tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post824126035982912827..comments2024-03-27T15:36:44.737-07:00Comments on Haq's Musings: Forget Chinindia! It's Chimerica to the Rescue!Riaz Haqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-13175906457583137352013-07-13T14:02:55.962-07:002013-07-13T14:02:55.962-07:00HWJ: "If you were talking about Household Sav...HWJ: "If you were talking about Household Savings rates (as a subset of Domestic Savings rates), then perhaps you should have specified that.."<br /><br />One can draw a conclusion from this data that industrialized nations with strong social safety nets have lower savings rates than less developed nations where people must save more of their incomes for the rainy day and fend for themselves. Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-72251721102759658592013-07-13T12:38:50.449-07:002013-07-13T12:38:50.449-07:00^^RH: "While American savings have declined f...^^RH: "While American savings have declined from above 5 percent of the GDP in the mid 1990s to virtually zero by 2005, the Chinese savings rate has surged from below 30 percent to nearly 45 percent of its GDP."<br />-------<br /><br />Domestic Savings rates:<br />http://alturl.com/im9cc<br /><br />If you were talking about Household Savings rates (as a subset of Domestic Savings rates), then perhaps you should have specified that:<br /><br />http://alturl.com/2ixm9<br />http://alturl.com/odhsnHopewinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07885301987622998733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-77178101705233555862013-03-12T10:12:44.901-07:002013-03-12T10:12:44.901-07:00Here's a Forbes piece by Stephen Harner on US-...Here's a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2013/02/20/japan-and-u-s-ignored-chinese-signals-and-history-blundering-into-the-senkakudiaoyu-crisis/" rel="nofollow">Forbes</a> piece by Stephen Harner on US-Japan vs China on disputed islands:<br /><br /><i>Former students of Asian politics and international relations of a certain age (my age, or a bit older), would in college or graduate school have heard of, if not carefully read, China Crosses the Yalu: The Decision to Enter the Korean War, by Allen S. Whiting (1960). This was a seminal study of formal or–mainly–informal signals sent by China in 1950 warning with increasing clarity and vehemence the officially U.N. (but overwhelmingly U.S.) forces under command of Douglas MacArthur, then beating back North Korea invaders and advancing up the Korea peninsula, that China was prepared to and would intervene on behalf of North Korea if its territory or vital interests were threatened.<br /><br />In the event, on October 25,1950, 25 days after U.N. forces had crossed the 38th parallel, 200,000 Chinese People’s Liberation Army (redesignated by Mao Zedong the People’s Volunteer Army) soldiers, having secretly crossed the Yalu River on October 19, attacked U.N. forces, beginning an engagement that would vastly increase casualties on both sides, but especially for the PLA. Whiting’s book sought to discern at what point China’s in many cases subtle and indirect warnings might have been heeded or responded so that intervention might have been avoided.<br /><br />I have been reminded of China Crosses the Yalu as I have worked through the new book on the Senkaku/Diaoyu island crisis by Yabuki Susumu (矢吹晋), professor emeritus of Yokohama City University, one of Japan’s most eminent China scholars. The book (written in Japanese) is entitled:「尖閣問題の核心 」(The Core of the Senkaku Issue), and bears a subtitle:「日中関係はどうなる」 (What is to Become of Japan-China Relations). I believe that the book is the fairest and most objective, as well as the most thorough, exposition of the positions of both Japan and China, and–critically–the U.S., on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute.<br /><br />At the risk of oversimplifying, I think I can summarize Professor Yabuki’s analysis and conclusions as follows:<br /><br />1. The Japanese position on the Senkaku/Diaoyu issue is indefensible on several counts, including most fundamentally Japan’s unconditional acceptance of the terms of the Potsdam Declaration (which required the return of all territories “stolen” from China).<br /><br />2. The Meiji government’s annexation of the Ryuku Islands (theretofore an autonomous kingdom) in January 1885, within which the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands were identified, followed three months later by the Qing Dynasty’s surrender of Taiwan and the Pescadores to Japan in the Treaty of Shimonoseki (ending the Sino-Japanese War) are both mooted by the terms of Potsdam. The islands were and are clearly part of Taiwan, which in addition has the most legitimate claim to continuous use/occupation.<br /><br />3. The Japanese position that Senkaku/Diaoyu is part of Japanese territory because it was awarded to Japan by the U.S. in the Okinawa Reversion agreement of 1971 is similarly contrary to fact. The U.S. awarded to Japan only administrative authority over the islands, not sovereignty. Sovereignty was specifically not transferred. The U.S. continued to maintain was undetermined between the three claimants and would only be determined through discussion and agreement. (As I noted in the last post, the Obama administration–in a monumental blunder–effectively changed this policy by failing to object to and stop Japanese “nationalization.”)....</i><br /><br />http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2013/02/20/japan-and-u-s-ignored-chinese-signals-and-history-blundering-into-the-senkakudiaoyu-crisis/Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-29126696549759912412009-03-15T09:47:00.000-07:002009-03-15T09:47:00.000-07:00Riaz, but compared to $2 trillion, you agree that ...Riaz, but compared to $2 trillion, you agree that $30 billion is a drop in the bucket. Also it is a necessary evil, given the reserve status of the U.S dollar. But, to me the most important sovereign function of any country, India or Pak is to protect the value of their currency. In early 2008 A dollar was worth Re.40 and today it is Re.51. I'm sure the situation in Pak is much worse. <BR/>I think the politicians in India understand that it is paramount to avoid an east-asian type crisis. Eventhough we liberalised in 1991, we didn't encourage too much hot money to flow in. Otherwise the situation would have been much worse. Perhaps one of the reasons the Obama administration has been cool towards India. We are not a big stake holder, and not in the same boat as the U.S and Chinese. Their economic well-being is more closely linked to one another.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-78699964972249746402009-03-15T08:00:00.000-07:002009-03-15T08:00:00.000-07:00Anon:You say, "i'm an indian and it came as a reli...Anon:<BR/><BR/>You say, "i'm an indian and it came as a relief to know that India only owns $30 billion of U.S T-bills. "<BR/><BR/>I agree with you that it doesn't make sense for India to lend $30b to the US when its own infrastructure projects could easily use far more than that and create more jobs for its people.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-56653574477129062412009-03-15T03:45:00.000-07:002009-03-15T03:45:00.000-07:00i'm an indian and it came as a relief to know that...i'm an indian and it came as a relief to know that India only owns $30 billion of U.S T-bills. My father is a bank manager and always carps about how the govt has eased the lending norms for student loans in India. I think it is a socially responsible move to lend money to our own young people, even if 50% default on their student loans than to use that money to encourage American consumerism. <BR/><BR/>As much as we would like to denigrate our politicians, i would give them an above averge grade for social responsibility and not deserting Nehru's vision of non-alignment completely and doing a rather good job of steering the ship of state through these troubling economic times. It is better to stay decoupled sometimes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-3596447359023570642009-03-14T16:14:00.000-07:002009-03-14T16:14:00.000-07:00Anon:It is really sad to see how quickly serious d...Anon:<BR/><BR/>It is really sad to see how quickly serious discussion of any topic turns into an ugly confrontation regarding issues that are not even relevant to the post. It does show a total lack of maturity if not "unvarnished hatred" and "never ending suspicion" by some commentators.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-58548982176456835962009-03-14T15:08:00.000-07:002009-03-14T15:08:00.000-07:00This defeated mindset, unvarnished hatred, and nev...<I>This defeated mindset, unvarnished hatred, and never ending suspicion displayed by Naveen is the weirdest phenomena for many of us.</I><BR/><BR/>No doubt. True to the "cunning Hindu <I>bania</I>" idea that's so prevalent in Pakistan. Some of the moral righteousness displayed on these comments border on the absurd. Like all Pakistanis are <I>doodh mein dhule hue</I> :-) . Take a break from the righteous indignation and go back to chop-chop - before there's not much left to chop-chop for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-69530609312386467202009-03-14T11:31:00.000-07:002009-03-14T11:31:00.000-07:00This defeated mindset, unvarnished hatred, and nev...This defeated mindset, unvarnished hatred, and never ending suspicion displayed by Naveen is the weirdest phenomena for many of us. Its not unique to him or or to a few middle class Indians but its kind of omnipresent among Indians. I would not say that this condition is a morale booster for me, in fact I am more worried that if Indians feel so insecure when things are going so well for them then what would they do when they face a speed wobble? Or may be there is something behind all this hype that they know that we do not know! What happened to the Barak's CTO?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-91246383635623265912009-03-13T23:46:00.000-07:002009-03-13T23:46:00.000-07:00Naveen,Seriously, it's good news for India, Pakist...Naveen,<BR/><BR/>Seriously, it's good news for India, Pakistan, US, China and the rest of the world facing what the British finance minister describes as the "worst economy in sixty years". The US is the most important export market for goods and services from India, Pakistan, China as well as many other countries. So it's important for the US economy to recover quickly. US and China are clearly the twin engines of growth capable of pulling us all out of the mess we are currently in.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-70640548398177960292009-03-13T21:40:00.000-07:002009-03-13T21:40:00.000-07:00At last some good news for Pakistanis like you...l...At last some good news for Pakistanis like you...lol!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com