Comments on Haq's Musings: Solar Energy in Pak Homes, Schools & Factories

AEDB to launch one wind power project every month,...

2012-01-07T11:57:02.736-08:00

AEDB to launch one wind power project every month, according to Power Engg:

As part of an ambitious strategy of the government to bridge gap between demand and supply of electricity, the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) would launch one wind power project every month. "The 2012 will be remembered as the year of wind power in Pakistan as we are planning to inaugurate one project every month in the current year," an AEDB official told.

Last week, Federal Minister for Water and Power Syed Naveed Qamar and Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Liu Jian jointly performed the groundbreaking of 50 megawatt wind power project, which would be set up in Jhimpir area of Sindh. The official said that Pakistan has vast potential to generate electricity through alternative energy sources, which is reflective from the fact that alone the Thatta district has the capacity of producing 15,000 MW wind power.

Sources in the board said the project is being executed in collaboration with a Chinese company : Three Gorges : which has been mandated to set up total 20 wind-farms of 50 MW each during next five years.

This is the company's first project in Pakistan, while in total, it is third wind power project initiated in the country, the sources added.

They said that AEDB has set a target to generate 1500 MW wind power by 2013, which seems achievable because of the serious and accelerated efforts of the government.

The government has introduced an 'effective and attractive' renewable energy policy, which is bringing foreign investment in the power sector, the sources said, adding "It is an achievement that renewable and wind energy sectors are attracting the highest amount of private investment as compared to any other sector of the economy."

Special attention is being paid on other resources to produce electricity like hydro, hydel and wind, which are cheapest modes of generating power.

Besides, the focus is being given on the Thar coal reserves to use in power production, they added.

The Thar coal reserves worth $ 25 trillion have potential to generate 5,000 MW electricity for at least 800 years to meet growing energy demand of the country.

While, the power generated from coal gasification is the cheapest than other sources like furnace oil, natural gas and hydel. According to a report, a single reserve in Thar has about 850
trillion cubic feet coal (TCF).

http://www.power-eng.com/news/2012/01/1576631431/aedb-to-launch-one-wind-power-project-every-month.html

UNICEF opens 35 news schools in flood-affected are...

2012-01-07T10:55:54.072-08:00

UNICEF opens 35 news schools in flood-affected areas in Pakistan, according to Channel 6 news:

The United Nations (UN) on Wednesday announced that its Children's Fund (UNICEF) opened 35 newly constructed schools in the Pakistani province of Punjab, which was severely damaged by the 2010 floods.

With donor funding in the southern area of Punjab province, the new schools were handed over to the Punjab Education Department and opened with 4,500 pupils attending classes. The 35 schools are located in the districts of Muzaffargah, Rajanpur and Rahimyar Khan.

Most of the Government school buildings were either damaged or completely destroyed in the 2010 floods, prompting UNICEF to initiate a schools reconstruction program in the worst affected districts of southern Punjab and other parts of the country.

Temporary learning centers were also established to ensure that children did not miss their academic year, but prefabricated school structures with all amenities have already replaced the temporary learning centers, UNICEF said in an update.

"The Child Friendly Schooling approach is interactive and makes learning fun for children," said Karen Allen, UNICEF’s deputy representative in Pakistan.

"It has elements of health and hygiene through provision of safe drinking water and improved sanitation, early childhood and development for preparing young children for school, playground and equipment for healthy physical activities, psychosocial support for rehabilitation of trauma-affected children, involvement of parents and community, and many other unique features that makes education attractive," she added.

The Embassy of the Netherlands in Pakistan contributed $1.2 million for the construction of 24 schools, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) donated an additional $250,000, which was used to build seven schools. Funding for the construction of four schools was provided by Italy, Hungary and Sweden.

http://channel6newsonline.com/2012/01/pakistan-unicef-opens-35-new-schools-in-flood-stricken-province-of-punjab/

Anon: "nope it manufactures most of them at h...

2012-01-06T10:58:12.069-08:00

Anon: "nope it manufactures most of them at home/(it is a net exporter of mobile phones):"

Livemint you referred to is an old 2007 Gartner forecast, not actuals.

The reality is that India imports most of its phones from China. Taiwanese manufacturer HTC, which makes phones in China, led the field in growth at 99.1% in India in 2011.

http://www.penn-olson.com/2011/07/05/india-mobile-market-growth/

Shams and Suhail, Even with the infrastructure, P...

2012-01-06T10:43:57.717-08:00

Shams and Suhail,

Even with the infrastructure, Pakistan is already suffering a serious CNG crisis.

Regardless of conversion efficiency, fossil fuels like coal, oil or gas are not as abundant as the sun, particularly in places like sunny India and Pakistan.

And villagers do not need much of an infrastructure to use solar.

Technological development is not taking place in s...

2012-01-06T10:43:27.039-08:00

Technological development is not taking place in solar alone; it is being done in power generation from fossil fuels also. Previously the energy efficiency using engines or boiler/turbines was around 25% only. Now it has gone up to over 45% and the trend will continue. The high temperature flue gases from engines are still more feasible to convert to usable energy than low temperature heat from sun. However, if fossil fuels become costly because of depleting reserves, or (more likely) their use is restricted through legislation for environmental reasons, then solar power will certainly take over.

As Shams mentioned, we were discussing solar electricity as a business model but couldn't come up with a feasible one. I'll soon be starting another discussion with Shams for using solar energy for hot water generation which provides usable higher temperature heat with a 4-5 times higher energy efficiency than solar power generation. The hot water to be used in absorption type refrigeration systems for air-conditioning. In winters the same system (minus the chiller) is used for space heating. This seems more feasible in Pakistan compared to solar power generation. For the US similarly, where sunny conditions prevail and both cooling and heating required over the year (as in California), this will probably be a better use of solar energy compared to solar power generation. Shams can comment on this.

The point to note is that use of solar energy does not only mean power generation. There are other alternatives more in line with thermodynamic principles.

While no one is running over the other in pursuit ...

2012-01-06T10:42:50.268-08:00

While no one is running over the other in pursuit of solar, a country as poor as Pakistan has already invested $10 billion in equipment for CNG use in transportation vehicles- all of which money is from investors and zero from the government. I do not know if the American public has invested as much in solar panels on rooftops which is all subsidy funded.

I agree that 10 years from now solar will be cheaper and good for Pakistan. For now Sindh's Younus Dargha is right in pursuing 25000 MW from coal power and I will happily cozily wait for that day while my electrical heater runs on fossil fuels.

India, too, imports bulk of its cell phones from y...

2012-01-06T10:42:04.203-08:00

India, too, imports bulk of its cell phones from your "enemy China",

nope it manufactures most of them at home/(it is a net exporter of mobile phones):

http://www.livemint.com/2007/08/30162127/Mobile-phone-output-in-India-t.html

Anon: "India is ramping up indeginous product...

2012-01-06T10:32:45.602-08:00

Anon: "India is ramping up indeginous production in solar cells in a big way look up moser baer among tehrs."

Good for India. As of now, all solar panels in India are imported.

Here's a NY Times excerpt:

Developers of solar farms in India, however, have shown a preference for the more advanced, so-called thin-film solar cells offered by suppliers in the United States, Taiwan and Europe. The leading American provider to India is First Solar, based in Tempe, Ariz.

India does not have a large solar manufacturing industry, but is trying to develop one and China is showing a new interest in India’s growing demand. China’s Suntech Power sold the panels used at the Azure installation, which opened in June.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/business/energy-environment/in-solar-power-india-begins-living-up-to-its-own-ambitions.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=todayspaper

Anon: "does pakistan have a similar plan or like cellphones is it an 'import from dear friend china' strategy again"

India, too, imports bulk of its cell phones from your "enemy China", running huge trade deficits.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/05/soaring-chinese-imports-worry-india.html

India is ramping up indeginous production in solar...

2012-01-06T10:25:43.638-08:00

India is ramping up indeginous production in solar cells in a big way look up moser baer among tehrs.
does pakistan have a similar plan or like cellphones is it an 'import from dear friend china' strategy again

Suhail: "There are thermodynamic (scientific)...

2012-01-06T09:43:25.343-08:00

Suhail: "There are thermodynamic (scientific) principles explaining that solar energy conversion to electricity has much lower efficiency compared to chemical, nuclear or mechanical energy conversion to electricity....."

Let me refer you to a recent piece in Scientific American on this subject:

The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. 700 watts of power, on average, reaches Earth’s surface. Summed across the half of the Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89 petawatts of power. By comparison, all of human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one six-thousandth as much. In 14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a day.

The numbers are staggering and surprising. In 88 minutes, the sun provides 470 exajoules of energy, as much energy as humanity consumes in a year. In 112 hours – less than five days – it provides 36 zettajoules of energy – as much energy as is contained in all proven reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet.

If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the earth – one part in one thousand - we would have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today, with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. At the current rate of energy consumption increase – about 1 percent per year – we will not be using that much energy for another 180 years.
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The cost of solar, in the average location in the U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9 years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts of America.

10 years later, in 2030, solar electricity is likely to cost half what coal electricity does today. Solar capacity is being built out at an exponential pace already. When the prices become so much more favorable than those of alternate energy sources, that pace will only accelerate.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-2011-03-15

Riaz: There are thermodynamic (scientific) princi...

2012-01-06T09:40:52.177-08:00

Riaz:

There are thermodynamic (scientific) principles explaining that solar energy conversion to electricity has much lower efficiency compared to chemical, nuclear or mechanical energy conversion to electricity. It is not a matter of marketing strategy, social and economic issues only. Technological development is an important factor changing our lifestyles, but it follows scientific principles and not in violation.

You cannot, therefore, extend the logic of cell phones and computer chip development to solar electricity; it will be very inaccurate.

Shams, Look at the Indian solar example which is ...

2012-01-06T08:50:38.913-08:00

Shams,

Look at the Indian solar example which is more relevant and recent, not the German example which was done much earlier to encourage solar development many years ago. The solar economics are changing rapidly with the Chinese entry in a big way.

If "some villagers may run a light or two, a TV and a fridge on solar, using individual solar panels", that represents a huge improvement in their lives from the current situation, providing a huge impetus for human and economic development in Pakistan.

The German example is pretty bad though. Germany&...

2012-01-06T08:48:04.584-08:00

The German example is pretty bad though. Germany's 23GW installed capacity is mostly comprised of rooftops though large plants are also in place. The feed-in-tariff for rooftoppers costs ONE billion euros per month to subsidize. So once again, I must say - forget it.

Just six months ago I figured that the place where 2 KW small solar systems are deployable were Pakistan's remote areas. Since then, technology has came up with 16-sq-inch (4x4 inch) solar panels that power individual 20W LED light bulbs pushing out 500 lumens, equal to a 70W incandescent bulb.

The new LED LCD 73 inch TV that I just bought consumes only 120W, and a fridge that I bought for my garage is running at 210watts.

So yes - some villagers may run a light or two, a TV and a fridge on solar, using individual solar panels. But the moment you start shipping electrical power from the panel to a distance, all hell breaks loose, since my new toaster still runs at 1500 watts.

Solar shall remain good for trinkets for a long time, not for large power plants.

Au contraire, Pakistan has the largest number of transportation vehicles on CNG. It took Pakistan nearly 30 years to develop its CNG infrastructure at a cost of $10 billion (http://naqvigroup.com/transglobeshipping/exipromocng.html).

A few years ago, the big western corp dismissed th...

2012-01-06T08:23:33.847-08:00

A few years ago, the big western corp dismissed the poor nations as a market for their products. All that changed with the massive uptake of cell phones by the poor in South Asia and Africa.

This has brought about a dramatic change in the thinking of big corp who now are developing and marketing actively to the "bottom of the pyramid" market. There's even be an HBS case study on it.

As to the pricing of the solar, the cost and price curves are following Moore's Law....it's getting significantly cheaper and more capable each year....it came down 27% year over year in India.

Last month, NY Times reported that the Indian government held its second auction to determine the price at which its state-owned power trading company — NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam — would buy solar-generated electricity for the national grid. The average winning bid was 8.77 rupees (16.5 cents) per kilowatt hour.

That is about twice the price of coal-generated power, but it was about 27 percent lower than the winning bids at the auction held a year ago. Germany, the world’s biggest solar-power user, pays about 17.94 euro cents (23 American cents) per kilowatt hour.
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Most Indian power plants are fueled by coal and generate electricity at about 4 rupees (7.5 cents) per kilowatt hour — less than half of solar’s cost now. In this month’s auction, the recent winning bids were comparable to what India’s industrial and commercial users pay for electricity — from 8 to 10 rupees. And solar’s costs are competitive with power plants and back-up generators that burn petroleum-based fuels, whose electricity costs about 10 rupees per kilowatt hour.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/business/energy-environment/in-solar-power-india-begins-living-up-to-its-own-ambitions.html?_r=2&pagewanted=2&ref=todayspaper

The villagers do not pay for the solar lighting an...

2012-01-06T07:49:47.908-08:00

The villagers do not pay for the solar lighting and if it was not for free, they would not have got it installed. The ones you're talking about are UK funded. One can say that solar lighting is a better way of dispensing charity to poor villagers than Benazir Income Support Program or similar government sponsored schemes. I think the issue to address in your blog is that government poverty alleviation programs should spend on solar lighting instead of dishing out money which is eventually wasted or ends up in corruption.

I cannot see the prospect of solar lighting development as a sustainable business proposition in Pakistan (or anywhere) in the near future, unless solar panels become dirt cheap or oil & gas reach extinction levels and become prohibitively expensive. In Europe and America, solar energy is highly subsidized.

Shams: "Just so you know, T. Boone Pickens ha...

2012-01-05T20:18:38.251-08:00

Shams: "Just so you know, T. Boone Pickens has shut off his support for wind and solar - after wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on wind farm in Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. His take - forget solar and wind, and go for natural gas"

T. Boone Pickens knows nothing about the village life in developing nations where more than 40% of the people lack electricity.

His pursuit of profits and his opinions are in North American context. He wants to exploit abundant shale gas resources discovered more recently.

Pakistan, too, has lots of shale gas and other domestic energy resources like coal. But Pakistani government and public utilities have failed the rural people in Pakistan. Left to them, the poor villagers, especially those living far away from the electricity grid or the gas pipelines, will be waiting for ever to get their basic energy needs met.

Ubiquity of cheap solar products, just like cheap and ubiquitous cell phones, are the right answer in Pakistani villagers to help transform their lives in a reasonable time-frame.

Using solar lights for traffic lamp posts, or at h...

2012-01-05T20:12:40.341-08:00

Using solar lights for traffic lamp posts, or at home is not the same as using it on an institutional level. I have 55 lumen solar lights in my backyard but I do not claim myself to be solar-lighter. In fact I am opposing solar on the roof intiative of CSI at gubernatorial level.

Just so you know, T. Boone Pickens has shut off his support for wind and solar - after wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on wind farm in Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. His take - forget solar and wind, and go for natural gas.

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/state/headlines/20100112-T-Boone-Pickens-cuts-order-915.ece

Feroz: "Two 180kw solar project on PEC& p...

2012-01-05T19:05:37.802-08:00

Feroz: "Two 180kw solar project on PEC& planning commission building
Two Mega project each 3MW on two hospitals"

Solar lights are a much bigger deal in terms of enabling Pakistan's vast village population that has little or no electricity.

Each solar light has a built-in solar panel which it uses to generate electricity to charge the batteries.

The villagers in Pakistan are getting these for free from DfID funds.

The value of these lights should not be measured in dollars but the significant positive impact they have on the lives of villagers. They reduce risk of fire from candles or kerosene lanterns, improve productivity and allow people to charge their cell phone batteries to keep in touch with their families and communities.

The good news is that the cost of solar products is rapidly declining as the Chinese flood the market. Solar panels, solar heaters, and energy storage devices are all becoming more and more available and affordable, just as the cell phones have. I expect significant relief for energy starved Pakistanis from a solar revolution.

Shams: "You are mixing up solar panel systems...

2012-01-05T18:40:49.201-08:00

Shams: "You are mixing up solar panel systems with $15 solar panel lights...."

Each solar light has a built-in solar panel which it uses to generate electricity to charge the batteries.

The villagers in Pakistan are getting these for free from DfID funds.

The value of these lights should not be measured in dollars but the significant positive impact they have on the lives of villagers. They reduce risk of fire from candles or kerosene lanterns, improve productivity and allow people to charge their cell phone batteries to keep in touch with their families and communities.

The good news is that the cost of solar products is rapidly declining as the Chinese flood the market. Solar panels, solar heaters, and energy storage devices are all becoming more and more available and affordable, just as the cell phones have. I expect significant relief for energy starved Pakistanis.

You are mixing up solar panel systems with $15 sol...

2012-01-05T18:39:25.704-08:00

You are mixing up solar panel systems with $15 solar panel lights. Home Depot sells 55 lumen solar lamps for $30 each (could equate to $15 in Pakistani market). In comparison, just imagine - a 40W lamp is about 450 lumen.

Anon: "rich gcc muslim countries with surplus...

2012-01-05T17:41:35.076-08:00

Anon: "rich gcc muslim countries with surplus budgets hardly fund non arabic muslim countries?"

Not true!

No one advertizes the GCC assistance like the US or UK help which gets lots of coverage in western media.

Pakistan is getting substantial help from Saudis and Emiratis for flood affectees.

Here are just a couple of examples:

1. Saudi Arabia is funding the local chapter of UNICEF to rebuild a massive water supply network in Pakistan devastated by ravaging floods at a cost of hundreds of millions of SRs, according to Arab News.

http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article554122.ece

2. Seven UAE-funded hospitals and clinics are being built in Pakistan at a cost of nearly Dh63 million, according to UAE's National newspaper.

http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/health/uae-to-fund-hospitals-in-pakistan

Mr. Riaz why is it that US and UK and western coun...

2012-01-05T12:22:52.600-08:00

Mr. Riaz why is it that US and UK and western countries fund so many development projects in Pakistan whereas rich gcc muslim countries with surplus budgets hardly fund non arabic muslim countries? I am a muslim and I get this question asked a lot by non muslims because they think we hate the west which is not true at least in my case.

Thank you for your kind efforts we really learn fr...

2012-01-05T09:32:48.854-08:00

Thank you for your kind efforts we really learn from you
Almost daily we get some good knowledge from you
You can add:
Two 180kw solar project on PEC& planning commission building
Two Mega project each 3MW on two hospitals