tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post3076741396617170285..comments2024-03-27T15:36:44.737-07:00Comments on Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Economic Performance Since 1960Riaz Haqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-45824202975414693582022-12-09T08:11:41.486-08:002022-12-09T08:11:41.486-08:00Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedmin...Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. In a research paper titled "The Path to 2075", the authors forecast Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of $27,100. India’s GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300. Bangladesh is projected to be a $6.3 trillion economy with per capita income of $31,000. By 2075, China will be the top global economy, followed by India 2nd, US 3rd, Indonesia 4th, Nigeria 5th and Pakistan 6th.<br /><br />https://www.southasiainvestor.com/2022/12/goldman-sachs-projects-pakistan-economy.html<br /><br />---------<br /><br />The Path to 2075<br /><br />https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/the-path-to-2075-slower-global-growth-but-convergence-remains-intact/report.pdf<br /><br />Country GDP % Growth Rate by decades 2000-2009 to 2070-2079<br /><br />Pakistan 4.7 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.4<br /><br />China 10.3 7.7 4.2 4.0 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.5<br /><br />India 6.9 6.9 5.0 5.8 4.6 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.1<br /><br />Korea 4.9 3.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.2<br /><br />Bangladesh 5.6 6.6 6.3 6.6 4.9 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.0<br /><br />---------------------<br /><br />Country GDP in Trillions of U$ from 2000 to 2075<br /><br />Pakistan 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.1 9.9 12.3<br /><br />China 1.8 7.4 15.5 24.5 34.1 41.9 48.6 54.8 57.0<br /><br />India 0.7 2.1 2.8 6.6 13.2 22.2 33.2 45.8 52.5<br /><br />Korea 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4<br /><br />Bangladesh 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.1 5.5 6.3<br /><br />-------------------<br /><br />Country Per Capita Income in thousands of US$ by Decade-ends 2000 to 2075<br /><br />Pakistan 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.2 4.8 9.0 14.9 22.5 27.1<br /><br />China 1.4 5.5 10.9 17.3 24.7 31.9 40.3 50.4 55.4<br /><br />India 0.7 1.7 2.0 4.3 8.2 13.3 19.6 27.1 31.3<br /><br />Korea 18.7 28.8 33.0 39.3 53.6 67.7 81.8 95.2 101.8<br /><br />Bangladesh 0.7 1.1 2.3 4.4 8.4 13.5 19.7 26.9 31.0<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-66005060359196006782018-08-20T14:00:00.148-07:002018-08-20T14:00:00.148-07:00If you score more than 33% on Hans Rosling's q...If you score more than 33% on Hans Rosling's quiz abut basic facts about the state of health and wealth in the world today, you know more about the world than a chimp<br /><br />Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads/hans-rosling-factfulness-statistics/<br /><br /><br />Excerpt of Factfulness by Hans Rosling <br /><br /><br />Page 201. <br /><br /><br />This is risky but I am not going to argue it anyway. I strongly believe that liberal democracy is the best way to run a country. People like me, who believe this, are often tempted to argue that democracy leads to, or its even a requirement for, other good things, like peace, social progress, health improvement, and economic growth. But here's the thing, and it is hard to accept: the evidence does not support this stance. <br /><br />Most countries that make great economic and social progress are not democracies. South Korea moved from Level 1 to Level 3 (Rosling divides countries into 4 levels in terms of development, not the usual two categories of developed and developing) faster than any other country had ever done (without finding oil), al the time as a military dictatorship. Of the ten countries with the fastest economic growth, nine of them score low on democracy. <br /><br />Anyone who claims that democracy is a necessity for economic growth and health improvements will risk getting contradicted by reality. It's better to argue for democracy as a goal in itself instead of as a superior means to other goals we like. <br /><br />https://books.google.com/books?id=j-4yDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=factfulness+hans+rosling&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjW-v7KwPzcAhUgHDQIHZreB1IQ6AEIKTAA#v=onepage&q=Of%20the%20ten%20countries%20with%20the%20fastest%20economic%20growth%2C%20nine%20of%20them%20score%20low%20on%20democracy.%20&f=falseRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-28317570782717738962018-07-20T07:08:11.140-07:002018-07-20T07:08:11.140-07:00After 5.8% growth in #GDP in FY 2017-18, #Pakistan...After 5.8% growth in #GDP in FY 2017-18, #Pakistan’s #economy is $313.13 billion as of June 2018, says the nation's central bank<br /><br />https://tribune.com.pk/story/1762089/2-size-pakistans-economy-313-13-billion-says-sbp/<br /><br />The size of Pakistan’s economy stood at $313.13 billion at the end of June, 2018, according to provisional figures released on Thursday by the country’s central bank, as a weaker currency took toll on gross domestic product (GDP) in dollar terms.<br /><br />Pakistan’s GDP stood at $304.97 billion at the end of June, 2017, and the economy registered a 13-year high GDP growth rate of 5.8% in FY18. That said, the size of the economy shrunk in dollar terms as the rupee weakened against the greenback in four separate rounds since December 2017, with a 5.8% growth rate effectively reduced to 2.7%.<br /><br /><br />The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) used a period average month-to-month exchange rate to calculate the GDP, which according to calculations came to around Rs108 to the US dollar. With the rupee having weakened further, the size of the economy is likely to have shrunk even more in dollar terms. The currency is currently hovering around the Rs128-mark as depleting foreign exchange reserves and a widening current account deficit create a headache for economic managers that are at a loss to save the country from a balance of payments crisis.<br /><br />The SBP has already increased the key interest rate by 175 basis points since January, taking it to 7.5% to tackle increasing inflationary pressure in the months to come.<br /><br />Additionally, the 5.8% growth registered during FY18 is also not enough for a developing economy like Pakistan to absorb the number of job seekers that pile up each year. According to experts and global financial institutions, Pakistan needs at least 7% growth to create enough jobs and tame rising unemployment. However, the country is likely to face a slowdown in growth during the ongoing fiscal year as tighter policies to improve macroeconomic stability have a negative impact.<br /><br />Ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have already lowered their forecast for Pakistan’s GDP growth, while the World Bank has also suggested that it will slow down to near 5% in FY18.<br /><br />According to additional figures released by the SBP, Pakistan’s current account deficit stood at $17.99 billion in FY18, translating to 5.7% of GDP and more than twice than the government’s own estimates.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-86055523717951230792018-07-11T18:33:30.544-07:002018-07-11T18:33:30.544-07:00Rashid: "Thank you Riaz Sahib, for looking up...Rashid: "Thank you Riaz Sahib, for looking up this data. It lifts spirits."<br /><br />Pakistan's 82X growth in GDP since 1960 looks impressive relative to the world average growth of 60X since 1960. <br /><br /> However, it pales in comparison to more than 380X for South Korea, 200X growth for China and 150X for Malaysia. <br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-88448477228343907762018-07-11T18:24:58.168-07:002018-07-11T18:24:58.168-07:00Thank you Riaz Sahib, for looking up this data. It...Thank you Riaz Sahib, for looking up this data. It lifts spirits.<br /><br />The following come to mind:<br /><br />Nahin Hai Na-Umeed Iqbal Apni Kisht-e-Weeran Se<br />Zara Nam Ho To Ye Mitti Bohat Zarkhaiz Hai Saqi<br /><br />But of his barren acres Iqbal will not despair:<br />A little rain, and harvests shall wave at last, oh Saki!Rashid A.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-71831675797177183332018-07-11T17:02:36.420-07:002018-07-11T17:02:36.420-07:00Rashid: "I hope the 1960 date for Pakistan is...Rashid: "I hope the 1960 date for Pakistan is for the territory in what is Pakistan now abd does not include Bangladesh in it."<br /><br />The World Bank has split 1960 GDP between Pakistan ($3.71 billion) and Bangladesh ($4.27 billion) for a total of $7.98 billion. <br /><br />My guess is the WB split $7.98 billion between east and west based on population ratio in 1960. <br /><br />BTW, the WB says Bangladesh GDP has grown from $4.27 billion in 1960 to $250 billion in 2017 or 58.5 times. <br /><br />This compares with Pakistan GDP growth from 3.7 billion in 1960 to $305 billion in 2017 or 82.4 times.<br /><br />And India GDP growth from $37 billion in 1960 to $2,597 billion in 2017 or 71.15 times.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-82646366811506706142018-07-11T16:58:38.646-07:002018-07-11T16:58:38.646-07:00Wow, this is amazing.
Pakistan GDP grew from 3.7...Wow, this is amazing.<br /><br />Pakistan GDP grew from 3.7 to 305 billion or 82.4 times.<br /><br />India GDP grew from 37 to 2597 billion or 71.15 times.<br /><br />If Pakistan grew at the same rate as India, Pakistan’s GDP would have been 263.25 billion.<br /><br />And that growth inspire of all the terrorism and in the face of economic hardship. <br /><br />I hope the 1960 date for Pakistan is for the territory in what is Pakistan now abd does not include Bangladesh in it.Rashid A.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-41038487785218201592018-07-11T11:00:19.958-07:002018-07-11T11:00:19.958-07:00Latest World Bank data on GDP published in June, 2...Latest World Bank data on GDP published in June, 2018: <br /><br />https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?view=map<br /><br />Pakistan GDP in current US$ 1960: $3.7 billion, 2017: $305 billion<br /><br />India GDP in current US$ 1960: $36.5 billion, 2017: $2,597 billionRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-3318883537256698472018-07-06T16:40:52.053-07:002018-07-06T16:40:52.053-07:00#Pakistan: Beyond the stereotypes: Rural #women in...#Pakistan: Beyond the stereotypes: Rural #women in colorful attires, girls learning boxing, countryside kids playing #football on a dusty street, tribal men learning English, rare #Asian rhino, vibrantly painted rickshaws that show rich #culture <br /><br />http://bit.ly/2m19ywg<br /><br />Rural women in multi-coloured attire, young girls learning boxing, traditional kushti (wrestling) matches, countryside kids playing football on a dusty street, tribal men learning the English language, a girl from Gilgit-Baltistan playing Rubab (a lute-like musical instrument), the rare Asian one-horned rhino, vibrantly painted rickshaws that are emblems of a cultural richness ... these are images of Pakistan so rarely seen in mainstream media dominated as it is by narrow narratives of violence, strife and politics that it drove a Pakistani freelance photojournalist to do something about overturning the stereotypes.<br />“All you hear about Pakistan in the news is about terrorism, politics or poverty. But the Pakistan I know and live in is more than that. Pakistan is full of colours, smiles and diversity,” Saleem told Gulf News. And then last February, as he scrolled through his Instagram feed, he came across a cascade of images from a city that was on the other side of the border, in India. The Everyday Mumbai project that was all about capturing quotidian glimpses of the bustling megapolis.<br />“I was so inspired by the Everyday Mumbai project and its creator Chirag Wakaskar that I contacted the global community of Everyday Projects to start a similar project for Pakistan,” he said. Thus was born Everyday Pakistan.<br /><br /><br />Everyday Projects is a photography education non-profit and a collective of Instagram feeds which represents more than 50 countries. Its mission, according to the website, is to use photography “to challenge stereotypes that distort our understanding of the world.” The collective audience of Everyday Projects is over 1 million now.<br /><br /><br />Everyday Pakistan launched early this year with Saleem as the founder/curator with the assistance of a fellow writer, Anushe Noor. What started as a one-man mission to challenge stereotypes about his homeland now boasts nearly 58,000 followers on Instagram with a significant following on other social media platforms. “Everyday Pakistan is transforming negative perceptions, one photo at a time,” Saleem said.<br />The Instagram account offers a kaleidoscopic view of Pakistan’s innumerable wealth in terms of its people, cultures, natural resources, traditions and way of life.<br /><br />From the fascinating shots of St. Patrick’s Cathedral in Karachi, Buddha statues at the Bhamala Stupa near Khanpur, shrine of Sufi Saint Hazrat Ali Hajvery in Lahore, Shri Naval Mandir Narayanpura Hindu Temple in Karachi, and a portrait of 55-year-old Pakistani Sikh from Gurdwara Punja Sahib in Hassan Abdal, Everyday Pakistan brings to light the stunning cultural and religious diversity in Pakistan.<br />The most popular post was of a young man offering prayer in the caves of Quetta which received more than 130,000 likes.<br />During Ramadan and Eid, he received many requests from all over the world to share more photos of the festival as people were curious to learn more about Pakistan.<br />Through the online photo documentary project, Saleem also aims to provide a platform to local photographers to promote photojournalism in Pakistan and build a community of storytellers by giving viewers an honest insight into Pakistan.<br />A shared sense of historyRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-44203872528803366442018-07-04T10:56:15.928-07:002018-07-04T10:56:15.928-07:00Two points you make are baffling.
"Pakistan ...Two points you make are baffling.<br /><br />"Pakistan has lagged its peers in per capita income growth over the last 50 decades." Pakistan has only been in existence for the last 70 years and technically only 47 years since 1971. <br /><br />1960:2016 Per Capita GDP Comparison. Source: Hindustan Times is equally baffling. The use of 1960 as a base year and claim "Pakistan" grew 5X is incorrect. West Pakistan in 1960 was the most prosperous region and East Pakistan was the poorest region in South Asia per UN statistics. India was the average of the two in 1960.<br /><br />Since 1971 Pakistan has lagged South Asia in economic growth and other markers despite being the most prosperous country in 1971!<br />Jamshed Ahirnoreply@blogger.com