to five days more,” the official warned.
To a question, he said that if India suddenly started discharging water downstream, there could be a flood-like situation in Chenab, putting the local population at risk.
To another question, he said Marala’s capacity was 1.1 million cusecs, whereas the total storage capacity of India’s dams in the Chenab basin was over 1.3 million acre-feet. “However, they don’t have control over the water inflows to Pakistan in the river from the Jammu-Tavi and Munawar-Tavi distributaries,” the official added.
According to the official, Chenab is very important for Pakistan’s irrigation system, as its canals, including the UCC and BRB canals, irrigate a vast tract of agricultural land in Punjab.
According to the daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), the water inflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded at 5,300 cusecs, whereas there were zero outflows on Monday.
The inflows and outflows in the river at Marala on Sunday were 34,600 and 25,400 cusecs, respectively.
Separately, a meeting of the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority also expressed concerns over the unilateral Indian decision that would cause additional shortages to Kharif crops, already facing an estimated 21pc shortfall.
“…sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in early Kharif season,” said a statement issued by Irsa. The water regulator declared an overall shortage of 21pc for the remaining early Kharif season in case supplies in River Chenab remained normal. However, the situation would be monitored on a daily basis and if the decrease continues, the shortages would be revisited accordingly, Irsa said, adding the late Kharif shortages were expected to be 7pc.
An official told Dawn that Chenab flowed at 35,600 cusecs on Sunday at Marala headwork, but dropped to 3,177 cusecs on Monday morning, showing a reduction of almost 11 times. He said three storages — Baglihar, Dulhasti and Salal — on Chenab in Kashmir had the capacity to stop river flows.
Arifa Noor's opinion piece. Again, plain sense.
ReplyDelete"After the stand-off"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1908773/after-the-stand-off
In the comment columns of our regional language newspapers down here in the south, Modi govt is increasingly being mocked for their continuing bravado and lack of action. The pro-Modi voices seem to be disappointed too and are becoming increasingly silent. I have no idea what is the current mood up in the north.
Rahat Indori will live on in the souls he touched
ReplyDeleteLink between Pahalgam and Indian state elections?
Sarhadon par tanav hai kya / zara pata toh karo chunav hai kiya (Is there tension on the border / Find out if there’s an election round the corner)
Unlike Pakistan, election cycles happen several times a year in India, so a presumption that border tensions must be linked to some election somewhere in India doesn't make sense. Bihar Assembly elections are still 5-6 months away, and unlike the case of Parliament elections that happened immediately after Balakot strikes, local issues are more likely to assume prominence in Bihar elections by Oct/Nov.
DeleteJim Sciutto
ReplyDelete@jimsciutto
New: A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat.
Pakistan claimed earlier Wednesday to have shot down five Indian Air Force jets in retaliation for Indian strikes, including three Rafales. Indian officials are yet to respond to the claim.
The French official told CNN that French authorities were looking into whether more than one Rafale jets were shot down by Pakistan overnight.
https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1920142813498311108
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https://www.eurasiantimes.com/1st-ever-rafale-shootdown-has-india-crashed/
It is worth noting that earlier, Pakistan had claimed that it had jammed four Indian Rafale fighters flying close to the Line of Control (LoC) on the night of April 29-30, forcing them to retreat and make emergency landings. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif claimed that Pakistan jammed Indian Rafale fighters using Chengdu J-10C fighters.
----------------
French Intelligence Official Confirms Indian Rafale Jet Fighter Loss in Combat with Pakistan
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-tourists-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app
A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN today that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat.
---------------
Did Pakistan really shoot down five Indian fighter jets?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/05/07/did-pakistan-really-shoot-down-five-indian-fighter-jets/
In the early hours after the attack, images of previous Indian fighter jet crashes were circulated on Pakistani social media as “proof” of a successful counter-strike. One, from a 2021 crash, showed the smoking tail of a MiG-29 jet.
But reports of jet crashes were soon corroborated from the ground. Local government sources told Reuters that three Indian jets had indeed crashed inside Indian-controlled Kashmir.
The reports mirrored a story in The Hindu, but that was swifty deleted by the newspaper under apparent pressure from the Indian government.
“There is no such on-record official confirmation from India,” the Hindu said as it apologised for what it called an error. “We regret that it created confusion among our readers.”
Residents ‘saw wreckage footage’
Early on Wednesday morning, Dar Yasin, a photojournalist with the Associated Press, raced to the outskirts of Srinagar, the main city in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
He managed to slip past Indian authorities to take pictures of what appears to be the mangled wreckage of a downed fighter jet.
“Locals told me they saw a huge ball of fire emerging from the accident site and the wreckage was burning for…hours,” Mr Yasin told AP from the scene. Several locals also took and shared video of the wreckage on social media, before being ushered away from the scene.
Images of a burned aircraft engine appear to be of the M88 engine typically used in Rafale jets, said Andreas Rupprecht, an expert in Chinese military aviation.
Some 370 miles further south, villagers in Akhali Kurd in the province of Punjab were jolted awake early in the morning by a loud explosion. Scrambling out of bed, they also found the wreckage of an aircraft, The Indian Express reported.
Chinese fighter jet maker's shares soar, French Rafale's maker's shares fall.
ReplyDeletehttps://evrimagaci.org/tpg/chengdu-aircraft-shares-surge-after-paf-downs-indian-jets-345316
Tensions escalate as Pakistan retaliates against Indian airstrikes, impacting global defense stocks.
On May 7, 2025, shares of China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC), the manufacturer behind the JF-17 Thunder and J-10C fighter jets, surged following a dramatic escalation in military tensions between Pakistan and India. The rise in stock prices came after the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) successfully downed multiple Indian military aircraft, including three Rafale jets, amid a backdrop of airstrikes that left 26 civilians dead and injured 46 others in Pakistan.
According to reports, the Indian Air Force launched airstrikes targeting six locations within Pakistan overnight, with some of the strikes hitting mosques. This prompted a swift and powerful military response from Pakistan. The PAF reportedly shot down five Indian aircraft and drones, including the aforementioned Rafales, a MiG-29, and a Sunhui surveillance aircraft. The immediate aftermath of these events saw CAC's stock jump by an impressive 18.18%, reflecting a surge of investor confidence in the performance of the Chinese-made jets utilized by the PAF.
In stark contrast, shares of Dassault Aviation, the French company responsible for manufacturing the Rafale jets, plummeted by 6% in the Varpi stock market. Analysts attributed this downturn to the reported losses suffered by the Indian Air Force’s Rafale fleet during the confrontation. The Rafale jets, celebrated for their advanced capabilities, are among the most sophisticated aircraft in the Indian Air Force’s arsenal, making their loss a significant blow to India's military reputation.
On Tuesday, May 6, Dassault Aviation’s shares fell sharply after Pakistan announced that its air force had shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafales. Pakistani defense sources reported that the destroyed aircraft not only included the Rafales but also a MiG-29, a Su-30, and a surveillance drone. These aircraft had attempted to target Pakistani territories while remaining in Indian airspace, but the PAF successfully tracked and intercepted them.
Despite India's claims of having shot down Pakistani aircraft, Pakistani defense spokesmen dismissed these assertions as baseless and deceptive. One spokesman stated, "No aircraft of ours was downed, nor did we suffer any loss. This is just an attempt to deceive the Indian public to avoid mourning the death of the Rafale." The spokesman emphasized that the PAF had intercepted all Indian aircraft and safely returned all Pakistani planes.
The dramatic events surrounding the airstrikes and subsequent aerial engagements have not only affected stock prices but have also raised questions about the efficacy of India’s military strategy and the reliability of its advanced fighter jets. The outcome of the Rafale jets in this confrontation has been characterized as both a technical failure and a diplomatic embarrassment for India.
ReplyDeleteZhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳
@zhao_dashuai
Pakistan was able to accurately track and destroy air targets inside Indian air space.
This means, the C4ISR capabilities of Pakistan is miles ahead of India. Providing Pakistan with 1 way transparency.
Pakistan saw every step made by India.
C4ISR stands for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.
This capability is crucial for network-centric warfare.
So this victory by Pakistan, is not only a victory of individual weapon systems, it's a victory of the entire Pakistan air warfare system over India.
India is thoroughly outclassed.
https://x.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1919982334948061460
ReplyDeleteArnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
·
12h
As always in times of war, truth is the first casualty. This is the post the Hindu deleted 👇, reporting that "at least three Indian jets" were shot down by Pakistan - which would be a major embarrassment.
It looks like they obviously got pressured to remove it, and now have this half-baked excuse that they did so because "there's no such on-record official information from India", basically confirming their hands are tied to only report information vetted by the government.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1920039920871325945
Irrespective of whether Indian jets were downed or not (they may have been), the strikes have demonstrated the weaknesses of the Pakistani side as well. Pakistan was not able to prevent its territory from being bombed. And the fact that JeM has publicly acknowedged the strike on its centers would also raise questions about why Pakistan is still allowing UN designated terrorist organizations to operate out of its soil despite supposedly outlawing them. When I look at the public reactions from other countries, explicit condemnations of the Indian strike are few, if any. Even China has seemingly expressed only "regret" over the escalation without "condemning" the violation of Pakistan's territorial sovereignity. (Perhaps it has to do with the fact that India chose not to strike any of the Pakistani military installations, but only the centers of known terrorist groups.)
ReplyDeleteNow Pakistan may strike back to settle the scores, but the fact that Modi govt doesn't hesitate to notch up his responses to terror strikes in Kashmir (despite the obvious risks of escalation and retaliation involved) should give the Pakistani security establishment food for thought whether its Kashmir proxy war policy is paying dividends or whether it is more likely to lead both countries to a mutually destructive war at some point.
And then there is the looming spectre of India messing around with Indus waters from now on if it manages to stay out of the treaty.
Is it really worth it?
Vineeth: "Irrespective of whether Indian jets were downed or not (they may have been)"
ReplyDeleteBack in 2019 when Pakistan downed Indian fighter jets and captured a pilot, Modi said, "we acutely felt the absence of Rafale today....desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai" Watch this: https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=7bdOeyuUZY-Lmz81
Then Modi proceeded to spend billions of dollars to acquire Rafale jets hoping that they will establish Indian IAF air superiority over Pakistan PAF.
Pakistan downed not just one but three Rafale fighter jets yesterday. A French intelligence official has confirmed one kill to CNN but said they're investigating other kills as well.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-tourists-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app
This is the first ever instance of downing of an advanced 4.5G French fighter jet in combat. And it is also the first kill by Chinese J-10C in combat.
Vineeth: "Pakistan was not able to prevent its territory from being bombed"
It's easy in this day and age to bomb any country and its territory with standoff weapons. Even Houthis can bomb Israel. So can the Iranians. What is important is the retaliation that comes after it. I have no doubt that Pakistan will retaliate forcefully to this Indian aggression.
Vineeth: "And then there is the looming spectre of India messing around with Indus waters from now on if it manages to stay out of the treaty"
Don't under-estimate Pakistan's ability to severely punish India for it.
"CNN Cites French Intelligence Official Confirming IAF Rafale ‘Was Downed By Pakistan’"
ReplyDeletehttps://m.thewire.in/article/security/cnn-french-official-iaf-rafale-downed-by-pakistan
‘Indian Rafale Shot Down by Pakistan’ French Intelligence Source Tells CNN
https://theaviationist.com/2025/05/07/indian-rafale-shot-down-photos/
If Indian official sources were to confirm that Rafales have indeed been downed, it is sure to raise questions about the effectiveness of the platform, and might even end up winning some Indian orders for F-35 regardless of the costs and strings.
In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if Modi's response next time to a Kashmir terror strike come in the form of ballistic missiles or supersonic cruise missiles instead of jets. Atleast both India and Pakistan might be more or less 'even' there.
ReplyDeleteHina Rabbani Khar
@HinaRKhar
It pains me to say this as someone who as FM of Pakistan in 2011-13 called herself an indefatigable optimist on regional peace. Truth is,India of today is a rogue state that feels it has impunity from intl law, order, norms, humanitarian laws. It is trying to establish that….
https://x.com/HinaRKhar/status/1920210660090155246
Hina Rabbani Khar
@HinaRKhar
..it can cross all red lines of intl law & face no retribution.This type of self delusion is what destroys regional & international peace. I understand that all nations are so embroiled in internal issues that no one thinks of this is as new norm setting of cross border behaviour
https://x.com/HinaRKhar/status/1920210664909332559
Hina Rabbani Khar
@HinaRKhar
Make no mistake. As a country that still believes in intl law & order and the UN charter & UNSC resolutions Pakistan has come to the limit of displaying restraint and responsible behaviour even under exceptional provocation
https://x.com/HinaRKhar/status/1920210669342712156
Hina Rabbani Khar
@HinaRKhar
I think india underestimated Pakistan s rational dialling down the previous provocations for the sake of regional peace & normalcy as a sign of weakness. India has been shown Pakistan s nations resolves & military s capability in the many jets that it has lost.
https://x.com/HinaRKhar/status/1920210677349695842
Hina Rabbani Khar
@HinaRKhar
This is not a war of narratives this is a war of intl law abiding nations that believe in UN Charter against a rogue nation that thinks it can do what it will. India made a miscalculation and I hope the whole region doesn’t have to pay the price of a terrorist state self delusion
"Don't under-estimate Pakistan's ability to severely punish India for it."
ReplyDeleteSure. And then India would up the ante and forcefully retaliate against Pakistan as well. As long as Modi can control the media narrative in India, he wouldn't be too worried about any political fallouts from such setbacks as downed jets, as happened in case of Balakot as well. And where is this cycle of kinetic escalation taking us to? Is it making Pakistan any safer or protecting its interests?
Isn't there a very reasonable step NOT involving any kinetic actions that the Pakistani security establishment can take here to secure the country's interests and avoid such risks of escalation in the future? Kashmir dispute is best left to diplomatic negotiations. Just pull the plug on Kashmir jihad project for good. It should be obvious that it isn't paying any dividends for Pakistan other than further endangering its security and fragile economy.
ReplyDeleteChristopher Clary
@clary_co
Hoffman’s last sentence here is one of my big takeaways: Chinese stuff likely works against pretty high-end Western equipment. That’s not shocking but still kinda a big deal.
https://x.com/clary_co/status/1920135846633538024
Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Okay, looks like I didn't get all the facts. Seems more likely right now that Indian aircraft did not penetrate Pakistani airspace.
Tricky to draw conclusions from this, but either Pakistan's jets had a detection advantage and launched first, or the Indian pilots/aircrafts/weapons were outmatched.
Probably a pretty good indication though that Chinese tech works.
https://x.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1920122231419445498
Vineeth: "Just pull the plug on Kashmir jihad project for good"
ReplyDeleteThis is a false narrative Modi is selling ordinary Indians on. Modi has offered no proof of Pakistan's involvement in Pahalgam. He has clearly failed to persuade anyone outside of India of his allegations.
Making up lies to justify attacks on Pakistan may help him domestically with his Hindutva base now but it will eventually lead to India's ruin.
"This is a false narrative Modi is selling ordinary Indians on. Modi has offered no proof of Pakistan's involvement in Pahalgam. He has clearly failed to persuade anyone outside of India of his allegations."
ReplyDeleteThe way I see it, Pakistan too has clearly failed persuade anyone outside of Pakistan that India's attack is exactly 'unprovoked' or lacks justification. Why have even the Chinese stopped short at expressing "regret" about the Indian strike rather than condemning it outright?
Pakistan had long argued that there is no "proof" that Mumbai attacks were planned and directed from Pakistani soil, or that outfits like LeT and JeM were its creations. So, regardless of what we argue here, one can be sure both the Indian and Pakistani security establishments know the real truth of the matter.
A dogfight between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters will be closely scrutinized by militaries seeking insights that could offe…
ReplyDeleteSource: Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/global-militaries-study-india-pakistan-fighter-jet-battle-2025-05-08/
Pakistani jets shoot down Indian aircraft, US officials say
Fight pits Chinese jets, missiles against European weapons
Global militaries analyzing tactics, kit for future conflicts
Analysts caution that details are still to emerge
May 8 (Reuters) - A dogfight between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters will be closely scrutinized by militaries seeking insights that could offer an edge in future conflicts.
A Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a potential major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.
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The aerial clash is a rare opportunity for militaries to study the performance of pilots, fighter jets and air-to-air missiles in active combat, and use that knowledge to prepare their own air forces for battle.
Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analyzed across the world, including in China and the United States which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region.
One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets.
Social media posts focused on the performance of China's PL-15 air-to-air missile against the Meteor, a radar-guided air-to-air missile produced by European group MBDA (AIR.PA), opens new tab, (BAES.L), opens new tab, (LDOF.MI), opens new tab. There has been no official confirmation these weapons were used.
"Air warfare communities in China, the U.S. and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn't," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"You have arguably China's most capable weapon against the West's most capable weapon, if indeed it was being carried; we don't know that," Barrie said.
The French and Americans would likely be hoping for similar intelligence from India, Barrie said.
"The PL-15 is a big problem. It is something that the U.S. military pays a lot of attention to," a defense industry executive said.
Rafale manufacturer Dassault Aviation (AM.PA), opens new tabdeclined comment and the MBDA consortium (AIR.PA), opens new tab, (BAES.L), opens new tab, (LDOF.MI), opens new tab could not immediately be reached for comment on a French public holiday.
SCANT DETAILS
Western analysts and industry sources said crucial details remained unclear including whether the Meteor was carried and the type and amount of training the pilots had received. Arms firms would also be anxious to separate technical performance from operational factors, analysts said.
"There will be audits of what works and what doesn't work, but I think the other overlay is the proverbial fog of war," said Byron Callan, a Washington-based defense expert and managing partner of Capital Alpha Partners.
U.S. arms companies are getting constant feedback about how their products are working in the war in Ukraine, he said.
"So I absolutely expect the same to be the case with India's European suppliers, and Pakistan and China are probably sharing the same feedback. If the PL-15 is working as advertised or better than expected, the Chinese would like to hear that."
Beijing's equipment gains battlefield recognition as Pakistan air force shoots down rival at 100km
ReplyDeleteby Thomas Harding, security and policy editor covering Westminster politics and European affairs
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/asia/2025/05/09/india-pakistan-aerial-combat-chinese-air-to-air-missiles/
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At least one of the French-supplied advanced Rafale fighters was destroyed by a hypersonic PL-15 missile fired by the Pakistan Air Force from a distance of more than 100km on Wednesday, it has been reported.
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Another key point, also witnessed in the Russian-Ukraine war, is that electronic warfare is becoming vital to battlefield survival, with the Indian aircraft not apparently equipped with a key radar jammer unlike British and US jets.
China has invested heavily in what experts called “a gold standard” Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar capability, which allows it to miniaturise the system and put it inside a 200kg missile. By comparison Raytheon's Phantomstrike missile is miniaturised at 60kg.
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“We've now seen Chinese weapons in action and the big question mark over the Chinese military build-up has been is their stuff actually any good?” said Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye website. “This suggests that it is.”
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Once fired the PL-15E is blasted by a rocket booster to hypersonic speed of Mach 5 (6,200kph) then guided onto target by the J-10C fighter’s radar before, in the closing stages, switching to its own Aesa radar.
It can then hone in with accuracy with a second burst of speed being injected about 10km from target making it extremely difficult to evade.
Radar jammers
However, if the Rafales had been fitted with Aesa, then this would likely have picked up the threat from some distance.
An Aesa radar would have potentially allowed the Rafale to jam the Pakistan fighter and the missile in its closing stages as it allows the jet to create of beam of focused electronic noise.
“It makes it really quick to neutralise a threat from one of these missiles,” said Mr Ripley.
However, even if equipped with Aesa it is questionable whether the Rafale could have dodged the missile, said a leading defence company aviation expert.
While the radar “would help” its defences, missiles such as the PL-15E are so potent that “once you've been locked on by one it's very difficult to get away from the kill zone because those missiles are so quick,” he added.
Furthermore, if the missile detects jamming then it has the ability to quickly jump to another frequency.
French blushes
What is certain is that the Rafale wreckage, found near the Indian city of Bathinda, will be “pored over by the French because they really will want to know what happened,” said Paul Beaver, a military aviation expert.
Further humiliation for the Indians, as well as the French, was that its air force operates a wing of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the warplane’s most advanced version.
The aviation company source called it a “big, big blow to the French” because Rafale had been “touted as a cheap alternative” to the RAF Typhoon and American fighters.
“While pilot training could be part of the problem if you don't have the best equipment, then you are at a disadvantage,” he added.
There is a suggestion that the shoot-downs could be attributed to pilot error although it also proves Pakistan’s aerial combat skills.
“This demonstrates that the Pakistan Air Force is as effective as everyone always thinks it is. It's smaller than India’s but makes up for it in training and motivation,” Mr Beaver said.
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Distant dogfights
The aerial battle also marks the start of a new era of aerial warfare in which the incident showed the “very interesting development in long range missile snipers,” said Mr Ripley.
“Long range air-to-air combat is now a big trend in aerial warfare,” he added. “On the back of this lots of the air forces will be busy trying to revamp their electronic warfare effectiveness trying to neutralise these missiles. It’s a big growth area.”
Ex Indian diplomat Bhadrakumar on recent India-Pakistan clashes:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2025/May/13/operation-sindoor-cold-light-of-reason-through-fog-of-diplomacy
The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership.
Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbours no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life.
Trump’s talks with Hamas and Iran are going well, and he has pacified the Houthis. Even the irascible protagonists in the Ukraine war are currying favour with him. Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are all set to meet on Thursday in Istanbul—a “neutral site”. Beijing is ecstatic that the trade talks in Geneva “will become a new example for China and the US to work hand in hand to inject more stability and positive energy into the world”.
This is the way of the world. We must stop fantasising over newer military doctrines every now and then. Pakistan is a keen observer and adept practitioner. As true as night follows day, Pakistan will soon have a workaround.
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Four days of clashes with Pakistan exposed the faultlines in India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. None of India’s neighbours voiced support for Operation Sindoor; it had a public spat with the European Union; Russia remained largely indifferent, and alongside the Global South, refused to take sides. And after allowing for US mediation, we are now in a sullen mood and denial.
President Donald Trump, in his characteristic way, reacted to our split personality by promising to work with us “to see if, after a ‘thousand years’ (of Hindu-Muslim animosity), a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir”. Trump’s India-Pakistan hyphenation apart, our diplomacy vis-a-vis the US is crumbling. Our ‘middle class’ cannot be happy about it. The paradox is, we are squirming when Trump pays flattering tribute to PM’s “wisdom, and fortitude to fully know and understand that it was time to stop the current aggression”. Indeed, “aggression”—Trump’s choice of word—implied a vehement rejection of the raison d’être of Operation Sindoor.
On Monday, Trump tightened the screws further by disclosing he told India and Pakistan that if they didn’t stop fighting, “there won’t be any trade”. In his words: “We stopped a nuclear conflict. I think it would have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of people would have been killed. I also want to thank VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for their work.”
This unsavoury happening is playing out against the backdrop of the government’s frenetic attempts during the previous 100 days to put India on a path of deeper alignment with the US. The attempts to pamper Trump’s ego, even while stomaching insults, give away unilaterally tangible economic benefits to US companies, get India more integrated with America’s military and tech ecosystems—none of this helped India. Consider the following.