tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post2277329315001208362..comments2024-03-27T15:36:44.737-07:00Comments on Haq's Musings: Gen Kidwai on Pakistan's 2nd Strike Capability and Nuclear TriadRiaz Haqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-55081871403097485922023-09-13T10:10:27.070-07:002023-09-13T10:10:27.070-07:00Pakistan nuclear weapons, 2023
By Hans M. Kristens...Pakistan nuclear weapons, 2023<br />By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, September 11, 2023<br /><br /><br />https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-09/pakistan-nuclear-weapons-2023/<br /><br />Pakistan continues to gradually expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads, more delivery systems, and a growing fissile material production industry. Analysis of commercial satellite images of construction at Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be newer launchers and facilities that might be related to Pakistan’s nuclear forces.<br /><br />We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads (See Table 1). The US Defense Intelligence Agency projected in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020 (US Defense Intelligence Agency 1999, 38), but several new weapon systems have been fielded and developed since then, which leads us to a higher estimate. Our estimate comes with considerable uncertainty because neither Pakistan nor other countries publish much information about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.<br /><br />With several new delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure, Pakistan’s stockpile has the potential to increase further over the next several years. The size of this projected increase will depend on several factors, including how many nuclear-capable launchers Pakistan plans to deploy, how its nuclear strategy evolves, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows. We estimate that the country’s stockpile could potentially grow to around 200 warheads by the late 2020s, at the current growth rate. But unless India significantly expands its arsenal or further builds up its conventional forces, it seems reasonable to expect that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will not continue to grow indefinitely but might begin to level off as its current weapons programs are completed.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-26929475350923088752022-08-12T20:54:41.695-07:002022-08-12T20:54:41.695-07:00#Nuclear arsenals of #China, #India, #Pakistan are...#Nuclear arsenals of #China, #India, #Pakistan are growing. But it's not an arms race—yet. Combined arsenals of China (350 warheads), India (160) and Pakistan (165) are much smaller than #US's & #Russia's but exceed #British & #French stockpiles. #Nukes https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/08/11/the-nuclear-arsenals-of-china-india-and-pakistan-are-growing<br /><br />https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1558299909266149376?s=20&t=RiyNJv3kbB9rkOLQ70ZzgQ<br /><br />Yet, in many ways, all three countries were hesitant nuclear powers. China did not deploy a missile capable of hitting the American mainland until the 1980s. When India and Pakistan fought a war over Kargil, in the disputed region of Kashmir, in the summer of 1999, India’s air force, tasked with delivering the bombs if needed, was not told what they looked like, how many there were or the targets over which they might have to be dropped.<br /><br />All that has changed. China has been adding hundreds of new missile silos in recent years. When Pakistan celebrated its 60th birthday in 2007 it had roughly 60 nuclear warheads. Fifteen years on, that number has nearly tripled (see chart). The combined arsenals of China (350 warheads), India (160) and Pakistan (165), though modest by American and Russian standards (several thousand each), now exceed British and French stockpiles in Europe (around 500 in total). All three countries are emulating the American and Russian practice of having a nuclear “triad”: nukes deliverable from land, air and sea. South Asia’s nuclear era is entering a more mature phase.<br /><br />That need not mean a more dangerous one. A new report by Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank in Washington, explores the dynamics among Asia’s three nuclear powers. Since 1998, most Western attention has focused on the risk of a conflagration between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. That danger persists. Yet the risk of an arms race has been exaggerated, argues Mr Tellis, a former State Department official.<br /><br />India’s arsenal has grown slowly, he observes—it remains smaller than Pakistan’s—and its nuclear posture remains “remarkably conservative”. The comparison with the nuclear behemoths is instructive. America and Russia both maintain huge arsenals designed to enable so-called counterforce strikes—those which pre-emptively target the other side’s nuclear weapons to limit the damage they might do. That means their arsenals must be large, sophisticated and kept on high alert.<br /><br />In contrast, China, India and Pakistan, despite their manifold differences, all view nukes as “political instruments” rather than “usable tools of war”, argues Mr Tellis. Both China and India, for instance, pledge that they would not use nuclear weapons unless an adversary had used weapons of mass destruction first, a commitment known as “no first use”. America disbelieves China’s promise, much as Pakistan doubts India’s. But the Chinese and Indian arsenals are consistent with the pledges, insists Mr Tellis.<br /><br />He calculates that if India wanted to use a tactical (or low-yield) nuclear weapon to take out a Pakistani missile on the ground, it would have to do so within a few minutes of the Pakistani launcher leaving its storage site. That is implausible. India does not have missiles that can launch within minutes of an order, nor those accurate to within tens of metres of their target. And, for now, China’s rocketeers also train and operate on the assumption that their forces would be used in retaliation. The result is that things are more stable than the swelling arsenals suggest.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-56670894866847603842022-01-21T17:43:51.660-08:002022-01-21T17:43:51.660-08:00Does Pakistan Have Any Countermeasures?
This begs ...Does Pakistan Have Any Countermeasures?<br />This begs the question- what strategies and weapons does Pakistan have in its arsenal to counter the S-400s?<br /><br /><br />https://eurasiantimes.com/challenging-s-400-missiles-pakistan-says-its-stealth-drones-india/<br /><br />Peshawar-based journalist and editor of Global Conflict Watch, Farzana Shah told The EurAsian Times that the “S-400 acquisition by India is a continuation of Delhi’s drive to project her military power in the region. This system will boost Indian air defense capabilities. However, this acquisition was planned and so Pakistan was aware of it.”<br /><br /><br />Shah said that as an answer to India’s acquisition of this system, Pakistan has inducted a system of similar capability in the form of HQ-9B. “Pakistan Air Force is also evaluating another high-altitude long-range SAM system. S-400 is an expensive ABM system so using it as SAM will be expensive and counterproductive,” she opined.<br /><br />Mid-October last year, Janes had reported that the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of the Pakistani military, had issued a press release stating that the Pakistan Army’s (PA) Air Defence forces had inducted a variant of the Chinese-made HQ-9 SAM system in their service.<br /><br />The HQ-9/P is capable of operating as part of an integrated air and missile defense network. The ISPR noted that the system would be used to “significantly enhance” the ‘Comprehensive Layered Integrated Air Defence (CLIAD)’ along the frontiers of Pakistan.<br /><br />This system’s engagement range against cruise missiles and aircraft is over 100 kilometers with a claimed high “single-shot kill probability.” However, it is believed that this range actually applies only to aircraft. Engagement ranges against cruise missiles and other such targets are thought to be close to 25 km.<br /><br />Pakistani journalist Syed Ali Abbas, Managing Editor of Global Defense Insight, said that while Pakistan cannot afford to buy a costly missile defense system like S-400 due to economic constraints, the country already has the tools to counter India’s S-400 acquisition in its inventory.<br /><br /><br />“For instance, Pakistan’s missiles have the capability to penetrate the S-400; MIRV technology can have a substantial impact on S-400. Moreover, with drones coming to assist on the battlefield, and proving to be notably effective in neutralizing various air defense systems, Pakistan also has the option of the Pakistan Air Force acquiring Turkish Bayraktar drones, coupled with its indigenous armed drone inventory,” he explained.<br /><br />In July last year, it was reported that Pakistan was looking to acquire armed drones from Turkey, while simultaneously seeking to deepen the already strong bilateral cooperation with Ankara.<br /><br />Shah highlighted other strategies that the PAF has to deal with the S-400. “Options range from suppressing S-400 radar using stand-off jamming capabilities to taking it out using saturated drone attacks. The system’s radar can pick hundreds of targets but each regiment has only a limited number of interceptor missiles.“<br /><br />Another weapon that Pakistan could potentially use to deal with the S-400 is the ZF-1 stealth drone. This drone was made specifically to attack heavily defended targets. The drone was promoted at Pakistan’s biennial arms exhibition IDEAS in 2018 by UAS Global.<br /><br />According to some experts, Pakistan might also benefit indirectly by holding joint military exercises with friendly countries, which already possess the S-400, such as China and Turkey. Such drills might assist in helping Pakistan identify the system’s strengths and weaknesses.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-16960009141942569672021-12-15T08:58:54.261-08:002021-12-15T08:58:54.261-08:00China’s ‘Most-Powerful’ Missile Defense System Lik...China’s ‘Most-Powerful’ Missile Defense System Likely To Be Deployed Along Both LAC & LOC<br />By<br />EurAsian Times Desk<br />October 21, 2021<br />Pakistan Army’s air defense unit has recently inducted a variant of the Chinese-made HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system most likely to be deployed along the LOC. China had earlier deployed these missiles along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), its de facto border with India.<br /><br />https://eurasiantimes.com/new-headache-for-india-chinas-most-powerful-missile-defense-system-likely-to-be-deployed-along-both-lac-loc/<br /><br />The HQ-9/P (P for Pakistan) high-to-medium air defense system (HIMADS) was inducted into the Pakistan Army at a ceremony held at the Army Air Defence Centre, Karachi. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa was in attendance at the event.<br /><br />------------------------<br /><br />Powered By ‘On The Fly’ Algo, China Says Its AI-Controlled Hypersonic Missiles Can Hit Targets With 10 Times More Accuracy<br /><br />The latest defense collaboration between the ‘iron brothers’, Pakistan and China, may be seen as a fresh threat to India, whose military has long been strategizing to tackle two-front war challenges.<br /><br />The Hóng Qí-9 (HQ-9), literally the ‘Red Banner-9’, is a Chinese medium- to long-range, active radar homing SAM system. The weapon uses an HT-233 passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar system, which has a detection range of 120 km with a tracking range of 90 km.<br /><br />The system has four different types of radar — Type 120 low-altitude acquisition radar, Type 305A 3D acquisition radar, Type 305B 3D acquisition radar, and H-200 mobile engagement radar. In terms of capability, HQ-9 can be compared with the Russian S-300 and American Patriot air defense systems.<br /><br /><br />The EurAsian Times had earlier speculated that HQ-9 missile battery could feature one 200 kW Diesel generator truck, and eight transporter erector launchers (TELs) each with 4 missiles, totaling 32 rounds ready to fire.<br /><br />A variety of equipment can be added to the system to make larger, more capable formations. Among the equipment that can be added is one TWS-312 command post, one site survey vehicle based on the Dongfeng EQ2050, additional transporter/ loader vehicles with each vehicle housing four missile TELs based on Tai’an TAS5380, etc.<br /><br />Big Breakthroughs: After Landing Taikonauts On ‘Space Station’, China Tests World’s ‘Largest Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine’<br />Various units of these highly mobile systems have finished conducting long-distance maneuvers and drills.<br /><br />China has developed multiple variants of this SAM system. The Hǎi Hóng Qí-9, literally the ‘Sea Red Banner-9’, is HQ-9’s naval variant. It seems to be quite identical to the land-based version.<br /><br />China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has deployed the HHQ-9 in its Type 052C Lanzhou-class destroyer in Vertical Launch System or VLS tubes.<br /><br />An anti-radiation variant of the missile system has also been designed and developed by China. The export designation for the air defense version is Fang Dun-2000 (FD-2000), literally meaning defensive shield. Its is developed by China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corporation (CPMIEC). It comes with anti-stealth capability.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the HQ-9A version of the missile features advanced electronic equipment and software that provides it with increased accuracy and probability of kill. The HQ-9B has a longer range and is equipped with an extra seeker.<br /><br />This new vertical launch, ground-to-air missile defense system has a target range of over 250 km and up to a height of 50km.<br /><br />The naval variants of the missile are HHQ-9A and HHQ-9B. HQ-9C is currently under development. It is expected to be equipped with fully active radar homing.<br /><br />Meet Pakistan’s Maritime Patrol Aircraft That Reportedly Detected Indian Navy Submarine Near Karachi<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-66947448152728658282021-02-18T09:10:26.423-08:002021-02-18T09:10:26.423-08:00#Pakistan’s Successful Test Of 2,750-kilometer Sha...#Pakistan’s Successful Test Of 2,750-kilometer Shaheen-III #Missile: It can reach the farthest points of #India specially the Nicobar & Andaman Islands in Bay of Bengal. Its successful tests and flights open up the possibility of #space exploration– OpEd https://www.eurasiareview.com/18022021-pakistans-successful-test-of-shaheen-iii-missile-achieving-full-spectrum-deterrence-oped/<br /><br />Quite recently, in January 2021, Pakistan has conducted a successful flight test of Shaheen-III ballistic missile, capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional payloads. It was first tested in 2015 and said to have a range of 2,750 kilometers. This enables it to reach the farthest points of India specially the Nicobar and Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal. These Islands hold great strategic significance for India since they are believed to provide assured land-based second-strike options to India.<br /><br />Similarly, they are also critical for Indian missile testing. Shaheen-III is a medium-range surface-to-surface two staged solid fueled missile equipped with Post Separation Altitude Correction (PSAC) system. Being a solid-fueled missile enables rapid response capability and PSAC allows it to have better trajectory and accuracy with the capability to evade the deployed ballistic missile defence (BMD) systems. Moreover, it can be launched through “Transporter Erector Launcher (TELs), which can move and hide. This makes the launcher more survivable as compared to the fixed launchers. As of now, the missile has not been operationally deployed.<br /><br />This particular test was conducted by Pakistan to evaluate the design and technical parameters of the Shaheen-III weapon system. Moreover, the Arabian Sea was the point of impact. It was reiterated by Pakistan after the successful test that Pakistan’s nuclear capability is India-centric and the objective of its strategic capability is only to deter “any aggression” against the “sovereignty of Pakistan”. Missile tests in South Asia are routinely exercised as both countries are improving their capabilities of delivery vehicles to maintain the credibility of their deterrence forces. Moreover, they serve the purpose of “signaling” and “readiness” of forces. Just last year, India has conducted 17 missile tests, amid its growing tensions at its northern borders while Pakistan conducted only two missile tests. However, to avoid inadvertent escalation and accidents both countries have the agreement on informing each other before missiles tests. Moreover, Pakistan believes in peaceful co-existence in the region.<br /><br />Defence analysts believe that the Shaheen-III missile system’s development started in the early 2000s and initially, it was envisaged as a “Space Launch Vehicle (SLV). Therefore its successful tests and flights open up the possibility of space exploration for Pakistan as well. It is also believed that Ababeel, a Multiple Independently re-entry targeted Vehicle (MIRV) missile, is also compatible with the designs of Shaheen-III and II. Ababeel, a three-staged, solid-fueled, medium-range surface-to-surface missile was tested by Pakistan back in January 2017. Successful tests of the Shaheen-III missile system would likely enable Pakistan to acquire MIRV technology to maintain a credible deterrence force vis-à-vis India. To ensure the effectiveness and accuracy of different re-entry vehicles going in different directions, Pakistan has bought large-scale “optical tracking and measurement systems” from China. These systems would allow Pakistan to record high-resolution images of the whole process of missile launch till its impact (launch, stage separation, tail flame, re-entry, and impact).<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-32106276939028375522020-05-14T21:34:04.993-07:002020-05-14T21:34:04.993-07:00The Rocket & Satellite Company, #Pakistan’s Fi...The Rocket & Satellite Company, #Pakistan’s First Private Space Company, Is Ready To Launch. It will offer low-cost solutions in three main areas: space launch systems, satellite manufacturing, and ground segment as a service. #Space #Satellites #Rockets https://spacewatch.global/?p=22477<br /><br />Pakistan’s first private space company, The Rocket & Satellite Company Limited, announced this week that it has registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Government of Pakistan.<br /><br />The company announced that it will offer low-cost solutions in three main areas: space launch systems, satellite manufacturing, and ground segment as a service. In the long-term, the company plans to offer solutions in the areas of space debris and in-orbit satellite servicing to increase satellite life.<br /><br />The Rocket & Satellite Company Limited’s space debris solution will reduce the risk of satellite and spacecraft in-space collisions due to space debris, saving significant money for space-based companies. Its focus will be to provide low cost space technology and provide solutions for the issue of space debris through the combined use of artificial intelligence (AI) and space tech.<br /><br />Additionally, the the company will address in-orbit servicing to increase the lifespan of a satellite by providing platform for scientists, engineers, professionals, and students to offer their skills and serve space industries, ensuring the best solutions for the betterment of humanity.<br /><br />The Rocket & Satellite Company Limited is based in Karachi and led by CEO Sami Ullah Khan. Further information is available on the company’s website, as well as its social media presence on Twitter and LinkedIn.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-5250439579582232612019-07-04T18:38:46.842-07:002019-07-04T18:38:46.842-07:00Importance Of Nuclear Submarines For Pakistan – Op...Importance Of Nuclear Submarines For Pakistan – OpEd<br />July 2, 2019 Anjum Sarfraz*<br /><br />https://www.eurasiareview.com/02072019-importance-of-nuclear-submarines-for-pakistan-oped/<br /><br />A submarine is a very powerful platform, because of its stealth features and ability to operate covertly. It plays vital role in naval warfare and as a strategic weapon carrier. It can operate under water for a considerable duration, hence cannot be easily detected; therefore it has become an essential constituent of modern navies.<br /><br />Submarines (subs) are of four types, which differ mainly because of their propulsion system and weapons carried on board. Diesel powered attack submarines (SSK) while on surface use diesel engines for propulsion, and while traversing under water it runs on batteries which have limited endurance. To recharge, conventional subs have to come up to periscope depth for snorkeling very often, keeping in view battery conditions. It is very vulnerable while snorkeling; chances of detection by Anti-Submarine Warfare Forces (ASW) like maritime patrol aircraft, helicopter, and surface platforms are very high. It is relevant to mention that subs have no weapons against the aircrafts.<br /><br />The endurance of SSKs has been increased by installing Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system. This allows additional submerged time and is particularly useful during evasion and transiting through areas of concentrated ASW activities. The advent of this technology has enhanced the submerged endurance but is still restricted in speed. The maximum speed is around 15 knots but it moves 3-5 knots while submerged to conserve batteries. These generate very less noise, hence difficult to detect.<br /><br />Maximum operating depth is around 300 meters and tonnage 1000 to 3500. Weapons carried are anti-ship and anti-submarine torpedoes and sea mines. Also carry medium range (800Km) anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles. Next generation is nuclear propelled attack subs (SSN), nuclear powered guided missiles (SSGN) and nuclear powered ballistic missile carrying subs (SSBN). These have a nuclear power plant for propulsion with almost unlimited endurance, speed around 30 knots on surface as well as submerged, and maximum operating depth more than 500 meters. These are much heavier and noisy as compared to conventional subs. The displacement is from 4000 to 18000 tones. These are designed to remain deployed for much longer duration; only human fatigue is the restrictions. The main role of SSNs and SSGNs is to operate as ASW platforms for a carrier task force and convoy support operations.<br /><br />-------<br /><br /><br />It is obvious that Indian navy has sufficient knowledge of construction and operation of nuclear subs. PN has two Agosta and 3 Agosta 90 B (Khalid class) subs with AIP system. Two have been built in Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW). These have medium range land attack cruise missiles with nuclear warhead. In addition order for 8 latest versions of Chinese conventional subs with AIP system has been placed. Four will be built in Pakistan in KSEW. However, for long range land attack missiles and sustained deployment PN needs to have at least two nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles. Keeping in view Indian second strike capability, our government needs to start the project at the earliest. In the meantime PN may actively consider sending their officers and sailors to China or Russia for training on their nuclear submarines.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-9547428038753944352019-05-09T07:09:26.285-07:002019-05-09T07:09:26.285-07:00What exactly is behind Pakistan’s much-discussed l...What exactly is behind Pakistan’s much-discussed low-yield Nasr? And how might it be used?<br /><br />By Aditya Ramanathan and Kunaal Kini<br />May 07, 2019<br /><br />https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/are-pakistans-battlefield-nuclear-weapons-a-mirage/<br /><br />Like China, Pakistan started out by making implosion bombs based on highly enriched uranium (HEU). (In these bombs, a conventional explosive compresses the fissile core into a supercritical mass.) Pakistan’s 1998 nuclear tests were based on such designs. But for smaller warheads like the Nasr’s, (Brig Feroz Hasan) Khan believes Pakistani scientists will “likely use a plutonium warhead with an implosion assembly.” The NIAS study similarly concludes that a variant – the plutonium-based linear implosion device – is best suited for the slim profile of the Nasr missile.<br /><br />However, as the authors of the NIAS study note, there are two problems with this approach. First, since the linear variant needs twice the amount of fissile material as a spherical implosion system, Pakistan would run out of its estimated plutonium stock (as of 2013) after producing just 12 warheads. Second, any such device would be untested.<br /><br />An alternative for Pakistan is to reject the implosion system altogether and produce a simple gun-type HEU device – essentially a highly miniaturized version of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Such a device would need no testing and could be fitted into the Nasr. It would, however, go against the deeply-ingrained preference for implosion devices among Pakistan’s weapon-makers.<br /><br />Whatever its design options, Pakistan may also be facing greater constraints on its supply of fissile material than previously thought. While previous estimates put Pakistan’s arsenal size in 2018 at 140-150 warheads (and growing at the rate of about 10 warheads a year), a recent assessment suggests Pakistan’s dwindling domestic supply of uranium will limit its nuclear arsenal size to between 112 and 156 weapons. While such studies are necessarily speculative, it’s likely Pakistan will be forced to make hard choices when it allocates weapons-grade material among its growing array of missiles.<br /><br />Considering the Cold War Experience<br /><br />Pakistan could adopt more than one pathway toward miniaturizing a Nasr warhead, but how long would the process take? Information about the current state of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program is scarce, but U.S. and Soviet efforts at miniaturization during the early years of the Cold War provide some indications.<br /><br />In 1949, the United States began a project to develop nuclear artillery for battlefield use. Just four years later, a 280 mm cannon fired a shell with the new W-9 warhead, which airburst 10 kilometres away, with a yield of about 15 kilotons. The W-9 was a simple gun-type HEU fission device. Over the next decade, the United States would produce even smaller nuclear artillery, including a tiny plutonium linear implosion warhead that could be fired from a standard 155 mm artillery piece.<br /><br />The Soviets took longer to miniaturize. After they became a nuclear power in 1949, the Soviets struggled to catch up with the U.S. atomic artillery program, only producing small warheads in the early 1960s. By then, new nuclear-capable artillery rockets like the Luna-M had already superseded atomic cannons.<br /><br />Considering these time scales of 4-15 years, could Pakistan have developed a miniaturized device for the Nasr between the first indications of Cold Start in 2004 and the present?<br /><br />In developing a miniaturized warhead, the Pakistanis would have enjoyed two principal advantages over their Cold War counterparts. One, they would have had a head start, having worked on warhead designs since the 1970s. Khan notes that between 1983 and 1995, Pakistan carried out at least 24 “cold tests” of their nuclear devices (in which the bomb is detonated minus the fissile core).<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-61413218480950602292019-01-27T21:44:08.062-08:002019-01-27T21:44:08.062-08:00Massive Global Cost of #India-#Pakistan #Nuclear W...Massive Global Cost of #India-#Pakistan #Nuclear War. Far away from #SouthAsia, 1 to 2 billion people will die from starvation cased by the nuclear winter following nuclear exchange between the two countries. https://youtu.be/O0ZPt60sZ0s via @YouTubeRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-90098849062508830262018-11-09T16:17:44.278-08:002018-11-09T16:17:44.278-08:00#Pakistan Says #India's #nuclear #submarine #A...#Pakistan Says #India's #nuclear #submarine #Arihant deployment poses a threat to regional, international peace: "This development marks the first actual deployment of ready-to-fire nuclear warheads in South Asia.... No One Should Doubt Our Capabilities" https://www.news18.com/news/india/no-one-should-doubt-our-capabilities-pakistan-says-ins-arihant-deployment-shows-indias-bellicose-posturing-1933439.html<br /><br />Islamabad: Pakistan on Thursday expressed concern over the recent deployment of India's nuclear submarine INS Arihant, saying there should be no doubt about Islamabad's resolve and capabilities to meet the challenges in the nuclear and conventional realms in South Asia.<br /><br />"This development marks the first actual deployment of ready-to-fire nuclear warheads in South Asia which is a matter of concern not only for the Indian Ocean littoral states but also for the international community at large,” Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson Mohammad Faisal said.<br /><br />Nuclear-powered submarine INS Arihant successfully completed its first deterrence patrol this week, taking India into a club of a handful of countries which have the capability to design, construct and operate such a submarine or SSBN<br /><br />The spokesperson said the "bellicose" language employed by the top Indian leadership highlights the threats to strategic stability in South Asia and raises questions about responsible nuclear stewardship in India.<br /><br />He said the increased frequency of missile tests by India, aggressive posturing and deployment of nuclear weapons calls for an assessment of the non-proliferation benefits resulting from India's membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).<br /><br />The spokesperson said Pakistan is committed to the objective of strategic stability in South Asia and believes that the only way forward for both countries is to agree on measures for nuclear and missile restraint.<br /><br />"At the same time no one should be in doubt about Pakistan's resolve and capabilities to meet the challenges posed by the latest developments both in the nuclear and conventional realms in South Asia," he said.<br /><br />Replying to a question about the follow up of Prime Minister Imran Khan's recent visit to China, Faisal said a high-level Pakistan delegation will have talks with their counterparts in Beijing to sort out technical matters and finalise the modalities for further enhancing the existing bilateral and strategic cooperation between the two countries in diverse fields.<br /><br />On the proposed Afghanistan peace talks in Moscow, he said a Pakistan delegation led by an additional secretary will attend the dialogue.<br /><br />The spokesperson said Taliban leader Mullah Baradar was released to give an impetus to the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. He said Pakistan has always been emphasising the need for seeking a negotiated settlement on the Afghan issue with the participation of all stakeholders.<br /><br />He said it is a matter of concern that a recent American report points out that the Afghan administration and the foreign forces are losing control over the security situation in the war-torn country. Responding to questions on Christian woman Asia Bibi who was recently released from jail, Faisal said she is still in Pakistan at a safe location.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-1788357552513489302018-08-14T08:03:15.615-07:002018-08-14T08:03:15.615-07:00#Pakistan’s first remote sensing #satellite and Pa...#Pakistan’s first remote sensing #satellite and Pakistan’s indigenous #Technology Evaluation Satellite (PakTES-1A) have become fully operational, according to the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform. #space <br /><br />https://www.geo.tv/latest/207416-pakistans-first-remote-sensing-satellite-becomes-operational<br /><br />The satellites were successfully launched from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre, China on July 9, 2018.<br /><br />The planning, development and reform ministry shared the news on its social media: “After the successful tests in the orbit, the #satellites are fully operational and today, the control of PRSS-1 Satellite has been successfully transferred to Ground Control Stations in #Pakistan!”<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-60619624226748650742018-07-10T15:46:11.728-07:002018-07-10T15:46:11.728-07:00Two #Pakistani #Satellites launched into orbit by ...Two #Pakistani #Satellites launched into orbit by #China: #Pakistan Remote Sensing Satellite-1 (PRSS-1) for day/night surveillance, PakTES-1A satellite, a scientific experiment satellite designed and developed by #Pakistan #space agency #SUPARCO <br /><br /> http://spacenews.com/two-chinese-launches-in-24-hours-deliver-pakistan-satellites-beidou-backup-to-orbit/<br /><br /><br />China launched twice July 9, with an early Long March 2C launch of two satellites for Pakistan into low Earth orbit being followed up with a Long March 3A mission to back up China’s Beidou navigation satellite system.<br /><br />The first launch saw the Pakistan Remote Sensing Satellite-1 (PRSS-1) lofted from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in a desert region of Gansu province, northwest China, at 03:56 UTC July 9 (11:56 p.m. Eastern July 8).<br /><br />The optical satellite was put into a 588 by 624 kilometer orbit inclined by 98 degrees by the Long March 2C/SMA configuration which uses an upper stage.<br /><br />PRSS-1 was developed by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) and is based on a CAST-2000 satellite bus. Its imaging system provides panchromatic and multispectral imaging at 1-meter and 4-meter resolution, respectively, with a swarth width of around 60 kilometers.<br /><br />It will be used for land and resources surveying, monitoring of natural disasters, agriculture research, urban construction and providing remote-sensing information for the establishment of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and in the Belt and Road initiative, according to Chinese state media.<br /><br />PRSS-1 was accompanied by the smaller PakTES-1A satellite, a scientific experiment satellite designed and developed by Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO).<br /><br />CAST is a subsidiary of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the main contractor for the Chinese space program, which also provided the launch service. CAST also stated it provided training to Pakistan personnel as part of the satellite package, with SUPARCO to operate PRSS-1 after on-orbit delivery.<br /><br />China has in recent years adopted a strategy of offering turnkey projects which include satellite manufacture and launch as well as possible financing mechanisms. The country has launched communications and other satellites for countries including Belarus, Laos, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nigeria.<br /><br /><br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-84856025174482115702018-05-19T09:29:23.450-07:002018-05-19T09:29:23.450-07:00#Pakistan allocates US$40.7m to #space agency for ...#Pakistan allocates US$40.7m to #space agency for 2018-19 for satellite development PakNav for navigation, PakSat communication, Remote sensing defense apps http://www.spacetechasia.com/pakistan-allocates-us40-7m-to-space-agency-for-2018-19/ … via @SpaceTech Asia<br /><br />Pakistan, in its latest budget released on 27 April 2018, has allocated PKR4.7 billion (~US$40.7 million) to Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Organisation (SUPARCO). This is a 34% jump over the previous year’s budget allocation.<br /><br />According to a report by Dawn News, this year’s budget includes PKR2.55 billion (~US$22 million) for three new programs:<br /><br />US$11.7 million for Multi-Mission Satellite (PakSat- MM1) dedicated to live satellite television, broadband data transmission and emergency telecommunications services.<br />US$8.7 million for three “Pakistan Space Centre” sites in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad.<br />US$1.7 million for the establishment of a “Space Application Research Centre” in Karachi.<br />The intention is to reduce reliance on foreign entities and satellites and develop indigenous capabilities and because of the “changing scenario in the region” [presumably in the geopolitical sense] according to the Dawn News report.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-48456467941395731852018-05-04T08:18:42.362-07:002018-05-04T08:18:42.362-07:00The Link Between Space Launch and Missile Technolo...The Link Between Space Launch and Missile Technology<br />March 16, 2000 By Gary Milhollin<br />Presentation at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies<br />Honolulu, Hawaii<br /><br />https://www.wisconsinproject.org/the-link-between-space-launch-and-missile-technology/<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />In 1963, NASA began the Indian rocket program. NASA launched a U.S. sounding rocket from India’s first test range, which the United States helped design. We also trained the first groups of Indian rocket scientists. NASA invited them to NASA’s Wallops Island test site located southeast of Washington, DC in Virginia.<br /><br />While at NASA, Mr. A.P. Kalam, a member of the Indian delegation, learned about the U.S. Scout rocket, which was being flown at Wallops Island. The Scout was the only four-stage, solid-fueled, small payload space launcher in the world. Indian engineers saw the Scout’s blueprints during their visit. Two years later, the head of India’s Atomic Energy Commission asked NASA for design information about the Scout. Mr. Kalam then proceeded to build India’s first big rocket, the SLV-3, which became the only other four-stage, solid-fueled, small payload space launcher in the world. It was an exact copy of the Scout. The first stage of the Scout then became the first stage of India’s first large ballistic missile, the Agni-I. The Agni-I’s second stage was liquid-fueled, and was based on a surface-to-air missile called the SA-2 that India bought from Russia.<br /><br />France also helped India master liquid-fuel technology by selling India the technology used to build the “Viking” engine used on the Ariane space launcher. India calls its version the “Vikas.” The Agni also needed a guidance system. The German Space Agency obliged with a long tutorial in rocket guidance, which allowed India to develop a guidance system and learn how to produce its components (gyroscopes, accelerometers and so forth). The German Space Agency also tested a model of the first stage of the SLV-3 in one of its wind tunnels in Cologne and helped India build its own rocket test facilities. Germany also trained Indians in how to make composite materials.<br /><br /><br /><br />--------------<br /><br /><br /><br />The story in Pakistan is similar. NASA launched Pakistan’s first rocket in 1962. Pakistan’s project was also led by the head of Pakistan’s Atomic Energy Commission. We must wonder what was going through NASA’s mind at this time – it keeps getting requests for space cooperation from the heads of atomic energy commissions. Apparently NASA thought this was normal. NASA also trained Pakistani rocket scientists at Wallops Island, and launched rockets in Pakistan until 1970.<br /><br />-------------------<br /><br />We can see that our cooperation with India and Pakistan was a mistake. Both countries are now making nuclear missiles.<br /><br /><br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-5863158214172629212018-03-31T16:02:43.042-07:002018-03-31T16:02:43.042-07:00Could China Help Pakistan Make Its Nuclear Arsenal...Could China Help Pakistan Make Its Nuclear Arsenal Even Deadlier?<br /><br />http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-china-help-pakistan-make-its-nuclear-arsenal-even-25158<br /><br />Testifying before Congress in March, U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency director Robert Ashley confirmed that “In January 2017, Pakistan conducted the first test launch of its nuclear-capable Ababeel ballistic missile, demonstrating South Asia’s first MIRV payload.”<br /><br />Analysts believe Pakistan’s MIRV technology has yet to be perfected, but the latest acquisition of a Chinese optical system will significantly aid development.<br /><br />In missile testing, optical systems consist of specialized telescopes equipped with a high-speed camera, infrared detector, laser ranger, and a tracking system that captures and follows targets. With this system, missile designers are able to view high-resolution images from each stage of the missile including launch, separation, re-entry and the release of warheads.<br /><br />The Chinese system that Pakistan acquired is unique for its four telescope units. Each unit is placed at a different location to capture highly detailed and accurate images from multiple angles. With multiple warheads, the additional telescopes allow the system to more easily track each warhead simultaneously.<br /><br />Rong Jili, Beijing Institute of Technology’s School of Aerospace Engineering’s deputy director, explained that high-quality optics are especially critical in the development of MIRVs. While radar and other tracking systems can collect more precise data at long distances, optical systems provide direct feedback.<br /><br />“Seeing it with our own eyes is completely different from mining dry data. It helps to not only diagnose problems, but also generate inspiration,” Rong told the South China Morning Post.<br /><br />A Chinese team spent three months in Pakistan assembling the system and training locals on how to use it.<br /><br />China has long partnered with Pakistan, covertly assisting the nation in developing nuclear weapons during the Cold War. More recently, China has helped Pakistan develop several nuclear reactors and regularly sells the nation fighter jets, submarines, short-range missiles and unmanned drones.<br /><br />In 2017, Pakistan bolstered its air defenses by spending $373 million on Chinese anti-air missiles to ward off Indian jets.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-79288624002047829022018-03-30T17:25:59.861-07:002018-03-30T17:25:59.861-07:00Pakistan Navy on March 29 announced that it has su...Pakistan Navy on March 29 announced that it has successfully test-fired a cruise missile that is capable of being launched from a submarine. Defence experts believe that it has brought Pakistan closer to India, its main rival.<br /><br />https://topyaps.com/pakistan-navy-missile<br /><br />The Pakistani Navy revealed that the missile launched was the submarine version of ‘Babur’ missile and was test fired from an underground platform with a range of striking at 450 kms. They also revealed that the missile can carry various payloads and has enhanced its nuclear second-strike capability.<br /><br />This is the second test of a missile of Babur class. The first test was reported in January last year and international defence analysts believe that this class of missiles was built by the inputs provided by the Chinese and Ukrainian navies.<br /><br />The cruise missiles have a peculiar advantage over ballistic missiles. The former are smaller and hence can be launched from the torperdo tubes of the submarines. This could be the reason why Pakistan has started to modify its existing fleet of three French-designed Agosta-98 submarines. These Babur class missiles can also be launched by eight diesel-electric submarines that Pakistan is buying from China.<br /><br /><br />The test has raised serious concerns in New Delhi as the missile’s low-altitude profile makes it best for ‘sneak’ attacks along India’s vast coastline. This has also raised an alarm over Indian Navy’s depleting fleet of submarines and the nearly-obsolete anti-submarine warfare capabilities.<br /><br />The Indian Navy still uses the outdated British Sea King helicopters for scanning the seas and launching quick attacks. These almost 50-years-old helicopters need to be replaced soon as they are an important part of the AWS capability.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-27347786281259988342018-03-29T11:09:22.736-07:002018-03-29T11:09:22.736-07:00#Pakistan successfully tests #submarine launched #...#Pakistan successfully tests #submarine launched #cruise #missile #Babur. Adds credible deterrence with 2nd strike #nuclear capability. #India<br /><br />https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/979408447363059713Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-31662681058287057822017-10-13T16:49:32.810-07:002017-10-13T16:49:32.810-07:00THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > OPINION
Securing Pakistan...THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > OPINION<br />Securing Pakistan’s nuclear assets<br /><br />By Zamir AkramPublished: October 13, 2017<br /><br />https://tribune.com.pk/story/1529618/securing-pakistans-nuclear-assets/<br /><br /><br />From Pakistan’s perspective, the greater threat to its nuclear assets has always been from the US or the Indians, rather than terrorists, and has taken robust measures to protect the safety and security of these assets. Accordingly, for Pakistan ensuring nuclear security is vital for ensuring national security. Had there been a window of vulnerability, the Americans would already have tried to penetrate it.<br /><br />-----------<br /><br />The Indian air chief’s recent boast about striking Pakistan’s nuclear installations has been dismissed by Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif with the contempt that it deserves. Not only is this threat contrary to the Pakistan-India agreement not to attack each other’s nuclear facilities but is nonsensical as Pakistan’s nuclear assets are not vulnerable to such an attack and would definitely invite a befitting response.<br /><br />These Indian fulminations are encouraged by the negative American narrative about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, repeated most recently in President Trump’s South Asia policy speech. It is an open secret that the US has contingency places to de-nuclearise Pakistan ever since the start of its strategic programme. After 9/11, the American narrative has alleged the threat of terrorists or extremist “insiders” taking over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons which would have to be “neutralised” before that happens. More recently, with the development of Pakistan’s low-yield or so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons to negate India’s Cold Start doctrine, the Americans allege that these weapons, when deployed in the field, would be vulnerable to terrorist takeover or lack effective command and control. Actually, such allegations are more in response to Pakistan’s rejection of American demands to accept unilateral restraints on its strategic deterrence efforts in response to the growing Indian conventional and nuclear threat rather than any credible terrorist or insider threat.<br /><br />-------------<br /><br />Pakistan has successfully defied American discrimination and intimidation. It is also cognisant of the emerging threats posed by cyber and electronic warfare, which require effective fire-walls and countervailing measures that have been put in place as part of the full-spectrum effort for the safety and security of our strategic assets.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-72943663737322799632017-10-13T07:42:32.565-07:002017-10-13T07:42:32.565-07:00The Risks of Pakistan's Sea-Based Nuclear Weap...The Risks of Pakistan's Sea-Based Nuclear Weapons<br />The Babur-3 opens a dangerous era for Pakistan’s nuclear forces.<br /><br /><br />By Ankit Panda<br />October 13, 2017<br /><br />https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/the-risks-of-pakistans-sea-based-nuclear-weapons/<br /><br />Nine days into 2017, Pakistan carried out the first-ever flight test of the Babur-3, it’s new nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). A variant of the Babur-3 ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM), this SLCM will see Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent head to sea—probably initially aboard its Agosta 90B and Agosta 70 submarines, but eventually, perhaps even on board new Type 041 Yuan-class submarines Pakistan is expected to procure from China.<br /><br />In a new article in the Fall 2017 issue of the Washington Quarterly, Christopher Clary and I examine some of the novel security challenges Pakistan may experience with its sea-based deterrent. It is already well known that Pakistan has outpaced it’s primary rival, India, in terms of its nuclear stockpile growth.<br /><br />On land, low-yield systems, like the Nasr, have also raised concerns of a lower nuclear-use threshold in South Asia. The move to sea can have some positive effects on overall strategic stability; indeed, the perceived survivability of a sea-based deterrent can abate so-called “use-it-or-lose-it” pressures for Pakistan’s land-based forces. But the story doesn’t stop there.<br /><br />Sea-based weapons can aggravate crisis stability concerns in the India-Pakistan dyad and present unique command-and-control challenges for Pakistan, which may be required to place these weapons at a higher level of readiness during peacetime. Finally, Pakistan’s internal security environment will remain a concern with a submarine-based deterrent. The threat of theft and sabotage may be greater in the case of Pakistan’s sea-based weapons than it is for its land-based forces. In aggregate, we argue that the sea-based deterrent may, on balance, prove detrimental to Pakistan’s security.<br /><br />Pakistan, like other nuclear states, employs a range of physical and procedural safeguards to ensure that its nuclear weapons are only used in a crisis and a with a valid order from the country’s National Command Authority (NCA). The introduction of a nuclear-capable SLCM aboard its Agosta submarines would necessitate the erosion of some of these safeguards.<br /><br />For instance, some physical safeguards that Pakistan is known to use for its land-based weapons — including partially dissembled storage, separation of triggers and pits, and de-mated storage — would be impractical at sea. Meanwhile, the experience of other nuclear states, like the United Kingdom, with sea-based deterrents suggests that sea-based nuclear weapons generally see fewer use impediments. Pakistan has long asserted that its nuclear command-and-control is highly centralized, but it remains doubtful that this would remain true for its small nuclear-capable submarine force in wartime or a crisis. The temptation to pre-delegate use authorization may be too great.<br /><br />---<br />Similarly, Indian forces, unable to discriminate whether a detected Pakistani submarine in a crisis was fielding nuclear or conventional capabilities, would have to presume nuclear capability should the Babur-3 see deployment. All of this in turn not only would make Pakistan’s submarine force a prime early-crisis target for Indian forces, but also aggravate use-or-lose pressures for land-based forces.<br /><br />Ultimately, even if India resisted attacking Pakistani submarines to avoid unintended escalatory pressures, it would at least see value in targeting the Very Low Frequency (VLF) radar facility established at Karachi in November 2016 that would allow Pakistan’s NCA to communicate with its at-sea deterrent in a crisis. This would require some confidence in New Delhi that Pakistan had not pre-delegated use authorization and that Islamabad’s sea-based weapons would still require the transmission of a use-authorization code from the NCA.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-1708168138580229202017-03-31T08:33:29.121-07:002017-03-31T08:33:29.121-07:00#India, Long at Odds With #Pakistan, May Use #Nucl...#India, Long at Odds With #Pakistan, May Use #Nuclear First Strikes Against Neighbor<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/asia/india-long-at-odds-with-pakistan-may-be-rethinking-nuclear-first-strikes.html<br /><br />Use It or Lose It<br /><br />Shashank Joshi, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said he suspected that Mr. Menon was signaling something subtler: a warning that India’s strategy could adapt in wartime, potentially to include first strikes.<br /><br />That distinction may be important to Indian officials, but it could be lost on Pakistani war planners who have to consider all scenarios.<br /><br />Mr. Joshi, in a policy brief for the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, tried to project what would happen if India embraced such a policy, or if Pakistan concluded that it had.<br /><br />First would come the arms race.<br /><br />The fear of a first strike, Mr. Joshi wrote, “incentivizes Pakistan to undertake a massive nuclear buildup, in order to dispel any possibility of India disarming it entirely.”<br /><br />India, whatever its strategy, would feel compelled to keep pace.<br /><br />Second comes the tightening of nuclear tripwires, Mr. Joshi warned, as “this reciprocal fear of first use could pull each side in the direction of placing nuclear forces on hair-trigger alert.”<br /><br />Finally, in any major armed crisis, the logic of a first strike would pull both sides toward nuclear escalation.<br /><br />“If Pakistan thinks India will move quickly, Pakistan has an incentive to go even quicker, and to escalate straight to the use of the longer-range weapons,” Mr. Joshi wrote.<br /><br />This thinking would apply to India as well, creating a situation in which the nuclear arsenal becomes, as analysts dryly put it, “use it or lose it.”<br /><br />‘That Can Blow Back Real Quick’<br /><br />The most optimistic scenario would lock South Asia in a state of mutually assured destruction, like that of the Cold War, in which armed conflict would so reliably escalate to nuclear devastation that both sides would deem war unthinkable.<br /><br />This would be of global concern. A 2008 study found that, although India and Pakistan have relatively small arsenals, a full nuclear exchange would push a layer of hot, black smoke into the atmosphere.<br /><br />This would produce what some researchers call without hyperbole “a decade without summer.” As crops failed worldwide, the resulting global famine would kill a billion people, the study estimated.<br /><br />But nuclear analysts worry that South Asia’s dynamics would make any state of mutually assured destruction less stable than that of the Cold War.<br /><br /><br />For one thing, Pakistani leaders view even conventional war with India as an existential threat, making them more willing to accept nuclear risks. For another, a large-scale terrorist attack in India could be perceived, rightly or wrongly, as Pakistan-sponsored, potentially inciting war. The disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir, where conflict sometimes boils over, adds a troubling layer of volatility.<br /><br />“Maybe it is this Reaganesque strategy,” Mr. Narang said, comparing India’s potential strategic shift to President Ronald Reagan’s arms race with the Soviet Union. “But Pakistan has a much bigger security problem than the Soviet Union did. And that can blow back real quick.”Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-29253655040765630862017-03-31T08:13:10.423-07:002017-03-31T08:13:10.423-07:00#India, Long at Odds With #Pakistan, May Use #Nucl...#India, Long at Odds With #Pakistan, May Use #Nuclear First Strikes Against Neighbor<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/asia/india-long-at-odds-with-pakistan-may-be-rethinking-nuclear-first-strikes.html<br /><br /><br />India may be reinterpreting its nuclear weapons doctrine, circumstantial evidence suggests, with potentially significant ramifications for the already tenuous nuclear balance in South Asia.<br /><br />New assessments suggest that India is considering allowing for pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Pakistan’s arsenal in the event of a war. This would not formally change India’s nuclear doctrine, which bars it from launching a first strike, but would loosen its interpretation to deem pre-emptive strikes as defensive.<br /><br />It would also change India’s likely targets, in the event of a war, to make a nuclear exchange more winnable and, therefore, more thinkable.<br /><br />Analysts’ assessments, based on recent statements by senior Indian officials, are necessarily speculative. States with nuclear weapons often leave ambiguity in their doctrines to prevent adversaries from exploiting gaps in their proscriptions and to preserve flexibility. But signs of a strategic adjustment in India are mounting.<br /><br />This comes against a backdrop of long-simmering tensions between India and Pakistan — including over state-sponsored terrorism and the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir — which have already led to several wars, the most recent in 1999.<br /><br />The new interpretation would be a significant shift in India’s posture that could have far-reaching implications in the region, even if war never comes. Pakistan could feel compelled to expand its arsenal to better survive a pre-emptive strike, in turn setting off an Indian buildup.<br /><br />This would be more than an arms race, said Vipin Narang, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor who studies nuclear powers.<br /><br />“It’s very scary because all the ‘first-strike instability’ stuff is real,” Mr. Narang said, referring to a dynamic in which two nuclear adversaries both perceive a strong incentive to use their warheads first in a war. This is thought to make nuclear conflict more likely.<br /><br />Hidden in Plain Sight<br /><br />Hints of a high-level Indian debate over the nuclear doctrine mounted with a recent memoir by Shivshankar Menon, India’s national security adviser from 2011 to 2014.<br /><br />“There is a potential gray area as to when India would use nuclear weapons first” against a nuclear-armed adversary, Mr. Menon wrote.<br /><br />India, he added, “might find it useful to strike first” against an adversary that appeared poised to launch or that “had declared it would certainly use its weapons” — most likely a veiled reference to Pakistan.<br /><br />Mr. Narang presented the quotations, along with his interpretation, in Washington last week, during a major nuclear policy conference hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.<br /><br />“There is increasing evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first,” he told a gathering of international government officials and policy experts.<br /><br />Mr. Menon’s book, he said, “clearly carves out an exception for pre-emptive Indian first use in the very scenario that is most likely to occur in South Asia.”<br /><br />The passage alone does not prove a policy shift. But in context alongside other developments, it suggests either that India has quietly widened its strategic options or that officials are hoping to stir up just enough ambiguity to deter its adversaries.<br /><br />After Mr. Narang’s presentation generated attention in the South Asian news media, Mr. Menon told an Indian columnist, “India’s nuclear doctrine has far greater flexibility than it gets credit for.”<br /><br />Mr. Menon declined an interview request for this article. When told what the article would say, he did not challenge its assertions. India’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.<br /><br />Whether these signals indicate a real shift or a strategic feint, analysts believe they are intended to right a strategic imbalance that has been growing for almost a decade.<br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-12400033856211280022017-03-22T10:18:50.389-07:002017-03-22T10:18:50.389-07:00MIT's Vipin Narang: #India prepared to use #nu...MIT's Vipin Narang: #India prepared to use #nuclear weapons against #Pakistan first. #NFU #nukes<br /><br />http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/speculation-in-washington-about-nuclear-doctrinal-changes-by-india-117032101292_1.html<br /><br />A day after Business Standard reported a new approach in New Delhi strategic circles to India’s use of nuclear weapons (Click here to read the article), the influential Washington D.C. think tank, Carnegie Endowment, discussed the same issue --- the possibility of an Indian “first strike” to defang Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.<br /><br />At the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday, a prestigious annual event at which important strategic policy chances are often signalled, a discussion took place on whether India was moving away from massive counter-value retaliation (i.e. nuking towns and cities) to counter-force targeting (i.e. nuking enemy nuclear forces and command structures).<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor, Vipin Narang, outlined a scenario in which a Pakistan-backed terrorist strike on India killed scores of civilians. New Delhi mobilised its three strike corps and attacked Pakistan. With the armour-heavy 21 Corps bludgeoning along, Pakistan ordered a “demonstration” strike with tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) --- its short-range Nasr missile batteries --- as a nuclear warning to India. New Delhi’s response, according to traditional Indian nuclear doctrine would then be “massive counter-value retaliation against Pakistani cities, leaving aside how credible or incredible that might be.”<br /><br />But then Narang sprung the surprise. “There is increasing evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theatre, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’ that attempts to completely disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons so that India does not have to engage in… tit-for-tat exchanges and expose its own cities to nuclear destruction.”<br /><br />Narang pointed out that this dramatic change did not surface from “fringe voices”, but from former national security advisor Shivshankar Menon in his new book; and former chief of India’s strategic forces command, Lieutenant General B S Nagal, both of whom have questioned India’s traditional “massive counter-value retaliation”.<br /><br />Narang pointed to a possible “decoupling” of Indian nuclear strategy vis-a-vis China and Pakistan. While retaining NFU and massive counter-value retaliation against China, New Delhi was considering a disarming counter-force strike against Pakistan.<br /><br />Also in question was India’s longstanding “no first use” (NFU) policy, with Narang pointing out that it had been questioned at least four times already. First, India’s official nuclear doctrine, published in 2003, officially eroded the sanctity of NFU by invoking nuclear use against chemical or biological weapons. Second, in November, former defence minister Manohar Parrikar stated (later clarified to be in his personal capacity): “India should not declare whether it has a NFU policy”. Third, General Nagal, in his writings questioned the morality of NFU, asking whether it was possible for India’s leadership to accept huge casualties by restraining its hand well knowing that Pakistan was about to use nuclear weapons.<br /><br />Fourth, Menon undermines NFU’s sanctity with this paragraph in his book: “There is a potential grey area as to when India would use nuclear weapons first against another NWS (nuclear weapons state). Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against an NWS that had declared it would certainly use its weapons, and if India were certain that adversary’s launch was imminent.”<br /><br />Said Narang at Carnegie: “Indian leaders can disavow all of this as personal opinions, but when a sitting defence minister, former Strategic Forces commander, and highly respected NSA all question the sanctity of NFU, it all starts to add up.”Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-66179819731135498362017-03-02T21:05:30.870-08:002017-03-02T21:05:30.870-08:00#Asia's quiet #superpower: #Pakistan Army’s te...#Asia's quiet #superpower: #Pakistan Army’s teetering balance between #Saudi and #Iran https://shar.es/1Ufb30 via @MiddleEastEye<br /><br />By Kamal Alam, Visiting Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, UK<br /><br />When one thinks of the Pakistan Army, one does not instinctively think of a force that is relevant to conflicts in the Middle East. Yet increasingly – and without actually being involved in any operations - it is the most influential military in the region. <br /><br />Who will lead the Islamic NATO, a new Saudi-led, terrorist-fighting military alliance? None other than Pakistan’s General Raheel Sharif<br />It has trained more Arab armies than any other country and has been present both in a combat role in the Arab-Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973 and also provided mentorship as the Gulf countries' armies were founded.<br /><br />This is mostly thanks to the legacy of the British Indian Army, which was one-third Muslim, and which the British relied on to pacify the hostility of Arab Muslims when it marched through Jerusalem, Damascus and Baghdad. After India’s partition in 1947, these troops became the founders of the Pakistan military and thus began a long relationship that exists to this day.<br /><br />After the fall of Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi army, and Iran’s rising influence across the Middle East, the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, have looked to Pakistan as the final guarantor.<br /><br />When the current Pakistan Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Bajwa recently stated that Pakistan views Saudi Arabia’s protection as its own, it was seen as an indirect warning to Iran and the terrorist groups threatening Saudi Arabia.<br /><br />And who will lead the "Islamic NATO", a new Saudi-led, terrorist-fighting military alliance? None other than Pakistan’s General Raheel Sharif.<br /><br />Surprise announcements<br /><br />Though it was rumoured for a good year before his retirement, when Defence Minister Khwaja Asif confirmed Sharif’s appointment to the "Muslim NATO" a few weeks ago, it came as a surprise to the Pakistani parliament in much the same way as the announcement two years ago that Pakistan was to participate in the Saudi-led war in Yemen.<br /><br />There was a furore in the GCC when, after the surprise announcement, the Pakistani military eventually refused the role in Yemen in 2015. The UAE even cancelled visa waivers for Pakistani military officials, a process that had existed for decades, while leading Kuwait and Saudi state-owned media attacked Pakistan and how it had back-stabbed its "brothers" in the Gulf.<br /><br />Pakistan itself was split down the middle over Yemen. The majority of the military was apparently in favour of the army’s participation. However, given Operation Zarb e Azb, in which the army was targeting cross-border violence and domestic terrorist groups on the Afghan border in North Waziristan, the military was overstretched fighting its own war on terror.<br /><br />Ultimately, Pakistan did not take part in Yemen with troops on the ground, but did provide border support to guard Saudi sovereignty and offer advice during the air campaign.<br /><br />However, two years down the line, with Pakistan military’s operations winding down in the northwest of its country, there is increased stability within the army and, tactically speaking, troops are now available. So the question of a more active role for Pakistan in Yemen may arise again. <br /><br />One of the main reasons Saudi Arabia is going back to Pakistan for help, despite its previous refusal in Yemen, is that Pakistan and General Raheel Sharif himself warned that ground operations in Yemen were futile given the terrain, and proximity to the sea making impractical the use of the hammer and anvil tactic - and they were proven right.<br /><br />While Pakistan will definitely not put troops in Yemen (Sharif has made that clear), the army can help by mediating conflict resolution mechanisms it used with success in Waziristan and Swat Valley.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-30788277207275400742017-01-31T07:37:07.270-08:002017-01-31T07:37:07.270-08:00#Pakistan steps up #missile tests to counter #Indi...#Pakistan steps up #missile tests to counter #India #defence push https://www.ft.com/content/a66fdc8c-e6b1-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539 … via @FT<br /><br />Pakistan is ramping up nuclear missile tests in response to India’s drive to modernise its armed forces, increasing already heightened tensions between the two countries, military and political analysts warn.<br /><br />Islamabad last week conducted its first flight test of the surface-to-surface Ababeel missile, which has a range of 2,200km and which officials and analysts say marks a significant step forward in the country’s ability to target locations in India. The move followed Pakistan’s first ballistic missile launch from a submarine earlier this month.<br /><br />“Taken together, these tests prove Pakistan’s ability to go for an outright war if war is imposed on us,” a senior Pakistani foreign ministry official told the Financial Times.<br /><br />Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours have been tense ever since the partition that followed independence from Britain in 1947. They have fought three major wars, largely for control of the disputed state of Kashmir.<br /><br /><br />--------<br /><br />“If Pakistan has a ‘second-strike’ capability, it could make it more assertive and potentially more willing to launch a first attack against India,” said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, senior fellow for South Asia at the International institute for Strategic Studies.<br /><br />Pakistani officials last week warned they were ready to use nuclear weapons against India in the event of an invasion by its neighbour. This followed an admission by Bipin Rawat, head of the Indian army, that the country had a plan to send troops across the border if it suffered a terror attack believed to originate in Pakistan.<br /><br />------<br /><br />Tariq Rauf, head of the disarmament programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said Pakistan’s response was a reaction to the build-up of India’s conventional military forces.<br /><br />“If you look at deployment of India’s forces which can seize and hold territory, 75 per cent of the forces are within reach of the border [with Pakistan],” he said.<br /><br />Ikram Sehgal, a prominent Pakistani commentator on defence and security affairs, said: “Pakistan cannot match India’s planned spending on conventional arms. The route that Pakistan is taking is to build up its strategic forces for a credible response if the Indians ever cross over [into Pakistan].”<br /><br />After its submarine-based missile test, Islamabad said: “The successful attainment of a second-strike capability by Pakistan represents a major scientific milestone. It is manifestation of the strategy of measured response to nuclear strategies and postures being adopted in Pakistan’s neighbourhood.”<br /><br />An official described the Ababeel missile — the first in Pakistan’s arsenal able to launch multiple warheads at different targets — “the successful completion of our deterrence”.<br /><br />While most experts believe the threat of nuclear war between the two neighbours remains low, some warn about the risks of an accident caused by trigger-happy military leaders. <br /><br />“Unlike the old days when the Soviet Union and the United States did not share a common border, India and Pakistan share a land border,” said one senior western diplomat with responsibility for monitoring the two militaries. “The risk of one side accidentally going to war is higher.”<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-86411928281856511092017-01-24T08:47:47.932-08:002017-01-24T08:47:47.932-08:00#Pakistan successfully tests #Ababeel, 2200 Km ran...#Pakistan successfully tests #Ababeel, 2200 Km range #nuclear-capable #missile that can deliver multiple war heads<br /><br />http://www.dawn.com/news/1310452<br /><br />Pakistan on Tuesday conducted a successful test flight of the Ababeel surface-to-surface ballistic missile (SSM), the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement.<br /><br />Ababeel has a maximum range of 2,200 kilometres and is capable of delivering multiple warheads using Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, an ISPR press release added.<br /><br />"The test flight was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system," it said.<br /><br />Ababeel is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and has the capability to engage multiple targets with high precision, defeating hostile radars, the ISPR elaborated.<br /><br />"The development of the Ababeel weapon system was aimed at ensuring survivability of Pakistan's ballistic missiles in the growing regional Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) environment," read the press release.<br /><br />The Ababeel test came on the heels of a successful test of submarine-launched cruise missile Babur-III earlier this month.<br /><br />"The successful attainment of a second strike capability by Pakistan represents a major scientific milestone; it is manifestation of the strategy of measured response to nuclear strategies and postures being adopted in Pakistan’s neighborhood," the military had said after the Babur-III test.<br /><br />The missile, launched from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean from an underwater, mobile platform, had hit its target with precise accuracy, the Army had said.<br /><br />Babur-III is a sea-based variant of ground-launched cruise missile Babur-II, which was successfully tested in December last year.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.com