tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post6340561341259491611..comments2024-03-27T15:36:44.737-07:00Comments on Haq's Musings: Modi's India: A Paper Elephant?Riaz Haqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comBlogger78125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-35975569120328501842024-01-20T16:02:16.023-08:002024-01-20T16:02:16.023-08:00‘We Have Narratives but No Proof of Balakot’s Succ...‘We Have Narratives but No Proof of Balakot’s Success’: Former High Commissioner to Pakistan<br /><br />https://thewire.in/diplomacy/watch-we-have-narratives-but-no-proof-of-balakots-success-former-high-commissioner-to-pakistan<br /><br />In an interview to mark the launch of his recently published book Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan, which contains a critical chapter on the Pulwama terrorist attack and India’s retaliatory strike on Balakot, India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan at the time, Ajay Bisaria, has accepted that we only have narratives but no proof of the success of the Balakot strike. He added, “You’ll perhaps never know for sure” of how successful the strike was.<br /><br /><br /><br />In a 35-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Bisaria, while discussing his views, said that the terrorists behind the Pulwama attack of February 2019, the fifth anniversary of which will fall next month, “lucked out in getting an unprotected target in a convoy of vehicles” and thus “met with unexpected success”.<br /><br /><br /><br />Bisaria was asked if he was echoing what Satya Pal Malik, who was the governor of Jammu and Kashmir at the time, told The Wire in an interview last year, when he claimed the terror attack was a result of “incompetence” and “laparwahi” by the Indian system.<br /><br /><br /><br />The former envoy was also asked what proof exists to corroborate the statement made by the foreign secretary of the time, which Bisaria quotes in his book. The statement is that at Balakot, “a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders, and groups of jihadis, who were being trained for fidayeen action, were eliminated.” It was during this part of the discussion that he accepted that we have narratives but not proof of Balakot’s success.<br /><br />Towards the end of the interview, there is a substantial discussion about Pakistan’s response to Balakot, the shooting down of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varathaman’s MiG-21, and why Pakistan chose to hand him back within a couple of days.<br /><br /><br /><br />This part of the interview involves a key question about Biswaria’s view that Pakistan “panicked” as well as the facts and developments he cites in his book which suggest that there was a fair amount of panic on the Indian side, too, including a phone call made by then foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to the then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in the middle of the night (when she woke him up) because she was worried that Pakistan was preparing to use nuclear weapons against India.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-41084247959848612042023-10-21T12:00:55.222-07:002023-10-21T12:00:55.222-07:00The eruption of war in Israel and Gaza is a dark r...The eruption of war in Israel and Gaza is a dark reminder that buried conflicts – like India’s disputes with Pakistan and China – can erupt at any time.<br />By Chietigj Bajpaee<br /><br /><br />https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/the-israel-palestine-conflagration-is-a-cautionary-tale-for-indias-global-ambitions/<br /><br /><br />the most recent developments in the Middle East show how unresolved disputes have a tendency to flare up. In this context, tensions with Pakistan (and to a lesser extent China) remain a constant thorn in India’s global ambitions.<br /><br />--------------<br /><br />Claims of a “new Middle East” have been quashed as the “old Middle East” has returned with a vengeance: The devastating October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel have been followed by unprecedented Israeli attacks on Gaza and the resumption of prolonged Israel-Palestine hostilities. This has also called into question the future of diplomatic initiatives such as the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, the Saudi-Iran resumption of diplomatic relations earlier this year, and efforts to facilitate a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.<br /><br />What does this mean for India? Beyond the Modi government’s unequivocal support for Israel (which is arguably more equivocal at the level of public opinion, given India’s longstanding support for the Palestinian cause) the latest hostilities in the Middle East hold lessons for India’s global ambitions.<br /><br />Recent years have seen India raise its voice on the world stage. India’s G-20 presidency strengthened the country’s credentials as the voice of the Global South. New Delhi is offering Indian solutions to global problems, ranging from climate change and sustainability to digital public infrastructure and global health. India has spearheaded new connectivity initiatives, from its rebranded “Act East” Policy in the East to the India-Middle East-Economic Corridor and I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-U.S.) grouping in the West.<br /><br />Despite the growing polarization of the international system following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India has been courted by all major poles of influence. It is a member of both Western-led initiatives such as the Quad and non-Western initiatives such as the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.<br /><br /><br /><br />Undergirding these developments are India’s impressive achievements, ranging from its space program marking a global first to surpassing the United Kingdom in GDP and surpassing China in population. Projections China in population. Projections hold that India will be the world’s fastest growing major economy in 2023; it is on course to surpass Germany and Japan to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy by the end of this decade. Meanwhile, the Indian government has just announced that it will submit a bid to host the 2036 Olympic games.<br /><br /><br /><br />But the most recent developments in the Middle East show how unresolved disputes have a tendency to flare up. In this context, tensions with Pakistan (and to a lesser extent China) remain a constant thorn in India’s global ambitions.<br /><br />All it would take is another high-profile terrorist attack on India, followed by the mobilization of both countries’ militaries, to erode investor confidence. This would undermine India’s ambitions to emerge as an engine of global growth, a global manufacturing hub and a beneficiary of the push to de-risk or decouple supply chains away from China. It would also challenge the government’s credentials as the “chowkidar” or watchman/protector of India’s interests, just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “Mr. Security” reputation has been tarnished by the recent Hamas attacks. As such, despite India’s success in de-hyphenating its relationship with Pakistan, the unresolved Kashmir dispute and relations with Pakistan remain a key challenge to India’s global ambitions.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-79844806668493932782023-03-23T09:47:19.395-07:002023-03-23T09:47:19.395-07:00Christopher Clary
@clary_co
"The IAF... infor...Christopher Clary<br />@clary_co<br />"The IAF... informed the parliamentary panel that the Russia-Ukraine war affected its supplies so much that it slashed its projected capital expenditure... for the financial year ending March 31, 2024, by nearly a 3rd compared to the previous fiscal year."<br /><br />https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/1638909910179037186?s=20<br /><br />-----------------<br /><br />NEW DELHI, March 23 (Reuters) - Russia is unable to deliver vital defence supplies it had committed to India's military because of the war in Ukraine, the Indian Air Force (IAF) says.<br /><br />https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23/<br /><br />New Delhi has been worried that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 could affect military supplies from India's largest source of defence equipment. The IAF statement is the first official confirmation of such shortfalls.<br /><br />The IAF statement was made to a parliamentiary committee, which published it on its website on Tuesday. An IAF representative told the panel Russia had planned a "major delivery" this year that will not take place.<br /><br />A spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in New Delhi said: "We don’t have information which may confirm the stated."<br /><br />There was no immediate response from Rosoboronexport, which is the Russian government's weapons export arm.<br /><br />The report does not mention specifics of the delivery.<br /><br />The biggest ongoing delivery is the S-400 Triumf air defence system units India bought in 2018 for $5.4 billion. Three of these systems have been delivered and two more are awaited.<br /><br />IAF also depends on Russia for spares for its Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets, the mainstay of the service branch.<br /><br />Russia, and the Soviet Union before it, has been India’s main source of arms and defence equipment for decades.<br /><br />Russia accounted for $8.5 billion of the $18.3 billion India has spent on arms imports since 2017, according to the latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.<br /><br />Over the past two decades, New Delhi has sought to reduce its dependence on Moscow and looked westward towards France, the United States and Israel.<br /><br />It is also pushing Indian companies to produce more at home in collaboration with global players.<br /><br />The IAF also informed the parliamentary panel that the Russia-Ukraine war affected its supplies so much that it slashed its projected capital expenditure on modernisation for the financial year ending March 31, 2024, by nearly a third compared to the previous fiscal year.<br /><br />The air force had projected a capital expenditure of 853 billion rupees ($10.38 billion) for fiscal 2022-23 and cut it to 588 billion rupees ($7.15 billion) in the national budget presented in February.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-64169978934338520062023-02-27T20:39:45.295-08:002023-02-27T20:39:45.295-08:00Pakistanis will never give in to a bully like Indi...Pakistanis will never give in to a bully like India.<br /><br />Pakistan will respond with "Operation Swift Retort" if Modi and his fellow Islamophobes are foolish enough to attack Pakistan again.<br /><br /><br />Listen to your Indian Professor Ashok Swain who tweeted this today:<br /><br /><br />Ashok Swain<br />@ashoswai<br />Never let a regime fool you in the name of nationalism - If you do it once, you have to keep doing it. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idUSKCN1QN00V<br /><br /><br />https://twitter.com/ashoswai/status/1630209788075286528?s=20<br /><br />--------------<br /><br />Satellite images show buildings still standing at Indian bombing site<br /><br />https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idUSKCN1QN00V<br /><br /><br />Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, who has 15 years’ experience in analyzing satellite images of weapons sites and systems, confirmed that the high-resolution satellite picture showed the structures in question.<br /><br />“The high-resolution images don’t show any evidence of bomb damage,” he said. Lewis viewed three other high-resolution Planet Labs pictures of the site taken within hours of the image provided to Reuters.<br /><br />The Indian government has not publicly disclosed what weapons were used in the strike.<br /><br />Government sources told Reuters last week that 12 Mirage 2000 jets carrying 1,000 kg (2,200 lbs) bombs carried out the attack. On Tuesday, a defense official said the aircraft used the 2,000-lb Israeli-made SPICE 2000 glide bomb in the strike.<br /><br />A warhead of that size is meant to destroy hardened targets such as concrete shelters.<br /><br />Lewis and Dave Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation studies who also analyses satellite images, said weapons that large would have caused obvious damage to the structures visible in the picture.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-43675505478037194662023-02-24T18:35:21.326-08:002023-02-24T18:35:21.326-08:00The Wire
@thewire_in
After S. Jaishankar said tha...The Wire<br />@thewire_in<br /><br />After S. Jaishankar said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy, military veterans have accused the Narendra Modi government of having a "defeatist attitude" and "bowing down to a bully".<br /><br />https://thewire.in/security/veterans-criticise-jaishankar-china<br /><br /><br />New Delhi: After external affairs minister S. Jaishankar said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy, military veterans have accused the Narendra Modi government of having a “defeatist attitude” and “bowing down to a bully”.<br /><br />In a podcast with ANI editor-in-chief Smita Prakash on Wednesday, Jaishankar said: “Look, they (China) are the bigger economy. What am I going to do? As a smaller economy, I am going to pick up a fight with the bigger economy? It is not a question of being reactionary, it’s a question of common sense….”<br /><br />He added that India and China have an agreement not to bring large number of troops to the border, and asked if India should violate that agreement.<br /><br />Former Navy chief Arun Prakash, a veteran of the 1971 war, tweeted: “If relative size of economies is seen as arbiter of int’l relations, how come nations like Cuba, N Korea & Iran thumb their noses at the USA or Vietnam at China? India, as a democracy, nuclear weapon state & significant economic & mil power must stand firm against hegemony.”<br /><br /><br /><br />Major General Shail Jha (retired) tweeted: “Mr Jaishankar should know that its not India but China which is picking the fight.”<br /><br /><br /><br />The veteran added: “Economy or no economy, if we bow down to a bully, we are abandoning our self-respect. Is it acceptable? What a shame. And the guy is being hailed as the greatest FM. It’s cowardice.”<br /><br /><br /><br />Speaking to The Telegraph, a former lieutenant general said Jaishankar’s statement was “shocking” and was reminiscent of “unconditional surrender”.<br /><br />“What happened to the so-called muscular nationalism that this government projects in election speeches? Modi’s self-declared muscular nationalism has now capitulated to Chinese aggression and bullying,” the veteran said.<br /><br />Speaking about Chinese intrusions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the veteran told the newspaper that instead of “asking the Chinese troops to retreat”, the “New India under Modiji agreed to create buffer zones within Indian territories in eastern Ladakh as part of the disengagement agreement, thus ceding further territory to China<br /><br /><br /><br />A retired colonel said Jaishankar’s “defeatist statement” spoke volumes about Modi’s China policy. “Where is Mr 56-inch Modi’s muscular nationalism when it comes to China?” the former colonel asked.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-74102327754864134932023-01-25T13:21:09.037-08:002023-01-25T13:21:09.037-08:00Sushma Swaraj "Wasn't Important Player&qu...Sushma Swaraj "Wasn't Important Player": 5 Top Quotes From Mike Pompeo Book<br /><br />https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mike-pompeos-book-never-give-an-inch-5-quotes-claiming-us-stopped-india-pak-nuclear-war-3722522<br /><br />Mike Pompeo's "Never Give an Inch," his memoir of his time as Donald Trump's top diplomat and earlier CIA chief, was published on Tuesday.<br /><br />Former US President Donald Trump's top diplomat Mike Pompeo, in his just-published memoir, has claimed that India and Pakistan came close to nuclear war in 2019 and that US intervention prevented escalation.<br />Here are the top five points Mike Pompeo made his new book:<br />Mr Pompeo claimed he was awakened some time in 2019 to speak to his then Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj who told him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack in the wake of the Balakot surgical strike and India is preparing its own response.<br />"I do not think the world properly knows just how close the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spilling over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019. The truth is, I don't know precisely the answer either; I just know it was too close," Mr Pompeo wrote.<br />The former US official said he spoke to Ms Swaraj who "believed the Pakistanis had begun to prepare their nuclear weapons for a strike. India, he (sic) informed me, was contemplating its own escalation". "I asked him to do nothing and give us a minute to sort things out... No other nation could have done what we did that night to avoid a horrible outcome," he wrote.<br />Mr Pompeo said Pakistan "probably enabled" the attack on security forces in Pulwama, which triggered the Balakot strike, said he spoke to "the actual leader of Pakistan," then army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, in an allusion to the weakness of civilian governments.<br />In comments critical of Sushma Swaraj, Mr Pompeo wrote, "On the Indian side, my original counterpart was not an important player on the Indian foreign policy team. Instead, I worked much more closely with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a close and trusted confidante of Prime Minister Narendra Modi".Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-76783916819800726772023-01-24T17:09:33.361-08:002023-01-24T17:09:33.361-08:00#India, #Pakistan came close to a #nuclear war, cl...#India, #Pakistan came close to a #nuclear war, claims ex US Sec of State Mike Pompeo. His Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj called, told him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack after #Balakot strike in February 2019 & India ready to retaliate<br /><br />https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-came-close-to-a-nuclear-war-claims-former-us-secretary-of-state-in-new-book/article66429650.ece<br /><br /><br />Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has claimed that he was “awakened” to speak to his then Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj who told him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack after the Balakot surgical strike in February 2019 and India is preparing its own escalatory response.<br /><br />In his latest book Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love that hit the stores on Tuesday, Mr. Pompeo says the incident took place when he was in Hanoi for the U.S.-North Korea Summit on February 27-28 and his team worked overnight with both New Delhi and Islamabad to avert this crisis.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-10435217444194654552023-01-02T19:17:54.913-08:002023-01-02T19:17:54.913-08:00Why India and China Are Fighting in the Himalayas
...Why India and China Are Fighting in the Himalayas<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/01/opinion/india-china-himalayas.html<br /><br />By Ajai Shukla<br /><br />Mr. Shukla is a strategic affairs analyst and former Indian Army officer.<br /><br />Soldiers from China and India, nuclear-armed Asian neighbors, have been clashing on their disputed border with an alarming frequency owing to the rise of aggressive nationalisms in President Xi Jinping’s China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s India. Insecurity is also growing in New Delhi and Beijing over intensified construction of border infrastructure by both countries. And mutual suspicion is deepening as China contemplates the increasing strategic cooperation between the United States and India as competition and conflict between Washington and Beijing intensifies.<br /><br />---------------<br /><br />Throughout the 1960s and the ’70s, India’s military, traumatized by China’s comprehensive victory and fearful of setting off another conflagration, deployed well to the rear of the border, which was covered only by long-range patrols. In the early 1980s, the Indian military leadership came to be dominated by a new generation of bolder commanders and New Delhi greenlighted a move forward, much closer to the Line of Actual Control.<br /><br />----------<br /><br />Between 1989 and 2005, the Indian and Chinese sides had 15 meetings and no blood was shed for 30 years. After the Gandhi-Deng meeting, the two sides signed an agreement in 1993 for restraint and joint action on the disputed border whenever Indian and Chinese patrols differed on the alignment of the LAC. It was followed by four more pacts, aimed at keeping the peace on the border.<br /><br />Minor Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in 2008, 2013 and 2014 were resolved through dialogue. A major escalation followed in June 2017 in the Doklam Plateau in the Himalayas, where India, China and Bhutan meet. The Chinese military was building a road into the area, which is claimed by both China and Bhutan.<br /><br />-------------<br /><br />The plateau is close to “Chicken’s Neck,” a narrow corridor of Indian territory that connects mainland India to its northeastern states, an area the size of Oregon, where 45 million people live. India saw the Chinese incursion and construction as a dangerous move toward control over the Doklam Plateau, and it reawakened New Delhi’s fear of China cutting off northeastern India in a war by taking over Chicken’s Neck.<br /><br />------------<br /><br />For New Delhi, China’s new aggressiveness presents a clear dilemma: Should India continue to build strategic and military relations with the United States and the partnership of America, Australia, Japan and India — known as the Quad — even though Beijing has made it clear it sees the Quad as an anti-China grouping? While the Quad, and its more overtly militaristic version, the AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) alliance, constitute a viable deterrent to China in the maritime Indo-Pacific theater, India is the only partner that confronts China on its land border.<br /><br />From New Delhi’s perspective, the Chinese military aggression on the disputed border is the price India is paying for joining hands with the Western alliance. New Delhi takes pains to portray its independence, even turning down an American offer of assistance against China at the time of the 2020 intrusions in Ladakh. New Delhi has restricted Indo-U.S. cooperation to the realm of intelligence and privately asked Washington to lower the rhetoric over China. This is unlikely to change.<br /><br />Within India, Mr. Modi’s strongman image has taken a dent from the confrontation with China. His insistence that India has not lost territory to China provides ammunition to his supporters, but the numbers of his blind supporters have dwindled. The Chinese military’s most recent aggression shows that Beijing continues to fuel the confrontation, and relations between India and China face a negative spiral without a predictable end. The political cost to Mr. Modi, it seems, will eventually be decided in Beijing as much as in New Delhi.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-89785919903993724222022-10-20T17:21:37.714-07:002022-10-20T17:21:37.714-07:00Frank O'Donnell
@frank11285
“Modi laid the fou...Frank O'Donnell<br />@frank11285<br />“Modi laid the foundation stone for the Deesa airfield in Gujarat which will be a forward Air Force base.”<br /><br />https://twitter.com/frank11285/status/1583224834896515073?s=20&t=vJZdCxMsdx3c4vDdPyGlHw<br /><br />----------<br /><br />https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-airbase-coming-up-in-gujarat-near-indo-pak-border-to-emerge-as-effective-centre-for-countrys-security-pm-modi/article66029973.ece<br /><br /><br />PM launches ‘Mission DefSpace’, an ambitious effort to develop innovative solutions for the three Services in the space domain through Indian industry and start-ups<br />In an ambitious effort to develop innovative solutions for the three Services in the space domain through the Indian industry and start-ups, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday launched the ‘Mission DefSpace’ at the ongoing DefExpo. He also released the fourth defence indigenisation list which bars import of 101 items after certain timelines.<br /><br />“Space technology is an example of what security will mean for any strong nation in the future. Various challenges in this area have been reviewed and identified by the three Services. We have to work fast to solve them,” Mr. Modi said. Under Mission Def-Space, 75 challenges are being opened to get innovative solutions, based on the defence requirements in the space domain, the Defence Ministry said.<br /><br />Stating that space technology is shaping new definitions of India’s generous space diplomacy, giving rise to new possibilities, the Prime Minister stated, “Many African countries and many other small countries are benefiting from this.”<br /><br />Real-time access to data<br />There are more than 60 developing countries with whom India is sharing its space science. “The South Asia satellite is an effective example of this. By next year, 10 Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries will also get real-time access to India’s satellite data. Even developed countries like Europe and America are using our satellite data,“ he stated.<br /><br />Explaining the significance, Lt. Gen. A.K. Bhatt (retd.), Director General of the Indian Space Association (ISpA), said this was the first time an opportunity was being given to the private industry in the defence space sector. “Defence space challenges, which have been worked with the Services, Ministry of Defence (MoD), along with private industry and the ISpA, are primarily aimed at making a range of defence applications to enhance the capability of the three Services,” he stated.<br /><br />One senior official explained that the effort is not meant to develop offensive capabilities in space but to build technology enablers for the Services.<br /><br />As part of efforts to boost the domestic defence industry and promote defence exports, the Defence Ministry had earlier promulgated first, second and third Positive Indigenisation Lists, comprising 310 items on August 21, 2020, May 31, 2021 and April 7, 2022 respectively. The items on the lists cannot be imported by the Services and should be sourced from within the country.<br /><br />The fourth list has been prepared by the MoD after several rounds of consultations with all stakeholders, including the industry, the Ministry said in a statement. “It lays special focus on equipment/systems, which are being developed and likely to translate into firm orders in the next five to 10 years,”<br /><br />Like the first three lists, import substitution of ammunition which is a recurring requirement has been given special focus, the Ministry stated.<br /><br />The items listed in the fourth list will provide ample visibility and opportunity to the domestic defence industry for understanding the trend and futuristic needs of the armed forces and create requisite research and development and manufacturing capacity within the country. the Ministry added.<br /><br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-78437072993477294642022-09-27T07:35:57.140-07:002022-09-27T07:35:57.140-07:00Hassan Akbar
@hass_akbr
Shocking coming from a cou...Hassan Akbar<br />@hass_akbr<br />Shocking coming from a country that has been on the receiving end of US generosity what with the CAATSA waiver. Can’t believe India thinks it can dictate US foreign policy while selling Washington baloony about is own independence when it comes to Ukraine.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/hass_akbr/status/1574369893797220353?s=20&t=rC5naFys3GZIi6ol7sNwVQ<br /><br /><br />"You're Not Fooling Anybody...": S Jaishankar On US' F-16 Deal With Pak<br />"It's a relationship that has neither ended up serving Pakistan well nor serving the American interests," S Jaishankar said at an event in Washington<br /><br /><br />https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/youre-not-fooling-anybody-jaishankar-responds-to-us-f-16-package-for-pakistan-101664183691205.html<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-28071979447505743812022-09-27T07:34:23.021-07:002022-09-27T07:34:23.021-07:00Suhasini Haidar
@suhasinih
India, Pakistan both pa...Suhasini Haidar<br />@suhasinih<br />India, Pakistan both partners of U.S. with different points of emphasis: Biden administration<br />"We look to both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values...shared interests." Said State dept spokesperson<br /><br />https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/india-pakistan-both-partners-of-us-with-different-points-of-emphasis-biden-administration/article65940554.ece<br /><br />https://twitter.com/suhasinih/status/1574601690581389313?s=20&t=rC5naFys3GZIi6ol7sNwVQ<br /><br />-----------<br /><br />India and Pakistan are both partners of the U.S. with different points of emphasis, the Biden administration said on September 26, a day after visiting External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar questioned the rationale behind the latest American F-16 security assistance to Islamabad.<br /><br />Referring to the argument made by the U.S. that F-16 sustenance package is to fight terrorism, Mr. Jaishankar had said everybody knows where and against whom F-16 fighter jets are used. "You're not fooling anybody by saying these things," he said in response to a question during an interaction with Indian-Americans.<br /><br />"We don't view our relationship with Pakistan, and on the other hand, we don't view our relationship with India as in relation to one another. These are both partners of ours with different points of emphasis in each," State Department Spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at his daily news conference.<br /><br />"We look to both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values. We do have in many cases shared interests. And the relationship we have with India stands on its own. The relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own," he said.<br /><br /><br /><br />Early this month, the Biden administration approved a $450 million F-16 fighter jet fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan, reversing the decision of the previous Trump administration to suspend military aid to Islamabad for providing safe havens for the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.<br /><br />"We also want to do everything we can to see to it that these neighbours have relations with one another that are as constructive as can be possible. So that's another point of emphasis," Mr. Price said in response to a question.<br /><br />Responding to another question, Mr. Price said it is "not in Pakistan's interest to see instability and violence in Afghanistan".<br /><br />"The support for the people of Afghanistan is something we discuss regularly with our Pakistani partners; our efforts to improve the lives and livelihoods and humanitarian conditions of the Afghan people, and to see to it that the Taliban live up to the commitments that they have made," he added.<br /><br />Pakistan is implicated in many of these same commitments: the counterterrorism commitments, commitments to safe passage, commitments to the citizens of Afghanistan, Mr. Price said. "The unwillingness or the inability on the part of the Taliban to live up to these commitments would have significant implications for Pakistan as well".<br /><br />"So, for that reason, we do share a number of interests with Pakistan regarding its neighbour," Mr. Price said.<br /><br /><br /><br />The United States, he noted, has been intently focused on the devastation that has resulted in the loss of life resulting from the torrential floods that have devastated large areas of Pakistan.<br /><br />"We have provided tens of millions of dollars in relief for these floods. The Secretary today will have additional details on further US assistance for the Pakistani people, in light of this humanitarian emergency that Pakistanis are facing," he added.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-26340512377430162952022-09-13T10:37:47.895-07:002022-09-13T10:37:47.895-07:00EurAsian Times reached out to experts to understan...EurAsian Times reached out to experts to understand if the F-16’s maintenance and American support for this Pakistani aircraft could change the status quo.<br /><br />https://eurasiantimes.com/upgraded-f-16-fighters-for-pakistan-is-indian-air-force-worried/<br /><br /><br /><br />According to IAF Veteran Squadron Leader (retd) Vijainder Thakur, “It is likely that the maintenance support package provided by the US will include upgrades that allow PAF F-16s to carry more advanced weapons and sensors. While I do not believe that the package would significantly alter the balance of power, it will most certainly allow the PAF to maintain its deterrence capability against the IAF.”<br /><br />There has also been an overarching debate regarding F-16s vs. Rafales in the region. The acquisition of Rafales was seen in Pakistan as an attempt to challenge the F-16’s might and deter the PAF.<br /><br />General Kizer Tufar, a Pakistani veteran, had said, “IAF aircraft cannot be compared with the combination used by the Pakistani Air Force: F-16 and AIM-120 missiles. The Indian Air Force is aware of these restrictions, so they decided to place an order to buy the Rafale from France.”<br /><br /><br />Indian Air Force Rafale Fighter Jet<br />Rafale fighter jet is a twin-engine, 4.5th generation fighter aircraft that can operate from ground bases and aircraft carriers. On the other hand, the US-based Lockheed Martin developed F-16, a fourth-generation, single-engine supersonic multirole fighter aircraft. The two aircraft are almost similar regarding the dimension of length.<br /><br />Given that they can carry more armaments than the F-16s, the Rafales would have an advantage in an encounter between the two. However, the F-16s have a slight advantage over the Rafales regarding striking power. Rafales only have a range of 3700 kilometers compared to the F-16s’ 4220 kilometers.<br /><br />“The US has always relied on Pakistan due to its strategic location as it is the gateway to Afghanistan or the Middle East and Central Asian republics. Its importance as a launch pad can’t be reduced – which Pakistan also is equally aware of. And, in the US, a strong pro-Pakistan lobby benefits due to various deals and aid to Pakistan – they get paid – by corrupt Pakistani officials and Generals.<br /><br />The present F-16 deal is also to be looked at from that angle. Overall it will not have much impact on IAF except for irritant value. Numerically and qualitatively, IAF is much better placed,” Air Vice Marshal Pranay Sinha (retd) told EurAsian Times.<br /><br />The US decision comes when arms sales worldwide are booming owing to newer threat perceptions. Western officials have debated how to wean India off its dependence on Russian armament. However, India has refused to join the West in isolating Russia.<br /><br />Some experts contend that the US decision is based on a business requirement. According to Group Captain Johnson Chacko, KC (retd), “Arms transactions worldwide are business oriented. Money matters. The US has supplied F-16s to Pakistan, so it is honor bound to maintain them.<br /><br />In addition, the arms industry gets money while Pakistan holds the debt. We cannot reduce it to the F16 vs. Rafale debate, as the men behind the machines matter.<br /><br />We demonstrated that against USAF in the first COPE India exercise held at Gwalior, where USAF F-15s were overwhelmed by what they felt was inferior Russian aircraft flown by IAF.”<br /><br />It is pertinent to mention that the Indian Air Force has been undertaking a rapid modernization drive. It is dominated by Russian heavy-duty fighters like the Su-30MKI and MiG-29s, combat-hardened Mirage 2000s and Jaguars, and Light Aircraft like the Tejas, besides the cutting-edge Rafale fighters.<br /><br />J-10C<br />A Chinese J-10C. (via Twitter)<br />The Pakistan Air Force, on the other hand, is dominated by the F-16s, the brand-new J-10Cs, the JF-17, and Mirages, among others.<br /><br />Before the J-10C fighters were transferred to Pakistan by China earlier this year, military analysts asserted that the purchase underlined the need to counter India’s Rafale aircraft and provide a strong deterrent against the Indian Air Force.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-72008198314205027292022-08-14T07:35:57.763-07:002022-08-14T07:35:57.763-07:00News From India:
New Pakistani radars, including...News From India:<br /><br /><br />New Pakistani radars, including one being installed now, close to Balakot<br />Pakistan is strengthening its radar system. A TPS-77 multi role radar, that can spot not just fighters, but drones, and ballistic missiles is being installed at Cherat, about 200 from Balakot, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan has decided to place a dozen radars, in strategically significant locations, mostly in Punjab and also, in Sindh.<br /><br />Srinjoy Chowdhury<br /><br /><br />https://www.timesnownews.com/india/new-pakistani-radars-including-one-being-installed-now-close-to-balakot-article-90744616<br /><br />Three years after Balakot, the attack by the Indian Air Force on a Jaish-e-Mohammed terror camp, Pakistan is strengthening its radar system. In February 2019, Indian fighters entered Pakistan airspace, flew all the way to Balakot, dropped its bombs on the terror camp and returned with the PAF nowhere in sight.<br />A TPS-77 multi role radar, that can spot not just fighters, but drones, and ballistic missiles is being installed at Cherat, about 200 from Balakot, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the strikes happened. Installing the Lockheed Martin radar at Cherat is part of a plan to fit these radars all over the country. Pakistan has decided to place a dozen other radars, in strategically significant locations, mostly in Punjab and also, in Sindh. some are already functional.<br /><br />* Kamra, known for its Pakistan Air Force base in Punjab.<br />* Arifwala in Pakpattan, also in Punjab<br />* Malir, near Karachi, Pakistan's largest city in Sindh.<br /><br />* Dera Nawab Khan in Punjab.<br />* Deosai near Skardu, in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, specifically in the Gilgit Baltistan area. Skardu, of course, is an important air base.<br />* Mangla, where an army corps HQ is located in the Jhelum district.<br />* Pasrur in the Sialkot district of Punjab. Sialkot, is also a big city.<br />* Chunian, near Kasur in Punjab.<br />* Bholari, where there is a Pakistan Air Force base. It is in Sindh, not far from Karachi.<br />* Pano Aqil in Sukkur, Punjab, where a cantonment is located.<br />* Badin, in Sindh and,<br />* Bhawalpur, where the Army's 31 Corps HQ is located.<br />Of the 13, eight have already been delivered and five more are due.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-26903894833737567482022-06-22T07:30:48.982-07:002022-06-22T07:30:48.982-07:00Fidato
@tequieremos
..Bihar, Bengal and Gujarat pr...Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />..Bihar, Bengal and Gujarat provided just 14% of the recruitment albiet their total number is 30% of India's population. After the Agnipath Scheme, this imbalance will further expand. The annual intake into Army is about 65 thousand soldiers per year. It will increase to..<br /><br />https://twitter.com/tequieremos/status/1539589175003185152?s=20&t=qrOiXQ9qhCVQoA2XRAzV5Q<br /><br /><br /><br />Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />..about 1-1.5 lakhs per year as per this model. Resultantly, the Indian Army will be Northern States heavy since the vacancies from North East, Gujrat, and Goa get undersubscribed and while Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab get oversubscribed.<br /><br /><br /><br />Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />2. Another important issue is training. For example, there are two Artillery Centres in India with a maximum capacity of 4000 soldiers in each. The new scheme will double the number of trainees. Gunners normally go through six months of basic military training and six months...<br /><br /><br />Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />..as a Gunner. Agniveers would be deployed in field after six months of training. In such a time constraint environment, the training centres would yield a highly incompetent lot.<br /><br />Also, why would an Agniveer give his life when he has to retire after 4 years with no pension?<br /><br /><br />Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />3. These Agniveers will be thrown in a society where over 45 crore Indians have stopped looking for jobs. Muslims are facing an impending genocide. Three years into Modi’s first term, a research report found that 97% of all cow-related violence in India came after he was electe<br /><br /><br /><br />Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />We already know that the RSS, which is the largest Neo Nazi group have a strong belief that Muslims and other minorities are an ‘Internal threat’ to India. RSS has an estimated 1.5 – 2 million regular participants in its nearly 57,000 shakhas across 36,293 locations nationwide...<br /><br />Fidato<br />@tequieremos<br />..along with an armed dedicated militia of 600,000 Now it's militia will have well trained Agniveer soldiers to wreck havoc against the minorities.<br /><br />@MahendraForBJP<br />has already made his party's intentions clear. He's asking Agniveers to defend India against Adharmis.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-53443361872835168102022-06-19T16:40:10.940-07:002022-06-19T16:40:10.940-07:00Thousands ransack #Indian #railway station as #pro...Thousands ransack #Indian #railway station as #protests intensify over #India’s #military hiring plan. In a bid to contain the outrage, #Modi gov't has announced concessions for those who will serve under the #AgnipathScheme. #BJP #Hindutva #Islamophobia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/19/thousands-ransack-railway-station-as-protests-intensify-over-indias-military-hiring-plan?CMP=share_btn_tw<br /><br />Protesters in India’s eastern state of Bihar have damaged public property and ransacked offices in a railway station, expressing outrage at a new military recruitment plan and demanding the government reverse course.<br /><br />The government of the prime minister, Narendra Modi, has introduced a scheme called Agnipath, or “path of fire”, designed to bring more people into the military on four-year contracts to lower the average age of India’s 1.38 million-strong armed forces.<br /><br />A top military general, Lieut Gen Anil Puri, told the NDTV news channel that the aim of the plan was to make the military more modern and effective.<br /><br />Analysts said the new scheme would also help cut burgeoning pension costs, but opponents believe it would limit opportunities for permanent jobs in the defence forces, with implications for salaries, pensions and other benefits.<br /><br />One person was killed this week and more than a dozen have been injured in a series of protests in some regions of the country against the new scheme.<br /><br />Thousands of young men attacked train coaches, burned tyres and clashed with officials at a railway station in Bihar, one of India’s poorest states, on Saturday.<br /><br />Authorities cancelled 369 trains nationwide, many of them running through areas witnessing unrest.<br /><br />Sanjay Singh, a senior police official overseeing law and order in the state, said at least 12 protesters were arrested and at least four policemen injured in clashes.<br /><br />“Around 2,000 to 2,500 people entered the Masaurhi railway station and attacked the forces,” he said.<br /><br />In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, police arrested at least 250 people under what are called preventative arrests. Some demonstrators accused the police of using excessive force.<br /><br />In a bid to contain the outrage, the federal government on Saturday announced concessions for those who will serve under the scheme.<br /><br />The federal home ministry announced it would reserve 10% of vacancies in the paramilitary forces and Assam Rifles, a unit in the Indian army, for those who have passed out of the army after the four-year period mandated in the scheme.<br /><br />The defence ministry stated it would reserve 10% of its vacancies for those who have completed the scheme.<br /><br />“Perhaps because it is a new scheme, people have misunderstood it, but we have been discussing this with everyone, including ex-servicemen,” the defence minister, Rajnath Singh, told a conference on Saturday.<br /><br />The scheme calls for retaining 25% of the recruited soldiers after four years of service, with the rest getting priority for other jobs, such as with the state police.<br /><br />The navy chief said on Friday the protests were unexpected and probably the result of misinformation about the new system.<br /><br />“I didn’t anticipate any protests like this,” Admiral R Hari Kumar told ANI. “It is the single biggest human resource management transformation that has ever happened in the Indian military.”<br /><br />The scheme is not open for women in combat roles and there are no current plans to change this.<br /><br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-24356432492497756502022-06-18T08:05:13.541-07:002022-06-18T08:05:13.541-07:00The policy has neither been theoretically drafted ...The policy has neither been theoretically drafted nor applied as a pilot project which brings uncertainty in its consequences post-implementation.<br />Delayed consequences might be seen at operational levels of the Military especially the Navy and the Air Force which requires specialization in various areas.<br />The training infrastructure, administrative working, etc. might be insufficient currently to the handle retention, release and recruitment of huge number of young soldiers.<br />In the Agnipath pral, the class-based recruitment has been replaced with an all-India all-class recruitment. The reasons for this will strike at the core of the organizational management, leadership structures and operating philosophy of the Indian Army.<br />Replacing the social identity of the soldiers with a purely professional identity would bring its own challenges in a tradition-bound army.<br />There will be major problems in training, integrating and deploying soldiers with different levels of experience and motivations.<br />The criterion of identifying the 25% short-term contracted soldiers to be retained could result in unhealthy competition.<br />An organisation that depends on trust, camaraderie and esprit de corps could end up grappling with rivalries and jealousies amongst winners and losers, especially in their final year of the contract.<br />just like the OROP issue, this could become a politically attractive demand for longer tenures and pensions to be picked up by the Opposition parties. Over time, this will lead to the salary and pension budget creeping back up again.<br />Political, and social implications<br />The Agnipath scheme also does away with the idea of a State-wise quota for recruitment into the Army, based on the Recruitable Male Population of that State which was implemented from 1966. This prevented an imbalanced army, which was dominated by any one State, linguistic community or ethnicity.<br />Academic research shows that the high level of ethnic imbalance has been associated with severe problems of democracy and an increased likelihood of civil war.<br />Coupled with this is the lack of hope in India’s economy, where over 45 crore Indians have stopped looking for jobs, there are<br />high levels of unemployment and underemployment.<br />It is to this mix that these few thousand young men who have been trained in inflicting organized violence will be thrown up every year.<br />From erstwhile Yugoslavia to Rwanda — and closer home, during Partition — there are numerous examples of demobilised soldiers leading to increased violence against minorities.<br />Way Forward<br />In India, the Indian Army has so far provided salary, uniform and prestige, an inheritance of the British who took care of the living conditions, facilities for the soldiers’ families, and postretirement benefits and rewards, such as grants of land. A short-term contractual soldier, without earning pension, will be seen as doing jobs after his military service that are not seen to be commensurate in status and prestige with the profession of honour. It will reduce the motivation of those joining on short-term contracts while diminishing the “honour” of a profession which places extraordinary demands on young men. The Government’s yearning for financial savings runs the risk of reducing the honour of a profession, the stability of a society and the safety of a country.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-43804878057018033012022-06-18T08:04:31.725-07:002022-06-18T08:04:31.725-07:00Financial motivations
The OROP demand became trick...Financial motivations<br />The OROP demand became tricky to fulfil but it was officially instituted in November 2015 for more than 25 lakh defence pensioners.<br />It came with an immediate annual financial implication of ₹7,123.38 crore and the actual arrears from July 1, 2014 to December 31, 2015 were ₹10,392.35 crore.<br />The financial burden increased cumulatively over time and has substantially increased the budgetary expenditure on defence pensions.<br />In the current financial year, ₹1,19,696 crore has been budgeted for pensions, along with another ₹1,63,453 crore for salaries —that is 54% of the allocation for the Defence Ministry.<br />It has been argued that the savings in the pensions bill — which will show up on the books only after a couple of decades — would be directed towards the modernisation of defence forces.<br />The armed forces do not have that kind of time available to them to postpone their already long-delayed modernization.<br />The Indian Air Force is already down to 30 squadrons of fighter jets against the 42 squadrons it needs, and the Indian Navy is at 130 ships when its vision was to be a 200 ship navy; the Indian Army is already short of 1,00,000 soldiers.<br />The announcement of the Agniveer scheme is an implicit acknowledgement that the Indian the economy is incapable of supporting the armed forces that India needs.<br />It faces an active military threat from two adversaries, China and Pakistan, and the internal security challenges in Kashmir and the northeastern States.<br />Hence we must not resort to shrinking the military and rather must expand the economy to support the military and its needs.<br />Damaging consequencesRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-31685877861814527822022-06-18T07:53:25.988-07:002022-06-18T07:53:25.988-07:00Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
The motivations for bri...Sushant Singh<br />@SushantSin<br /><br />The motivations for bringing in the short-term contractual recruitment of (Indian) soldiers are financial but its consequences will be borne by the military and the society. Agnipath scheme belies any understanding of soldiering as a profession of honour. My piece in today's<br />@the_hindu<br /><br /><br />https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1538000288061067264?s=20&t=6pCpevB_ZI6AC0tolj3KqARiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-48957279351771465672022-06-11T07:05:55.060-07:002022-06-11T07:05:55.060-07:00AaDiL Jillani 🇵🇰
@Aadil_Jillani
Military Pension...AaDiL Jillani 🇵🇰<br />@Aadil_Jillani<br />Military Pension should be the part of Defense Budget, Effectively, its 2nd biggest Expense (Rs1918 bln) after Interest payments in Current Expenditure, Eats up 27.37% of Tax Revenues needs to "Rationalize" for creating Fiscal Space at the Centre!<br /><br />https://twitter.com/Aadil_Jillani/status/1535614986608836609?s=20&t=y-XpZaW5OkxRDpBFIf2xnQ<br /><br />---------------<br /><br /><br />@Sabbandkardo<br />military pension is almost 3 times civilian pension for fed govt<br /><br />https://twitter.com/Sabbandkardo/status/1535307827971072002?s=20&t=y-XpZaW5OkxRDpBFIf2xnQ<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-56936236877588048742022-06-10T15:53:06.375-07:002022-06-10T15:53:06.375-07:00#Pakistan boosts #defense budget by nearly 6% in P...#Pakistan boosts #defense budget by nearly 6% in PKR to $7.19 billion in FY 2023. Official figure for #military expenditures amounts to about 2.2% of its gross domestic product — a drop from 2.45% of its #GDP compared to the fiscal 2021-2022 time frame.<br />https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/06/10/pakistan-boosts-defense-budget-by-nearly-6/<br /><br />Though mainly covering salary increases, some of the extra money is earmarked for infrastructure such as the continued development of Jinnah Naval Base in Ormara, the Navy’s main operational base, and a naval air base in Turbat.<br /><br />Official figures state the 83 billion rupee (U.S. $412 million) increase pushes the defense budget up to nearly 1.45 trillion rupees (U.S. $7.19 billion). That implies the 2021 defense budget was about $7.49 billion.<br /><br />The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Sweden-based think think, found that Pakistan’s military-related expenditures for 2021 came to $11.3 billion. However, the difference could come down to how the procurement budget is created.<br /><br />The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Sweden-based think think, found that Pakistan’s military-related expenditures for 2021 came to $11.3 billion (including pensions). However, the difference could come down to how the procurement budget is created.<br /><br /><br />Amid the ongoing threat of domestic terrorism and the need to maintain a credible deterrent against India, the fate of Pakistan’s economy does not bode well, according to Pakistan expert Claude Rakisits, who teaches at the Australian National University.<br /><br />“Pakistan’s economic situation is in dire straits. This makes it difficult for the government to buy new hardware or even plan ahead for new acquisitions,” he said.<br /><br />Brian Cloughley, an analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, has tracked developments in Pakistan for decades, and he doubts the government’s fiscal approach will be different from previous ones that failed to address underlying issues, including the country’s elite effectively ruling for their own benefit, leading to Pakistan’s cycle of economic woes.<br /><br /><br />“It is likely, however, that there will be announcement of deferment of expenditure plans for at least some acquisitions, if only to try to convince the [World Bank and International Monetary Fund] that their present, fairly benevolent policy on Pakistan should be maintained,” he said.<br /><br />But he also believes Pakistan can likely rely on its allies and other friendly nations to carry the load. “The Chinese and the Saudis will probably continue to support Pakistan’s military posture and plans, and the current — most serious — economic crisis will have little effect on the military overall.”<br /><br />Rakisits agreed that Pakistan might rely on China, although Beijing will likely step in for its own benefit.<br /><br />“China has a vital interest in ensuring that not only does Pakistan’s economic situation not get worse, which could threaten the overall stability of the country and the viability of its CPEC project, but that it is in a position to maintain its defense capability,” Rakisits said, referring to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is meant to improve infrastructure to strengthen trade between the two countries.<br /><br />“Accordingly, It’s almost certain that Beijing will assist Pakistan financially in one way or another, especially in light of the West’s increased interest in selling military hardware to India,” he added.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-50728229910351036162022-04-20T08:06:29.885-07:002022-04-20T08:06:29.885-07:00The Army in Indian Military Strategy: Rethink Doct...The Army in Indian Military Strategy: Rethink Doctrine or Risk Irrelevance<br />ARZAN TARAPORE<br /><br />https://carnegieindia.org/2020/08/10/army-in-indian-military-strategy-rethink-doctrine-or-risk-irrelevance-pub-82426<br /><br /><br />Modern India’s military strategy has been dominated by ground forces managing threats on its northern continental periphery. Air power has traditionally been used only as a supporting adjunct to land power, rather than an independent strategic tool; and India has not projected significant maritime force despite a notable history of seafaring and influence across the Indian Ocean region. Historically, there were sound reasons for this emphasis on ground forces. Wedged between two powerful and hostile neighbors, Pakistan and China, independent India fought five land wars along its northern land borders. Its most formative modern episodes were entirely or almost entirely ground-force actions. This includes its most searing defeat against China in 1962 and its most celebrated victory, in East Pakistan in 1971. India’s most immediate security threats today, from cross-border terrorism in the northern territories of Jammu and Kashmir to periodic incursions across its disputed boundary with China, are managed by the army and ground-force paramilitaries. To handle all this, the army attracts an ever-growing share of the military budget and resources. Despite its potential as a hybrid continental-maritime power, India’s security policy is dominated by ground forces.<br /><br />-------<br /><br />The orthodox offensive doctrine took center stage by the mid-1960s, propelled by two formative experiences that taught the Indian military the limits of the British Raj’s frontier defense doctrine.2 The first Kashmir war, in 1947–48, was a light-infantry conflict to gain control of the disputed territory.3 India quickly seized control of Srinagar and the Kashmir Valley, with most fighting thereafter occurring in the surrounding mountainous terrain. This reduced the scope for using combined arms, let alone other services. Air power did, however, play a vital—if not decisive—role in the war, when India used an air assault on Srinagar airport to launch its initial deployment into Kashmir. This allowed Indian forces to seize the initiative, establish and reinforce their military presence in the vital valley before Pakistan could, and resupply its lead forces. Without that initial use of air power, India would not have been able to make its timely intervention or sustain its operations in Kashmir. The bulk of the subsequent inconclusive fighting was done by India’s newly inherited ground forces. They secured ground lines of communication through Jammu to sustain the fight in the following months and pressed out of the valley to fight for control in the mountains until a ceasefire suspended hostilities.<br /><br />-----<br />In response to the Cold Start doctrine, Pakistan has made tactical nuclear weapons an integral part of its military strategy and consistently warns that it will not hesitate to escalate a crisis past the nuclear threshold. Perhaps to preclude the possibility of a Pakistani nuclear attack, Indian strategists and planners may be developing a counterforce option to preemptively defang Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.63 A counterforce element of a cost imposition strategy—a contentious but plausible supposition—would multiply the risks already inherent in its orthodox offensive doctrine, especially while India’s counterforce capabilities are still under development and unproven. In response to India’s growing military presence near the Line of Actual Control, China has reinforced its border deployments and periodically seeks to revise the territorial status quo with provocative incursions, as it did most recently from April 2020.64<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-116676647424463452022-04-19T10:29:21.900-07:002022-04-19T10:29:21.900-07:00Should India insist on large warships after sinkin...Should India insist on large warships after sinking of Russia’s Moskva?<br /><br />Moskva rests at the bottom of the Black Sea and its loss could animate India’s maritime debate involving large naval ships. But the warning sign that must hang over it, is that its relevance to the Indian context can be different.<br /><br />https://theprint.in/opinion/should-india-insist-on-large-warships-after-sinking-of-russias-moskva-the-lesson-not-to-take/921688/<br /><br />The loss of a key surface naval asset to cruise missiles provides fodder to buttress some arguments in an ongoing global debate within maritime powers. The debate is an offshoot of a larger debate on the survivability of large platforms like aircraft carriers due to their vulnerability to precision-guided munitions like cruise missiles. It is a debate that is particularly relevant to India and one that continues to animate the Indian Navy’s insistence on the continued relevance of the aircraft carrier.<br /><br />Technological advancements in surveillance capabilities that are networked with missiles based on air, land, and sea platforms have certainly increased the vulnerability of surface naval assets. Accuracy is significantly improved by using a combination of Global Positioning Signals (GPS), laser guidance and inertial navigation systems. Simultaneously, the development of countermeasures also reduces the vulnerability factor. It is a cat-and-mouse game in technology development that mostly tends to favour the attacker over the defender. The obvious route for the attacker is to overwhelm the defender’s ability by firing a large number of missiles simultaneously on the same target. Also, the pace of development and cost of missiles that can penetrate the defender’s missile shield is quicker and cheaper than developing and fielding missile defences.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-25119513357723698122022-03-25T11:26:16.802-07:002022-03-25T11:26:16.802-07:00#Pakistan #PAF to Unveil Locally Made #AESA radar ...#Pakistan #PAF to Unveil Locally Made #AESA radar sending radio waves of multiple frequencies in different directions without moving the antenna. Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) #radar to be deployed in both ground-based and airborne roles. https://propakistani.pk/2022/03/24/paf-to-unveil-locally-made-stealth-radars-for-fighter-jets/<br /><br />AESA is a second-generation phased radar in which radio waves of multiple frequencies can be sent in different directions without moving the antenna. AESA radars allow aircraft and ships to send powerful signals while remaining stealthy and resistant to jamming.<br /><br />According to details, Pakistan’s local AESA radar is being developed by the Air Weapon Complex (AWC), an R&D facility of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), in collaboration with the National University of Science and Technology (NUST).<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Although complete details of the radar are unavailable at the moment, sources have claimed that the indigenously developed AESA radar will use the latest gallium nitride (GaN) transmit and receive modules that are owned by only a few countries.<br /><br />AWC reportedly designed two types of GaN transmit and receive modules- S-band and X-band- in late 2019 and early 2020 respectively.<br /><br />Both modules have different functionalities. The S-band module is used in ground-based and airborne search radars for target search and detection. On the other hand, the X-band module is associated with fire control due to its superior resolution.<br /><br />The indigenous AESA radar is expected to officially make its debut in the JF-17 Block 4 fighter jet or the fifth-generation stealth fighter jet being developed under Project Azm.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-36314839867160326332022-03-23T20:23:12.708-07:002022-03-23T20:23:12.708-07:00China ramps up arms exports to Pakistan, aiming to...China ramps up arms exports to Pakistan, aiming to squeeze India<br />Beijing and Islamabad grow closer with eye on mutual rival<br /><br />https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-ramps-up-arms-exports-to-Pakistan-aiming-to-squeeze-India<br /><br />BEIJING/NEW DELHI -- From the sale of stealth fighters to submarines, China is accelerating its defense cooperation with Pakistan in a bid to exert pressure on India, a rival in border disputes with both.<br /><br />China is believed to want to expand its influence in South Asia while the U.S. and Europe are focused on the war in Ukraine. Beijing "stands ready to provide assistance within its capacity for Pakistan to overcome difficulties and recover its economy," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in a Tuesday meeting, according to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.<br /><br />Khan expressed hopes for joint achievements and cooperation "in all fields," the ministry said. Ukraine was among the other topics discussed.<br /><br />China this month delivered six J-10CE fighter jets to Pakistan, the Communist Party-affiliated Global Times has reported. An update to China's homegrown J-10s, they are a key part of the Chinese air force and often fly into Taiwan's air defense identification zone.<br /><br />The J-10CE is a so-called 4.5-generation fighter, placing it somewhere between the F-15s used widely by Japan and the U.S. and F-35 stealth fighters in terms of capability. The delivered jets later took part in a military parade in Pakistan.<br /><br />Pakistan this month is also adding 50 new JF-17 fighters, which were developed jointly with China. They do not match the performance of the J-10CE but do come with near-stealth capability.<br /><br />India recently deployed the Russian S-400 missile defense system with an eye toward Pakistan. China looks to bolster its response to potential Indian air operations through greater cooperation with Pakistan.<br /><br />China is actively contributing to improvements in Pakistan's navy as well, concerned that the Indian military could wield greater clout in key Indo-Pacific sea lanes. Pakistan in January inducted a Chinese-built Type 054 frigate, which is designed for anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine warfare.<br /><br />"Pakistan is reportedly also planning to purchase from China eight submarines, which Pakistan is positioning as the 'backbone of the Navy,'" Japan's Ministry of Defense said in its 2021 white paper. "Four will be built in China, with the remainder to be built in Pakistan."<br /><br />Sino-Indian relations have deteriorated since the deadly 2020 border clash in the Himalayas. India also announced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics at the last minute after a Chinese soldier who had been involved in the fighting was chosen as a torchbearer.<br /><br />Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Khan to the Olympics' opening ceremony. At a Feb. 6 summit, Xi told Khan that bilateral ties had gained greater strategic significance amid global turbulence and transformation. He expressed firm support for Pakistan's sovereignty -- a likely signal that China stands with Pakistan in the latter's own border dispute with India.<br /><br />Khan expressed hopes for greater cooperation with China. No force can stop China's advance, he said.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-14720883387445899702022-03-17T19:58:14.589-07:002022-03-17T19:58:14.589-07:00#India's Size Illusion by Arvind Subramanian. ...#India's Size Illusion by Arvind Subramanian. #Indian policymakers should avoid succumbing to the illusion of size, and reconcile themselves with their country's current status as a middling power. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva #Russia #Ukraine #China @ProSyn https://prosyn.org/hNyXBIw<br /><br />True, India’s economy is undeniably large. According to the International Monetary Fund, India is the world’s third-largest economy in purchasing-power-parity terms, with a GDP of $10 trillion, behind China ($27 trillion) and the United States ($23 trillion). At market exchange rates, its GDP of $3 trillion makes it the sixth-largest economy, behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.<br /><br />But India’s economic size has not translated into commensurate military strength. Part of the problem is simple geography. Bismarck supposedly said that the US is bordered on two sides by weak neighbors and on two sides by fish. India, however, does not enjoy such splendid isolation. Ever since independence, it has been confronted on its Western frontier by Pakistan, a highly armed, chronically hostile, and often military-ruled neighbor.<br /><br />More recently, India’s northern neighbor, China, also has become aggressive, repudiating the territorial status quo, occupying contested land in the Himalayas, reclaiming territory in the east, and building up a large military presence along India’s borders. So, India may have fish for neighbors along its long peninsular coast, but on land it faces major security challenges on two fronts.<br /><br />Despite these challenges and its sizable economy, India has struggled to generate adequate military resources. Defense expenditure is notoriously difficult to estimate, especially for China and Pakistan, which have opaque political systems. But annual combined defense spending by India’s two adversaries is likely to be three times the $70-75 billion that India spends. And the effective gap is probably even larger, because India’s politically driven emphasis on military manpower has crowded out spending on military technology. In short, India may have a large economy, but dangerous geography and domestic politics have left it militarily vulnerable.<br /><br />Then there is the question of market size. As Pennsylvania State University’s Shoumitro Chatterjee and one of us (Subramanian) have shown, India’s middle-class market for consumption is much smaller than the $3 trillion headline GDP number suggests, because many people have limited purchasing power while a smaller number of well-off people tend to save a lot. In fact, the effective size of India’s consumer market is less than $1 trillion, far smaller than China’s and even smaller relative to the potential world export market of nearly $30 trillion.<br /><br />---------------<br />India needs to accept, and act in line with, its current status as a middling power. Over time, rapid and sustained economic growth could make India the major power it aspires to be. Until then, it must look past the illusion of size and reconcile itself with strategic realities.<br /><br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.com